ATFX Market Outlook 8th January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th January 2025

Dollar Gains Ground: Impacts on U.S. Stock Market and Anticipation for ADP Report

Opinion Today:

Dow futures closed lower on Tuesday as robust economic data led to higher Treasury yields, dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Crude oil futures rose toward $75 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains and approaching three-month highs amid signs of declining US crude inventories. Gold price stabilizes after the overnight pullback from the $2,665 barrier as concerns about Trump's tariff plans and geopolitical risks continue to support the safe-haven bullion. 

Today, the market is focused on several key economic indicators, including Germany's Retail Sales for November, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Eurozone, and the final readings for Industrial Sentiment and Consumer Confidence for December. Additionally, attention will be on the US ADP Employment Change for December and the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change. Later, the market will also look forward to the FOMC Minutes and Initial Jobless Claims data scheduled for tomorrow.

Key Data:

15:00 EU Germany Retail Sales NOV ** 

18:00 EU PPI NOV ** 

18:00 EU Industrial Sentiment & Consumer Confidence Final DEC ** 

21:15 US ADP Employment Change DEC *** 

23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stock Change ** 

Tomorrow

03:00 FOMC Minutes *** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EUR/USD

1.0396/1.0423 Resistance

1.0277/1.0249 Support

EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, plummeting against the US Dollar. Technically, the price was under pressure following the recent pullback from its upward trajectory. A break below the 20-day moving average could potentially lead to further downward pressure on the currency. Investors are closely monitoring the US ADP data released tonight for further insights into the economic outlook. 

GBP/USD

1.2539/1.2568 Resistance

1.2410/1.2379 Support 

GBP/USD experienced a slight increase in value early on Tuesday before experiencing a downward trend once again. Technically, the price is under pressure following the recent pullback from the upward direction. A break below the 20-moving average could potentially lead to further downward movement, with attention focused on the US ADP data release tonight. 

USD/JPY

158.58/158.90 Resistance

157.54/157.30 Support

USD/JPY remained steadfast near its multi-month high. The bullish momentum continues to persist, as indicated by the RSI indicator surpassing the 50 level. If the US ADP data surpasses market expectations, it may further propel the rally toward the resistance level. 

USD/CAD

1.4384/1.4399 Resistance

 1.4320/1.4305 Support 

USD/CAD experienced modest gains, reaching approximately 1.4360 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Technically, the price broke below the sideways trendline and retested the previous support region. If the US ADP data exceeds market expectations, it may resume its upward trajectory toward the resistance. 

U.S Crude Oil Futures (February)

75.05/75.49 Resistance

73.91/73.57 Support

Crude oil futures surged toward $75 per barrel on Wednesday, extending its gains and approaching three-month highs. The bullish momentum persists, and there is a possibility that the price may continue its upward momentum and potentially reach the next resistance level. 

Spot Gold

2665/2675 Resistance

 2633/2624 Support

Spot Silver

 30.33/30.46 Resistance

 29.73/29.59 Support

Gold prices stabilized after the overnight decline from the $2,665 barrier due to concerns surrounding Trump’s tariff plans. Technically, the price is under pressure following the recent downward movement. A break below the 20-moving average could potentially lead to further downward movement, with attention focused on the US ADP data release tonight. 

US30

42954/43360 Resistance

42150/41641 Support

Dow futures concluded lower on Tuesday due to robust economic data that resulted in higher Treasury yields. The price may continue to decline, potentially breaking below the 20-moving average, and further downward movement is anticipated, with attention focused on the US ADP data release tonight. 

NAS100

21444/21710 Resistance

21013/20798 Support

Nas100 concluded lower on Tuesday due to robust economic data that resulted in higher Treasury yields. The price may continue to decline, potentially breaking below the 20-moving average, and further downward movement is anticipated, with attention focused on the US ADP data release tonight.

BTC (Bitcoin)

100076/101449 Resistance

94357/93030 Support 

BTC is under pressure and slips below 100k marks. The bearish momentum persists and there is a chance that the price might continue to test the lower support region.

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