NFP Day and Fed's Impact: Insights

Hey, traders! It's Friday, and it's NFP day – one of the most crucial events on the U.S. economic calendar. We all know the drill: if the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report comes in higher than expected, and we know what to expect. But the same goes if it's lower. However, let's pay attention to what Jerome Powell said yesterday, as it holds key importance.

Tonight, at 11:30, Sydney Time we'll witness the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report for October. This will also include the unemployment rate and the average hourly earnings, which are the two most critical indicators. It's not just about the NFP number; all three indicators must align.

The consensus for NFP is at 188,000, with the previous month coming in much higher than expected at 336,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8, and the average hourly earnings are expected to show a small increase, from 0.2 to 0.3.

However, remember, these are expectations, and the actual figures may differ. The crucial aspect is that all three indicators need to move in harmony and correlation. If NFP beats expectations, and the other two follow suit, it could signal that the Fed might raise interest rates again in December.

This is significant because Jerome Powell emphasised in the recent FOMC meeting that they are data-dependent. Higher-than-expected data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike on December 13. Will the Fed give us a 25 basis point gift for Christmas? We can't be sure yet, but we'll keep a close eye on the data and its impact on the markets, especially the strength of the U.S. dollar.

The week has been quite busy with events like the Bank of England's announcement and the FOMC meeting. You can find more details in my Telegram Channel, and I've also discussed these topics in my recent videos.

As we enter a new month, let's stay tuned for an exciting week ahead. Don't forget to subscribe and register for my upcoming webinar next Tuesday, where you can access my Telegram Channel and stay updated with the latest market insights.

Wishing you all a great weekend, whether it's warm or cold where you are, and I'll catch you next week!

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.