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pearlo

Member Since Mar 18, 2010  127 posts Marco Pearlo Encarnacion (pearlo) Sep 01 2011 at 06:16 (edited Sep 01 2011 at 06:17 )

NextLevelForex posted:
<b>Pips Expectancy</b> = ( Average Pips Win * Winning Trades % + Average Pips Loss * Losing Trades % ) <b> / 100</b>
    = 17.71 * 222 / 309 - 28.20 * 87 / 309 (used the average pip loss with the negative value, as it is, here)
 ~= 12.72 - 7.94
    = <b>4.78</b>


using the given formula i think it should be

Pips Expectancy = (17.71*222/309 + -28.20*87/309) / 100
  = (12.72 - 7.94) / 100
  = 4.78 /100
  = 0.0478

where did the <b> / 100</b> go? or did i miss something in the calculation? please correct me if im wrong. thanks.

..a forced kindness deserve no thanks,willingness to serve does not wait until it is asked for..
NextLevelForex

Member Since Apr 25, 2011  248 posts Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex) Sep 01 2011 at 06:23
I expressed the percentage for winning/losing trades as 0.xx already, so there is no need to divide that by 100.
Specifically, I said the winning trades % is 222 / 309, which is about 0.72. You can also express that as 72 / 100.

So if you are going to use the % as usual (for example, use a value of 72 for 72%), then dividing by 100 is necessary.
But if you are using the mathematical value, as Will (0.72) or I (222/309) did, then dividing by 100 should be skipped.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Chikot

Member Since Jan 14, 2010  2186 posts Chikot Sep 01 2011 at 06:24
anyone is sleeping here? eek

pearlo

Member Since Mar 18, 2010  127 posts Marco Pearlo Encarnacion (pearlo) Sep 01 2011 at 06:45 (edited Sep 01 2011 at 06:46 )

NextLevelForex posted:
    I expressed the percentage for winning/losing trades as 0.xx already, so there is no need to divide that by 100.
Specifically, I said the winning trades % is 222 / 309, which is about 0.72. You can also express that as 72 / 100.

So if you are going to use the % as usual (for example, use a value of 72 for 72%), then dividing by 100 is necessary.
But if you are using the mathematical value, as Will (0.72) or I (222/309) did, then dividing by 100 should be skipped.


thank you Remus for explaining.

NextLevelForex posted:
If Pips Expectancy is too low, let's say 2 pips, then any extra slippage and/or commission I could incur in my account, versus your 'master' account, could have significant negative effects to the performance I'll get.


What Pips Expectancy do consider as good? 5 and above? or as long as it wont fall from 2pips?

..a forced kindness deserve no thanks,willingness to serve does not wait until it is asked for..
NextLevelForex

Member Since Apr 25, 2011  248 posts Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex) Sep 01 2011 at 15:31
He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
NextLevelForex

Member Since Apr 25, 2011  248 posts Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex) Sep 01 2011 at 15:50
pearlo posted:
What Pips Expectancy do consider as good? 5 and above? or as long as it wont fall from 2pips?


That's a personal preference. I consider an average of 2 pips per trade to be the very minimum, just for the simple fact that I'm mostly using ECN accounts, which charge you commissions to execute the trades; so if you make an average of 1 pip per trade, and pay the broker 0.8 pips, how profitable do you think you can you get when you add up the other costs of doing business?

The lower the Pips Expectancy it is, the higher the chances that you'll get a high deviation from the 'expected' performance. Even 2 pips is low, and I'll use an EA that is making waves right now, with its astonishing returns (thousands of %):
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/milliondpips/million-dollar-pips/114107

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
pearlo

Member Since Mar 18, 2010  127 posts Marco Pearlo Encarnacion (pearlo) Sep 01 2011 at 23:41 (edited Sep 01 2011 at 23:46 )

NextLevelForex posted:
    A quick note regarding this suggestion I made:
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/suggestion-box/show-expectancy-pips-along-one/161504,1

..a forced kindness deserve no thanks,willingness to serve does not wait until it is asked for..
FXTopGunTrading

Member Since Sep 13, 2009  12 posts FX TopGun Trading (FXTopGunTrading) Sep 02 2011 at 22:31
Hi Remus Miclea

My name is Ben Williams.

Trade Style: Swing Trading/Short Term Trend Trader (5 to 10 days or less)

Trading Forex Since Jan 2005 with not much success until recently, after many many hours (a few years) of finally perfecting a short term trading method based on a very advance moving average cross-over system. Below is the post link to my trade acct.

Trades Per Month: Typically between 25 and 55 trades per month

Max Trade Duration: There's no max trade duration as a set/fixed amount of time (but one can be applied if need be). The method continuously tells me if a trade is valid or has become an invalid trade. In 5 yrs of backtesting no trade has remained open longer than 20 trading days (not counting the weekend). The system is constantly being monitor by me, data is being updated on an hourly bases while a trade is open.

Average Trade Duration: 16hrs to 72hrs

Pip Expectancy: 40.43 (if my calculation is correct)
Expectancy Ratio: 5.60

This trade method is a robust system which can be traded in any kind of market, ranging or trending with a built in feature that tells me when conditions are clear for taking a particular trade set-up. The method attempts to capture 100 pips per trade as long as the trade remains valid.

Best Regards,
Ben Williams

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXTopGunTrading/fxtopguntrading/143610

There's no greater power than the North Star : Live Free or Die Trying
SaltyWaters

Member Since Mar 22, 2010  191 posts 77z3-FX.com (SaltyWaters) Sep 03 2011 at 05:44
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SaltyWaters

Member Since Mar 22, 2010  191 posts 77z3-FX.com (SaltyWaters) Sep 03 2011 at 06:07
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