ATFX Market Outlook 6th February 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th February 2025

US Stock Futures Face Volatility as Gold Soars to Record High Amid Trade Anxiety

Opinion Today:

U.S. stock indices were volatile on Wednesday but closed higher, with the Dow gaining 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.41%, and the Nasdaq up 0.19%. The dollar fell to its lowest in over a week as trade war uncertainty, with the dollar index down 0.435% at 107.58. The euro gained 0.24% against the dollar, while the pound rose 0.2%. 

Gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,865.09 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade war concerns. In contrast, oil prices fell over 2% due to rising U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, indicating weak demand and worries about economic growth.

Today, attention is focused on the Bank of England's anticipated interest rate cut to 4.5%, a decrease of 25 basis points, as well as the BoE's rate outlook. This decision arises from the fact that the UK's economic growth and job figures are worse than the BoE's November forecast. The main concern is how the BoE will communicate its future rate-cut strategy to manage inflation risks effectively.

Key Data:

18:00 EU Retail Sales DEC ** 

20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision *** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

Tomorrow

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls JAN *** 

21:30 CA Unemployment Rate JAN ** 

23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel FEB *** 

EUR/USD

1.0468/1.0498 Resistance

1.0340/1.0309 Support 

On Wednesday, EUR/USD displayed some upward movement amidst a broader market recovery following the end of a six-day losing streak. The pair attempted a bullish start but encountered resistance at 1.0450, hindered by the 50-day EMA. Euro’s momentum could be diminishing ahead of the US NFP data release. 

GBP/USD

1.2556/1.2589 Resistance

1.2418/1.2385 Support 

GBP/USD rose as the dollar weakened, reaching a three-week high of 1.2550 before retreating to 1.2500. Markets anticipate the BoE’s expected 25 bps rate cut, while robust US ADP data has bolstered confidence in the US economy. Sterling’s momentum may be waning ahead of the US NFP data release. 

USD/JPY

153.20/153.46 Resistance

151.87/151.55 Support

 The BoJ has signalled gradual rate hikes, boosting the Yen's strength. The USD/JPY fell by 175 pips on Wednesday, breaking below key levels and solidifying a downtrend. The USD/JPY pair extended its decline in the Asian trade session on Thursday, reaching 151.8. On the technical side, the USD/JPY support levels are at 149.36 and 148.65, should the pair continue to move downward. A rebound above 153.00 could encounter resistance at 153.35 and 154.00.

USD/CAD

1.4401/1.4463 Resistance

1.4260/1.4199 Support 

The USD/CAD pair declined yesterday after the US tariff was delayed; however, the drop was limited to just over 70 points. Attention should focus on the low consolidation around 1.4300. As long as this level holds, there is potential for a rebound. Key resistance lies between the 10- and 20-day moving averages, situated at 1.4380 and 1.4390.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (March)

72.83/74.00 Resistance

69.77/68.87 Support 

Concerns regarding trade tariff tensions and an increase of over 8.6 million barrels in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly declined oil prices. The market is struggling to maintain $72, facing resistance from the 10-day moving average, and is nearing this year's lowest level. It is becoming increasingly important to monitor levels below $70.

Spot Gold

2886/2903 Resistance

2849/2832 Support

Spot Silver

32.52/32.64 Resistance

32.14/31.98 Support 

Spot gold prices reached new highs, surpassing $2,880, marking five consecutive days of gains. Bulls may aim to break the $2,900 mark, but there could be a wait-and-see approach ahead of tomorrow's US non-farm data release.

US30

45032/45166 Resistance

44729/44593 Support

U.S. stocks opened lower but closed higher on Wednesday, with all three major indices finishing in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in nearly two weeks, surpassing the 10-day moving average for the first time since early January. It aims for last week's high above 45,000, though caution may prevail ahead of tomorrow's non-farm report.

NAS100

21801/21944 Resistance

21462/21348 Support

Large tech stocks had mixed results overnight, with Nvidia rising over 5% and Google falling more than 7%. The Nasdaq reached a three-day high, surpassing the 10-day moving average, but caution is warranted regarding a potential downward trend line from two weeks ago that may limit further gains.

BTC (Bitcoin)

100441/102548 Resistance

93586/91515 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $96,145 after failing to maintain $100,000, despite support from Trump’s administration and crypto czar David Sacks’ announcement regarding a Bitcoin Reserve evaluation. The RSI is below 43, and a bearish MACD suggests further declines, potentially testing $91,000. Recovery above $100,000 could aim for $102,548.

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