EUR/USD

8500 handle was the last spike on the 4hr chart.

the ride up is over ,time to sell

snapdragon1970 posted:

stian posted:

rosentray posted:
EUR/USD is now trading above 1.0630 with a high of 1.0639. The first speech of Donald Trump since July impacted the US dollar as it depreciated against all competitors. First support zone is seen at 1.0630 while first resistance is seen at 1.0660.

Contained no more policy to support the USD. Likely just temporary down and will likely change back to dollar positive trend with Yellens speech the 18th. But even Fed members like Harker can put a stop to the dollar fall before. Fundamentals is still good, door open for more rate hikes?

The picture I get is Trump wants to push the Dollar lower to make the US more competitive.

Trump is a huge Protectionism fan, but he have choosen the path of tax and regulatory cuts, which is often far more expensive than a few percent too expensive dollar. It is not very likely he will be involving himself in the Feds path and policy, but rather be a supporter of a continued expansive policy through increased government debt. And boost the local market artificially with tariffs on foreign production - this could reduce imports, and boost the dollar as there will be less selling of dollars to buy foreign currency.

Bullard also talks down the Trump administration effects, 'Fed's Bullard: Any impact of new administration policies likely not felt until at least 2018'

Do you think so ??

On yesterday session, the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure to give back to the market most of its gains and managed to close in the middle of the daily range, however closed within Wednesdays range, which suggests being clearly neutral, neither side is showing control.

The currency pair continues to trade above the 10 and 50-day moving averages should act as a dynamic supports but remains trading below the 200-day moving average that also should act as dynamic resistance.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.0819, a key level at 1.0666 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.0622, the 50-day moving average at 1.0562 (support), the 10-day moving average at 1.0536 (support) and a daily support at 1.0462.

EUR/USD is trading steadily in today's session due to lack of fresh news that can stir the market. Later today we have the Advance Retail Sales and Michigan Confidence. The events have the potential to create the outlook for market behavior for next week.

The single currency marked a modest increase against the US dollar on Thursday. The price continues to move above the moving averages, while RSI remains on neutral territory. If the EUR/USD pair continue to push higher, the next target is the resistance located at 1.0815.

Bearish for the short-term.

The mixed US data released today supported the US dollar for shortly. Anyway the EUR/USD pair is on track to close its fourth consecutive week with gains. While the pair is staying above 1.0600, the bias remains bullish.

The euro rose against the dollar on Friday. By the close of US trading EUR/USD was trading at 1.0644, gaining 0.30%. I believe that the support is now located at the level of 1.0452, Wednesday's low and resistance is likely at the level of 1.0687 - the maximum of Thursday.

At the end of the trading week, the dollar remains under pressure, continuing to digest vague news conference of elected US President D. Trump. The absence of new information about the future economic policy of the new administration makes players doubt that this year the conditions for the three Fed rate increases.

idimitrov posted:
At the end of the trading week, the dollar remains under pressure, continuing to digest vague news conference of elected US President D. Trump. The absence of new information about the future economic policy of the new administration makes players doubt that this year the conditions for the three Fed rate increases.

Yeah, so far Trump brings a lot of volatility and pressure for the dollar.

deresel posted:

Yeah, so far Trump brings a lot of volatility and pressure for the dollar.

It's possible, that Trump's administration will aim to weaker dollar, in favour to US exporters.

Key levels to watch for:
Support: 1.0550; 1.0370;
Resistance: 1.0815; 1.0980.

idimitrov posted:

deresel posted:

Yeah, so far Trump brings a lot of volatility and pressure for the dollar.

It's possible, that Trump's administration will aim to weaker dollar, in favour to US exporters.

That seems to be the case from what I read too.

snapdragon1970 posted:

idimitrov posted:

deresel posted:

Yeah, so far Trump brings a lot of volatility and pressure for the dollar.

It's possible, that Trump's administration will aim to weaker dollar, in favour to US exporters.

That seems to be the case from what I read too.

He'll first have to fix the trade balance. A weaker dollar would be net negative for both importers and industry in general. The US import raw materials like steel, aluminium and most rare earth materials. His trade war with China might lead to a a material deficit in rare earth materials as well.

In any event, such a policy will come in 2018 or 2019.

And if he ever makes the Fed agree to a crazy weaker dollar policy, OPEC will be pissed as well, risk a return to the 1970s? Don't think so. But with Trump, nothing can be entirely ruled out.

On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD rose with a narrow range and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed the currency pair managed to close within Thursday’s range, which suggests being clearly neutral neither side is showing control.

The currency pair is trading above the 10 and 50-day moving averages should act as a dynamic supports but remains trading below the 200-day moving average that also should act as dynamic resistance.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.0819, a key level at 1.0666 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.0622, the 50-day moving average at 1.0560 (support), the 10-day moving average at 1.0554 (support) and a daily support at 1.0462

stian posted:

snapdragon1970 posted:

idimitrov posted:

deresel posted:

Yeah, so far Trump brings a lot of volatility and pressure for the dollar.

It's possible, that Trump's administration will aim to weaker dollar, in favour to US exporters.

That seems to be the case from what I read too.

He'll first have to fix the trade balance. A weaker dollar would be net negative for both importers and industry in general. The US import raw materials like steel, aluminium and most rare earth materials. His trade war with China might lead to a a material deficit in rare earth materials as well.

In any event, such a policy will come in 2018 or 2019.

And if he ever makes the Fed agree to a crazy weaker dollar policy, OPEC will be pissed as well, risk a return to the 1970s? Don't think so. But with Trump, nothing can be entirely ruled out.

I fully agree with your assessment.

EUR/USD is trading to the downside in today's early European hours as market participants are expecting the speech of Theresa May that may influence the Sterling. Traders are heading to the stronger US dollar in an attempt to preserve their capital in case of unwanted volatility in the UK currency. CMP 1.0584 EUR/USD.