Gold: Is the latest bounce sustainable?

Gold opened Monday’s session with a mild upside gap at 3,363 and above its short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), following President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on European Union and Mexican goods – raising them to 30% effective August 1.

Investors did not react aggressively, interpreting the move as another negotiating tactic by the U.S. president to accelerate progress in the trade talks. Nevertheless, Friday’s channel breakout, followed by Monday’s modest upside move, was enough to lift the price above the key 3,355 barrier – a level that has repeatedly capped bullish momentum since April.

The next upside target is the 3,390 resistance zone from June, followed by a tentative descending trendline drawn from April’s peak, currently near 3,420. A decisive break above this trendline could pave the way for a retest of the previous high at 3,450, with the psychological 3,500 level coming into focus next. Further gains could even push the price toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the previous downleg at 3,570, and eventually to the round 3,600 mark.

However, with the stochastic oscillator nearing the 80 overbought threshold, a sustainable breakout above 3,420 cannot be taken for granted. On the downside, the support trendline between 3,300 and 3,325 will be closely monitored. If this floor gives way, selling pressure could intensify, dragging the price toward 3,245, and then potentially down to the 3,180–3,200 zone.

All in all, the precious metal could gain fresh bullish momentum in the coming sessions. However, whether it can strengthen its outlook above 3,420 – and more crucially, resume its record rally beyond 3,500 – remains to be seen.