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Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible?
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tehvoid

Пользователь с Oct 06, 2010  2 сообщений tehvoid Feb 21 2012 at 21:02
Looking over the top gainers from this current month's contest (some are already > 3000% for the first 20 days), I have to wonder:

Let's say you take the guy in first right now. (Currently at 3198.20% gain) Now, let's pretend he actually threw down $50,000 in the beginning, and instead of trading demo, he traded a real account with the SAME EXACT trades he's been doing, trade for trade.

Would he still be at 3198% gain at this point?

I almost have a hard time believing this. What's more likely to me is that whatever broker he's using would either screw him over during live trades so that his gain is not so high, or perhaps see the gains he's making and then do something 'shifty' behind scenes and take profit from it and he would end up with very little.

Any thoughts/comments?

Splexin

Пользователь с Apr 11, 2011  202 сообщений Splexin Feb 22 2012 at 05:49 (Отредактировано Feb 22 2012 at 05:49 )
The short answer is no.

If it were possible, that individual would make headline news and everyone would know about them by now. I have seen someone work hard and double a $25K deposit in 1 month, but 100% gain is not nearly as unrealistic as 3000%.

DrVodka

Пользователь с Dec 16, 2011  142 сообщений DrVodka Feb 22 2012 at 08:58
why not !!??? ... i think it is very posible ...it may not be 3000 % but 1000 % easy .. very HIGH risk strategies . HIGH risk HIGH rewards ..


Splexin

Пользователь с Apr 11, 2011  202 сообщений Splexin Feb 22 2012 at 09:03 (Отредактировано Feb 22 2012 at 09:04 )

   DrVodka posted:
   why not !!??? ... i think it is very posible ...it may not be 3000 % but 1000 % easy .. very HIGH risk strategies . HIGH risk HIGH rewards ..


Forex market was open to retail traders in 1997. But 15 years later, this so called 'easy' feat has still not been proven by anybody to my knowledge...even with the advent of high-performance computers and sophisticated programmers....

If you start trading 10-20 lots at ANY broker you will encounter major slippage and off-quotes that will make it extremely difficult to repeat what people have been doing on demo. I have heard from individuals at firms that trading 50 lots can even take several minutes to fill or close.

I think it would be wiser to focus on more realistic gains, in my opinion.

porquilho

Пользователь с Nov 13, 2010  44 сообщений porquilho Feb 23 2012 at 13:55
Yes its possible. and as you can see from >2000 people, there are 5 over 1000% . So its 5 in 2000. About the lots thing, is not a point, since we are talking about percentage gain. i could try to do that with 100 or 200 euros instead of 50k and there would be no 50 lots :p

myfxpt

Пользователь с Aug 06, 2011  299 сообщений Gary Sharp (myfxpt) Feb 24 2012 at 20:58
With nearly 80% drawdown there's no way I would risk $50k real money on this strategy. It would be refreshingly more realistic to see competitions that consider drawdown, win/lose ratio, stop-loss risk percentage, and other parameters that look at the overall trading picture and not just the highest return over the shortest period of time.

Splexin

Пользователь с Apr 11, 2011  202 сообщений Splexin Feb 25 2012 at 04:42

   myfxpt posted:
   With nearly 80% drawdown there's no way I would risk $50k real money on this strategy. It would be refreshingly more realistic to see competitions that consider drawdown, win/lose ratio, stop-loss risk percentage, and other parameters that look at the overall trading picture and not just the highest return over the shortest period of time.

Alpari held a contest like that.....wish they would host one here smiley

OnTheEdge

Пользователь с Mar 20, 2011  16 сообщений OnTheEdge Feb 25 2012 at 10:17
Yes, it is possible to achieve these kinds of results on a regular bases. But I don't know if it can be done month after month with consistency.

However, take a look at this thread over at fxcm they have a micro contest with some nice prizes each month (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/) most of the winners are making at least 1000% return on their money.

The October 2011 winner made over 12,000% for that month.
 (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/433466-octobers-contest-results-winner-returns-12-725-31-a.html)

There has been at least 1 or more traders who have won the contest more than once.

In the end I think these demo accounts are a little skewed to the traders advantage but clearly from the fxcm micro contest which is a live contest these results can be achieved.

I would venture to say that because we are human we can not maintain these high win ratios over time for several reasons, inconstancy overtime, market conditions, mood swings, external pressures, etc.

And if your using a robot the market conditions will change and performance will fall or fail over time.

OnTheEdge

Пользователь с Mar 20, 2011  16 сообщений OnTheEdge Feb 25 2012 at 11:04

   Splexin posted:
   The short answer is no.

If it were possible, that individual would make headline news and everyone would know about them by now. I have seen someone work hard and double a $25K deposit in 1 month, but 100% gain is not nearly as unrealistic as 3000%.


I disagree only because if you've read Market Wizards or New Market Wizards the author points out that many of the traders are relatively unknown even though they are/where managing 100+ mill.

Bill Lipschutz comes to mind.

A successful trader can remain relatively unknown if they so choose.

Splexin

Пользователь с Apr 11, 2011  202 сообщений Splexin Feb 25 2012 at 11:22
The main idea of OP's topic was gaining 3000%+ in 1 month using $50,000 real money. Statistically it's near impossible. I have yet to see anyone do it and if you know someone who has please steer me their direction. Like I said, if they existed SOMEONE would know about it because every major financial firm in the world would be trying to hire them. Heck, their own broker would try to hire them.

Micro accounts are a very different story-- far less risk-- though $500 to $25K is nothing to scoff at. eek

In re your second post-- BUT.....did they gain thousand %'s in a month????? That is the point. Most people, known or unknown, start out with a few thousand or maybe a hundred thousand but it takes years before they're successful. I know a guy who traded $1600 to over $100 million in just 8 years. Big whoop. And managing money is a whole different ballgame than trading your own.

IMO traders get too caught up in focusing on high % gain in short time (aka get rich quick), rather than consistency...

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