EURSEK Exchange Rate

Investor sentiment in Germany grew for a tenth month and at a faster than expected pace in May to its highest level in over two years, on hopes of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in June and an increase in export demand from China, results of a survey revealed Tuesday. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed to 47.1 from 42.9 in April.

Sweden's central bank lowered its policy rate for the first time in eight years and signaled another two more rate reductions during the second half of the year as inflation approaches the target of around 2 percent amid the weak economic activity. The executive board of the Riksbank, led by Governor Erik Thedeen, decided to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent.

Germany's industrial production declined for the first time in three months in March driven by the decreases in consumer and intermediate goods output, official data revealed Wednesday. Industrial production declined 0.4 percent on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 1.7 percent increase in February, Destatis reported.

Germany's exports rebounded at a faster-than-expected pace in March, while industrial orders declined unexpectedly on weak domestic demand, pouring cold water on hopes of better economic recovery. Exports gained 0.9 percent on a monthly basis, reversing a 1.6 percent fall in February, which was revised from a 0.2 percent gain reported initially, Destatis said Tuesday. Shipments were forecast to

EUR/USD has dropped to 1.0800, influenced by the Fed and a cautious market. Today's focus is on the eurozone's January CPI release, expecting a dip to 2.7% YoY in the headline rate and 3.2% YoY in the core rate – the lowest since March 2022.

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from its recent low of 1.0450, but it could struggle to find enough buyers as it approaches the 1.0530/1.0550 range. The US dollar remains an unattractive sell, and there is currently no compelling narrative in the eurozone to counter the exceptionalism story in the United States.

EUR: Becalmed the EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting tight trading ranges, influenced significantly by US Treasury yields and USD/CNH movements in the relatively quiet summer market conditions. The short-term range appears to be fluctuating between 1.0850 and 1.0930, and a substantial breakout might not occur until the release of flash PMI readings for August, expected today.

Events in Russia have had little discernible impact on the FX market so far. Instead, the hot topic of high inflation and what policymakers are prepared to do about it remains the market's priority. This will be at the top of the agenda at this week's ECB's annual symposium in Sintra. Expect another mixed week in FX markets and possible BoJ intervention.