ATFX ​Market Outlook 16th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 16th October 2025

Gold Breaks Above $4,200, Oil Stays Weak as IEA Warns of Oversupply

Market Highlight

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed little change in recent U.S. economic activity, but signs of cooling consumption emerged. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America gained on strong quarterly earnings, while investors remained focused on escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The Dow fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.66%. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its decline for a second session, slipping below the 99 level. USD/JPY fell 0.39%, while EUR/USD rose 0.35%.

Gold extended its record-breaking rally, surpassing $4,200 per ounce for the first time, as stronger bets on Fed rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainty drove investors into safe-haven assets. Crude oil hovered near a five-month low, pressured by renewed trade tensions and the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of a potential global supply surplus in 2026.

Key Outlook

The UK will release its August GDP report, with the annual growth rate expected at 1.3% (previous 1.4%) and monthly growth seen at 0.1% (previous 0.0%). July GDP was flat, and any rebound—even a modest one—could weaken expectations of a Bank of England rate cut by year-end. Meanwhile, investors will watch ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech tomorrow morning for insights on the Eurozone’s recent data trends.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB GDP MoM AUG **  

14:00 GB Industrial Production MoM AUG ** 

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM SEP ** 

20:30 US PPI MoM SEP ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

Tomorrow: 

00:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech *** 

00:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

01:30 BoC Governor Macklem Speech **

17:00 EU CPI MoM Final SEP ** 

21:15 US Manufacturing Production MoM SEP ** 

21:15 US Building Permits MoM SEP **

21:15 US Housing Starts SEP ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1690/1.1703

· Support: 1.1620/1.1607

EUR/USD gained 0.35% to 1.1646, supported by France’s pension reform suspension. The pair is testing a key trendline break; holding above 1.1620 could extend recovery toward 1.1690–1.1703 resistance, while failure to sustain may trigger a retest of 1.1620–1.1607 support. Short-term bias leans bullish, but volatility remains.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3494/1.3536

· Support: 1.3359/1.3317

GBP/USD rebounded toward 1.3430 after holding firm above 1.3359 support. Technically, the pair has broken above a descending trendline, hinting at a possible shift in momentum. A retest of the 1.3359–1.3317 zone could confirm a base, while upside targets lie near 1.3494. Traders remain cautious ahead of UK GDP and trade data releases.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 151.10/151.32

· Support: 150.35/150.17

USD/JPY slid to 151.20, weighed by Powell’s dovish tone and stronger yen safe-haven flows. Technically, the pair remains capped by a descending trendline, with intraday resistance at 151.10. A failure to reclaim this level risks a deeper downside toward 150.35, while only a sustained break above the trendline would ease bearish pressure.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 59.83/60.13

· Support: 57.63/57.33

WTI crude closed at $58.27, pressured by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and the IEA’s forecast of a 2026 supply glut. Technically, prices remain capped below the descending trendline near $59.83. A rejection here reinforces bearish momentum, with risk skewed toward $57.63, while only a breakout above $60 would shift sentiment.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4246/4256

· Support: 4180/4167

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 53.54/53.89

-Support: 52.73/52.36

Spot gold extended gains to $4,228/oz, a fresh record, fueled by Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tensions. The breakout above $4,200 reinforces bullish momentum. Technically, immediate support sits at $4,180, while upside resistance is seen near $4,246; sustained strength could open the way toward $4,300.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46418/46568

· Support: 45973/45785

The Dow Futures eased 0.04% to 46,253 as trade tensions capped optimism from solid bank earnings. Technically, the index faces resistance near 46,418, with downside risks pointing toward 45,973 if momentum weakens.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24812/24960

· Support: 24336/24186

NAS100 gained 0.66% supported by ASML’s upbeat earnings and AI-driven sentiment. Technically, resistance near 24,812 may limit gains, with potential pullbacks toward 24,336 if momentum fades.

BTC        

· Resistance: 112367/113244

· Support: 108652/107790

Bitcoin steadied near $112,000, rebounding from Tuesday’s dip to $109,000, though still far below the $126,000 peak. The 4-hour chart shows support at $108,652–107,790 holding; if intact, a rebound toward $112,367–113,244 is likely. A break below $108,652 would risk a deeper pullback. Fed rate-cut bets and ETF inflows ($102.6m) underpin sentiment, offsetting trade tension pressure.

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