Discussão scwizard

EVERYONE IS WRONG

First of all, QE can't cause long term inflation, because a treasury that yields 3% will pay that 3% sooner or later. QE just makes it pay that 3% sooner by purchasing the treasuries.

Second of all the world will not end.

Third of all, the fundamentals of the equity rally are sound.

A bubble does NOT pop when there are thousands of bloggers saying 'it's a bubble be careful!' Are equities going to pop when Tim Knight is 85% short? Now that Tim Knight is super popular, probably not.

Think about it, how will Joe Trader lose the most money? Here's what would happen:
The dollar goes UP in the MIDDLE of QE2. Now that POMO has entered the main stream lingo, this is almost guaranteed. This will happen for sure once USD/CHF completes the dead goose formation.
Despite this STOCKS somehow STILL GO UP.
In an attempt to 'stat arb' this strange occurrence, Joe Trader DOUBLES DOWN short stocks or short dollar at the advise of his blogger friends.
This 'stat arb' will be successful the few few attempts, training the dog.
Then things dramatically move against Joe Trader and in the favor of big money.

I opened a gold short when the price returned to the daily trendline. I was planning on holding it for quite a whiles.

Then the philly fed index came out at 22.5 somehow?!?

Very strange number, unexpectedly optimistic so I closed. Turned out it was at a very good time.

Although I guess gold is still resting below the trendline. I should reopen the short at some point maybe.

Some quite successful gold trading today.

https://imagebin.org/126057

I've moved 10$ to a sub account utilizing a different strategy.

Around Christmas time going into the new year I'm going to take a very bearish stance, long EUR/AUD.

That bearish stance wasn't very long lived, I saw a reversal signal you see...

Costs a lot to be short AUD on any pair - I realised even GBP/AUD is a carry pair with these interes rates.

speki posted:
    Costs a lot to be short AUD on any pair - I realised even GBP/AUD is a carry pair with these interes rates.

Yup, it's good to be long again 😄

NFP reaction made ZERO sense.

EUR/USD FLAT
AUD/USD UP
S&P500 DOWN

I have no idea what is going on, so I'm going to follow a 2 step procedure for guaranteed profits.
1. Take the money.
2. Run.