"Just Oil"

Supply destruction takes time. People are being laid off. Yes, Iran is coming, so I believe this will add pressure on Canadian and American projects existing and potentially coming. Iranian oil is cheaper to extract. Saudis, Russia and Iran can take it as their oil is far cheaper costs wise. Fracking is being run on debt.

Indexes are going nuts. I am short both Russell2000 and S&P500. Not the first time. should have stayed with my original position which was above 2000s. hope it will develop into some substantial move.

Chikot posted:
If I am not wrong oil already tested 29.70. I am not interested until there will be good pull back. but watching. I am waiting.

i predict that it is going down to 20$ ,you know that is because of the saudies ,they flooded the market to kill us oil

I hope it will spike before droping to give some chance.
I think there has been overall large surplus in oil production including USA, but it was done in anticipation of economic growth which has not come. The crude is down so much not because of Saudis, but 1. Economy worldwide isi poor shape and getting worse = demand is not there
2. Too much oil on the markets now.
So, supply destruction via price down trend. Weak hands will leave the game.

25 coming i guess...

Ohhh, I am afraid from the looks of that slop it might overshoot.
Generally trends are in retracement mode.

Waiting time now. Brent by the way has already retraced $4 against major trend. Gas has been giving me fits. i closed the whole freaking trade by mistake. this is what getting up at night can do. what a pain. now gonna wait.

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Chikot posted:
Waiting time now. Brent by the way has already retraced $4 against major trend. Gas has been giving me fits. i closed the whole freaking trade by mistake. this is what getting up at night can do. what a pain. now gonna wait.

Ouch, that's happened to me too a few times. Which is why I have a firm rule not to trade during the night.

Seems that people are following Kuwait's OPEC Governor Nawal al-Fezaia hint that the oil-rich nation is ready to cut production (ready to cooperate if the rest of the oil producing countries will too). Doubt this will have any real effect on the oil markets. As we've heard a lot of talk before (from counties like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria), and little action. And people are jumping in on a short term rally.

A possible production cut has made oil rally, the WTI may try to break above the 35.00 level.

alexforex007 posted:
A possible production cut has made oil rally, the WTI may try to break above the 35.00 level.

But OPEC denied it. It still didn't fall back to the levels before the news. There is lot of news, but little action. It might continue to rally a bit, but I wouldn't be too optimistic in the long run.

stian posted:
Seems that people are following Kuwait's OPEC Governor Nawal al-Fezaia hint that the oil-rich nation is ready to cut production (ready to cooperate if the rest of the oil producing countries will too). Doubt this will have any real effect on the oil markets. As we've heard a lot of talk before (from counties like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria), and little action. And people are jumping in on a short term rally.

I am following chart 😄

Tried shorting gas and entry was perfect, However it is not the moment. I am quick to get out though. Was developing ideas about grains which did not work either. Huge disappointment sugar. I has been waiting for just this for 2 months. and missed the best entry. entered twice but due to worse places could not stay in this trade. so, decided to go flat 100% and wait. If I am right sugar is up to next big down leg. It is in huge long term down trend.
The interesting point is that for all commodities involved namely gas, cor and wheat reversal pattern to upside was similar. Nice entry for contra trend traders actually, very small risk. I was watching those levels and got out just in time. It is all about waves.
Freaking ping pong. Copper and platinum did not work either.
eur/usd while still in range consolidation whatever it might be up to something. will be watching.

As far as chart, I see Brend can go $39-42 and may be more. Which does not mean the down trend is over...
Basically I am waiting.

Trying to go up

Crude is not where I would like it to be to go short . Happily I have no attachment to crude at this moment. It is sugar and gas. But seems I am over the gas now. I have tried to short it from various levels but seriously, it is at $2. How far down it can go and considering PA stop should be pretty wide. Is there any reasonable r:r. i do not think it will go to $0. $1.5?
Sugar is different thing., I am sticking to this short despite entering a bit lower form daily signal, I am ok on weekly signal.
closed gas short again. i am down 2% on gas attempts alone. over have no idea how many trades.
The thing is, I am afraid of what market can do and trading futures for 3 years both demo and live really made me quick in running for exits. It is the only way to survive and fight another day.
Basically, I will stick to weekly chart ignoring daily. t is mostly very very choppy.
I have few trades from weekly coming. hope they will work.

So, we are in. i am worried a bit about wheat cause tomorrow are The News. The only news that matter for grain markets. 12:00-12:15 EST.

Another drop for WTI oil to the 28.00 level, a break of that zone could take oil a lot lower.