Posts by Splexin
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Comments welcome In General Feb 04 2013 at 19:00
The first system is incredibly deceptive using Custom Analysis. Go check "All" for the dates to see what they are hiding. Negative 48.5% gain and 84% drawdown. Or even use 01/2010 as starting point. Losing system. They have nice gains December 2012-present but their balance could be just a couple dollars. Anybody can tweak their results by adjusting starting/ending dates. Hiding balances also leaves out the capital perspective. As for the other systems, 14% gain in 2 years isn't all that could almost do better just investing the S&P. And wanting drawdown less than ......
[quote]chisha posted: Guys I'm planning on going live with FXSALT in a few weeks because I've enjoyed their demo which is pretty much exactly like their live account (with commissions and all being charged). Does anyone here know if they are a good broker or not? I mean I wouldn't want to lose all my hard-earned money for any other reason other than my own shortcomings when it comes to my trading style.[/quote] A good place to start is FPA........
[quote]bestdarngood posted: Oh, and I found this one to be very interesting and worth watching, if it continues to perform, it will fulfill your criteria I believe. Not sure what the system is like, but it looks good even though each month is steadily decreasing in amount of return, I'm assuming that they probably use a set trade size.[/quote] Guys, I'd be careful about the strategies you think to be some cases it is actually a shill promoting the broker. According to the broker's site here http://eng.fxclearing......
If you keep getting nervous I recommend looking up "Mark Douglas trading psychology." He has several books and videos widely available across the web. This guy basically saved my shirt when I was going through a rough period of losing confidence several years into my trading 'career'. My advice like others here is to risk less as you make more. Good luck
Also, to put things into perspective I went through one of my inactive accounts (I have 6 that I trade with). Monthly average profit for past 2 years? 3.27% Max Drawdown? 24.7% Here's the clincher! Although my current gain is positive, it's NOT in profit. It's actually in the red about $300 [lol] [tongue] So that's why earlier I was saying using "averages" really means nothing about the profitability of a system. I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of L......
No worries SIM, I know I am right on probability. But who says I have to make $1 a month with $20 balance to be in the category of 0.64%....12 months without a losing month? Why does my balance matter? (obviously for FX Guru's test but here I'm talking about the probabilities). That's why I added that to my post. I do not think the probability is 12 months no NET loss I think it means 12 months without ANY loss. I may have phrased it wrong the first time, or maybe I'm wrong about that....I personally didn't come up with this, but someone familiar with arcsine law was discussing optimal time t......
[quote]pip2cash posted: Hi FX Master, A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% ! Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%? Take a look at the link: The account leverage is 1:100 . Regards, SIM [/quote] Your average monthly p......
[quote]Financialarts posted: @ Splexin , I've worked on an ea which "bended" probability into a "wannabe" linear net gain equity curve, Check the results at It uses channel outbreak and probability to get net gain result. running a version of this one on a real mt4 account atm.[/quote] Looks pretty good. I had forgotten to mention linear regression as another plausible method. I'm currently testing an EA which was derived from optimization done in MATLAB using simple RSI (believe it or not) and price MA entry (ti......
[quote]Financialarts posted: @ Splexin , like the way you give probability's nd stuf. I believe you can use statistical probability to your advantage in trading forex.[/quote] Yes you can. There are lots of different statistical properties that you can exploit in Forex, more so with high-frequency trading but the average trader can still find opportunities. Examples include pair trading (if you can find mean-reverting currencies), triangular arbitrage (rare), momentum trading based on currency volatility, modeling interest rates and trading longer term, modeling price, trading certain pairs a......
Well, what does average monthly profit do anything to prove a strategy is sound? All you are looking for is something with returns distribution of 5% per could have something that does great one month (i.e. 90%) but the rest of the year loses. Could you suck on losing 3% per month for 11 months? The psychology will eventually get to you and you will choke. And because of that one great month you will believe in your strategy so much you will either trade more or trade bigger to the point that your losing months wipe you out. Even somebody who does have a system that reaps 5% a ......
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