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Trading EURUSD Only

Apr 13 2013 at 10:52
posts 1439
- Stick to the thread name
- If you mess, will be ignored
- First trade, then post
- Either POST what you TRADE, or TRADE what you POST

Good Luck

Thread Language : English

___Traders Should Stay Away from Manuplating Other Traders with Posting Directions Without Technical Reasons___

Time to time I trade risky & I trade small size regarding to my account. I use small portion of it & roll ~10 times a day for achieving a reasonable % profit.
This way may not match you. So copying my trades may destroy your account.
Read the posts take the parts it works for you, PLS trade your own charts.

Do I Manage Accounts:
Yes. My Account only.

About Me:
Age : 43
Country : Turkey
Experiance : > 5 Years
Instrument Traded : EURUSD only
Account Leverage : 1:500
Normal Trade Size Free Margin : %3000
Average Trade/Day : ~10
Average Return/Day : ~%1.50
Trading Style : Trading Waves & Trend Following & Scalping
Time Zone : GMT+3

Countries Visited:
Austria, Belguim, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Holland, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Switzerland, UK, USA

What Draws My Charts:
I use self coded EA to Draw ( Print ) my charts. EA is quite complicated & difficoult to use. Actually has > 5000 code lines & > 200 parameters to set. I even sometimes can not remember which is which & looking into code to understand. Unfortunatelly sharing this tool actually is not possible.
It is neither commercial nor for share.


___ I Advise All Traders Learn EW ___

5M : 3 Bars Fractal
15M : 3 Bars Fractal
1H : 3 Bars Fractal
4H : 3 Bars Fractal
D1 : 3 Bars Fractal
R4 : Renko 4 3 Bars Fractal
R16 : Renko 16 3 Bars Fractal
R64 : Renko 64 3 Bars Fractal
Fractal : B. Williams

I use small % of my balance & roll ~10 times a day for achieving a reasonable % profit.
If price goes ~30* pip against my entry, I call that as a wrong entry either direction or entry level base. Those needs Manage.
I average price until ~30* pip reverse move from levels defined. In general I trade Max 3 Trades at the same time. When price moves back to 1st or 2nd entry level I exit with BE & keep last entry running.
Min Free Margin target with trading Max entry ( 3 ) : % 500
- Do use SL for emergency issues, not for exit.
- Have %5DD Auto exit code that closes all FL trades in case.
- SL => BE used only when I leave screen
- Trade size:
...a- Normal Size (NS) : Have min %3000 free margin with 1:500 Account Leverage
...b- 1/2 NS
- Trding with NS;
...a- Exit %50 @ ~10-20* pip profit depending on the MKT condition
...b- %50 runner to target level defined with MKT dynamics
- Trading with 1/2 NS; Exit %100 when Target achived.
* All distances Depending on the MKT condition. NOT FIX.

Trend Lines, Channels, Diagonals, Fibo Levels, Pivots

Why Trading TL,DG,CH,FB,PV:
When Trading there are 4 data never change
1 - Fractals ( Fractals Guides MKT. NOT THE INDICATORS )
2 - Trend Lines
3 - Fibo levels
4 - Pivots

How You Start, It Goes That Way:
A real story;
When I was newbie, I was talking to a experiend trader. She have said, it took 3 years for her to FIX early exit problem from winners.
While listening I was loughing from inside and saying 'what the hell you are talking about'. After 4 years from that date, I have still promlem to FIX. Fixed alot but not enough.

News Triggers. Does NOT Give Direction:
When Trading news, most asked Question is the direction.
Here is the answer;
How do you know it is good for currency. Are you Bernanke or Draghi?
There are thousands of different parameters that Central Banks looking for.
When a data good for currency today, tomorrow is NOT.
Only one Exapmle: Depending on the Export/Import Balance/Regulations/Plans/Forecasts,
when weaknes of currency is good for country today, tomorrow it will NOT.
When any data source saying 'Its Good For Currency', this forecast most probably is according to the standart economic rules.
If still there is left some.

Correct Trading Tools:
I am writing this with 5 years of experience & thousands of Back & Forward Tests results.
There is no system that generate profit in Trading on its own. Believe it or not.
For any system, what is good for Shorting it now is good for Long after Minutes/Hours/Days...........
Had coded thousands of different EA s to test & find the most reasonable system. Yes thousands. Different trading systems , MM ...........
My conclusion is;
- Indicators are not Trustable. What is printed with any indicator on chart is printed due it happend that way. Next time it will not.
- There is only one thing MKT using in common is the Fractals.
- Any system that is not including Fractals WILL not work for long period.
- With using fractals;
...a- Support / Resistance
...b- Trend Lines
...c- Channels
...d- Fıbo
...e- EW
can be created.
Additionally another common tool is Pivots.
MKT trades those all or some of them at the same with different TF s.
Price does not want to move out of S/R leves. Just like us. When we driving a car we would like drive it on the roads. For price S/R is the side roads & Channels are the highways.
Beak Out and moving in a S/R less area is not normal price action as it happens max %30 with a manuplation. So for trading we should use side roads & highways to find our way.
When trading with those we need the turn points. This can be done with EW. EW is the curves of highways same as on regular highways we drive.
So when/if a trader bring all those data togather on multi TF then will start see roads highways exits curves.
Then making desecions will be more easy.
- S/R => Sideways
- TL & Channles => Highways
- Fibo => Levels
- Pivots => Fundumental Anaylses
- EW => Reversals

Why NOT Indicators:
Idicators are eyecathers
When looking a chart with MACD you can easly say SELL here BUY here
But when start trading it does not work
Do you know why?
MACD printed that way becouse it happened that way, next time will not
Always, Remember, trading any instrument is trading Paradox
In reality there is no solution for that
We just try to make Total Win >= Total (Loss+Cost)
Why paradox?
Past of the price creates TL s & TL s shape the future of the price.
This is called Paradox!

Becoming a Trader:
- New Trader always start with wins ( begginer luck / no odds / no afraid )
- Then suddenly looses starts. No wins at all. At that stage trader starts creating his/her own odds. Dont do that, Dont do this
- Then with all those odds trading becoms impossible. Not single Trade a day
- Then trader start judeging of which is correct/wrong
- Keeps loosing money while learning trading ( Learning by doing. Most expensive way of Learning )
- After enough time ( differs from person to person ) becomes a trader
- No odds, Flexible, Logic, Anayltic, Deciplined, Consistant, Patient

Break Even (BE):
When trader enter a trade from a MKT level ( not random ) there is a big possibility of testing same level again. No dubt it is MKT dynamic. I can explain later why.
When you are in a POSS winner & set SL => BE, when it test same level again due to cost ( spread and/or comission ) trade will stop out BE
When you are in a POSS looser, it will most probably will not move trade direction where you set SL => BE
Winner missed with BE
Looser Stop OUT
Total Loss
I set SL => BE only when I leave screen

How can we HEDGE our trades:
When trading EURUSD first, we should find an instrument that is MAX UNRlated with EURUSD. At least it must not be a currency pair. eg...... Soybeans, Scotcks or what ever it is.
The logic is depending on trader capacity of trading.
We can trade 2 different unrlated instrument. At that point due to tading instruments are unrlated they will not effect from each other atleast on min level. If I am over average trader then it is not very possible to have both trade desecions wrong. But on the other hand when one fails other can succeed and they hedge each other.
If they both wins then it is big goal. So basicly hedging between currencies like USDCHF vs EURUSD means nothing. Just doubles our Costs.

Trading Important News/Events:
There may traders willing to trade news and/or important events.
Beware of FAKE moves.
It moves one direction, you enter & suddenly reverse.
Make a desecion & try to stay in one trade with planned RR Ratio.
With that;
You Win once
You Loss once
If you reverse your trade with every move you Loose Many Times!!

Why Not Pending Limit Orders:
When trading with pending orders you should spray n number of trades with small gaps to guarantee your entry & not damn for 1 pip miss.
The issue is;
When MKT is your direction you probably will miss some of them so your entry will be eg... with %50 planned risk.
No problem. Profit is Profit.
On the other hand when MKT is against you it will trigger your all pending orders & then most probably will stop out all.
So in that situaiton your loss will be %100 risk planned.
Win %50
Loss %100
Better to wait & trade with MKT order manually.

Gravity Effect:
On Earth, human made anything leaks one direction. There is no pure equlibrum for human made.
When MKT slow, price always leaks down. NOT Up.

New Traders:
The student that never learn, whom has sit at the back of the classroom and never join the room.
So you better make some posts & get answers or post your ideas/charts.

Same Bar Fractal:
When have 2 fractals Upper & Lower with in same bar, this is one of the worst scenario.
This situations are the conditions where I stop trading when coding. ( When Testing strategies )
A huge indesecion zone depending on the TF. It may break Either way strong.

Common Mistakes Done by Traders:
If trader lost on last trade eg... 30 pips
Next trade target most probably is 30 pips, to cover loss. But MKT has no clue about trader loss & it trades technicals.
So better determine levels with technicals instead of Equity Curve.
When trader catch a signal, sometimes, he/she waits for his/her desecion confirmation, does not enter trade & wait
Most probably that signal works. Then he/she gets mad to him/her self and while waiting another signal, trades in rush under pressure of missed winner & makes mistakes on entry/exit of rush trade.
If trader can not Book Loss when needed or exit a Poss winner due high risk, this means he/she does not believe him/her self as he/she thinks, can not recover that Loss or can not find another Opportunity to enter.
Traders makes big mistakes when they make profit & make loss
When they make
- profit they want to keep it
- loss they want to put it back
& those changes their desecions dramaticly.

Mathematical Approach to Health:
Health is '1'
The others like Properties, Houses, Cars, Money, .......... are '0' s of the right side of '1'
if you take '1' out of there, thousands of '0' s will mean '0'

Seasonal Charts: credit goes to TraderPablo

CME Group FX Futures Report:


Investopedia: credit goes to MeInGraySuit

Market 24h Clock:

Weekend Price:

Monthly Wave Analysis: credit goes to Shiko

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): credit goes to Stimulus

Dukascopy FX Tools:

Oanda OrderBook:

How to read OrderBook:

Understanding MFE & MAE:

Live Broker Slippage Data:

US Debt.Live:

Baltic Dry Index: credit goes to shellsnail

MQL4 Code Base:

World Clock-Time Zones: credit goes to linusjob

Week of Year:

Fun. he he: credit goes to thodie

'Tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney' credit goes to mok1one

Tips & Hints:
- Trading for Living or Living for Trading. Make a choice at the beggining.
- Two words does NOT work at FX, NEVER, FOREVER
- There is no 'I wish' in this bussines
- FX Requires Hard Work & Screen Time. Edison said; '%99 of my success is Hard Work, %1 Luck'
- FX is Biggest Retail Bussines on Earth
- Martingale Trading == No Comment
- Grid Trading == Suicide
- Always, trade your own charts
- When in Doubt, Better NOT Trade
- Every 1st is most difficoult. Every 1st week of month there are important news & events. Be More Carefull when trading
- You can NOT control how much you Win, but you can control how much you Loose
- When/If your Instinct/Feeling keep you away from trading. OK
- When/If your Instinct/Feeling make you trade against technicals. NOT OK. You will LOOSE
- There is no Silver Bullet. Learn how to trade. Indicators only make you feel better when loosing a trade
- One Instrument enough to make profit. More not needed. Just Sencronyze with it
- Planned Hedge can be done with only Most Uncorolated Insruments
- If you miss a trade, just sit & wait. There are 72,000 bars at 5M , 24,000 bars at 15M , 6,000 bars at 1H chart every year
- Always, trade with SL , or with an exit strategy that will not destroy your account. Remember, what is good for Long is Good for Short after Min/Hour/Day/Week....
- Define your TP & SL accordingly with actual MKT. Fix TP & SL is only good at WonderLand
- Hedging a looser is NOT a solution , just a delay
- News triggers. Does NOT give Direction
- Listen News, Trade Technicals. With the dynamics of MKT, somehow they match
- Equity Curve; With what speed it goes up, same speed it goes down. Vice verse is NOT VALID
- Equity Curve; Any Curve heads up to +infinity, Comes back from -infinity
- Be patient. When get bored, be ready for action!
- Price Averaging with SL or with exit strategy <> Grid Trading
- Trading is a serious game, components are Loss , Win , Miss & if you dont have a plan Mess
- Exit more important then Entry, while you are still Virtual on entry, you are Real on exit. You will either book loss or profit
- Trading with different Lot sizes is extremly dangerous. Do Not attemp before getting experienced Trader
- Always, Think Neutral. When analyzing Market do NOT get manuplated with your floating trades
- Before Entry: Think worst After Entry: Expect Best
- Always remember, God forgives, Market does NOT!
- Making Pips important. But making it Wright Way is Much More important
- Do NOT Skin same Range Twice
- When you do NOT have enough experience, you have enough money. When you have enough experience you may NOT have enough money! First experience with DEMO!
- Always Remember, Patience Pay$$ Off
- If you do NOT trade, do NOT watch. It makes you tired

Acronyms: ( Alphabetical Order )
A : Answer
ASAP : As Soon As Possible
ATL : Ascending Trend Line
ATM : At The Moment
BE : Break Even
BIS : Bank for International Settlements
BO : Break Out
BOE : Bank of England
BOJ : Bank of Japan
BT : Back Test
BTDTR : Better Trades Down The Road
CH : Channel
CO : Current Outlook
CT : Chart
CZ : Consolidation Zone
D1 : Daily CHart
DD : Drawdown
DER : Derivative
DG : Diagonal
DL : Dead Line ( Most Poss Exit Level with LOSS )
DM : Down Move
DOM : Depth Of Market
DTL : Desecending Trend Line
DUR : Duration
ECB : European Central Bank
EQUL : Equlibrum Level
EW : Elliott Wave
EZ : Expanding Zone
FA : Fundumental Analyses
FB : Fibo
FED : Federal Reserve Bank
FL : Floating
FOT : Finger On Trigger ( Finger on Close button )
FT : Forward Test
FYI : For Your Information
FIFO : First In First Out
HFT : High Frequency Trading
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
HR : Horizantal
HS : Head & Shoulder Pattern
I/D : IntraDay
IB : Introducing Broker
IMO : In My Opinion
IMHO : In My Honest Opinion
LC : Lower Channel
LG : Long Trade
LH : Lower High
LL : Lower Low
LTRO : Long-Term Refinancing Operations
MA : Moving Average
MAE : The Maximum Adverse Excursion is a term used to measure how much a trade moves against you, from your Entry.
MC : Margin Call
MESS : Mess
MFE : The Maximum Favorable Excursion is a term used to measure how much a trade moves in your favor, from your Entry.
MKT : Market
MM : Money Managment
MTFA : Multi Time Frame Analyses
NL : Neck Line
NMC : Normal Market Conditions
NP : No Problem
NS : Normal Size ( Trade Lot )
NZ : Narrowing Zone
OC : Open/Close
OCO : Order Close Order
OCTEA : One Click Trading EA
OMT : Outright Monetary Transactions
OPP : Opportunity
PA : Price Action
PB : Pull Back
PO : Pending Order
POSS : Possible
PV : Pivot
Q : Question
Rn : Renko Bar Chart with n pip Range
RBA : Reserve Bank of Australia
RO : Rollover
RR : Risk Reward Ratio
REZ : Resistance
SE : Stock Exchange
SH : Short Trade
SL : Stop Loss
SOH : Sitting On Hands
SS : Same Size ( Trade Lot )
STP : Standart Temperature Pressure ( Normal Market Conditions )
SUP : Support
S/D : Supply/Demand
S/R : Support/Resistance
S/T : Short Term
TP : Take Profit
TA : Technical Analysis
TG : Target
TF : Time Frame
TL : Trend Line
TS : Trailing Stop
TY : Thank You
TYPO : Typographical Error
UC : Upper Channel
UP : Up Move
UNCH : Unchanged
VR : Vertical
W1 : Weekly Chart
W : Wave
WE : Weekend
WL : Wave Long ( Wave Up )
WS : Wave Short ( Wave Down )
YW : You’re Welcome

MT4 Tips:
#1 The way of Printing History Trades on Charts ( Making Them Visiable ):
Drag a trade from 'Account History' & drop it on related instrument chart any TF. It will print trade on chart.
If you hold 'Shift' down while doing this process it will print all history trades on chart.

#2 Kloning Platform:
If you copy your MT4 folder as it is, you can klone it. Then can Login same account ( Live/Demo ) with 2 or more platforms. MT4 is not installing any file out of its own folder.
Apr 13 2013 at 11:51
posts 1439
I will be posting here my EURUSD analyses. feel free to post yours with the rules posted @ 1st post.

Trade Well!
good luck
Apr 14 2013 at 21:33
posts 1439
ok guys
no gap a smooth open
Apr 14 2013 at 21:33
posts 1439
Apr 14 2013 at 21:33
posts 1439
3:30am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
9:15am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
3:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
4:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
Apr 30 2013 at 13:54
posts 1
Hey Steve,

How's it going. Its unfortunate what happened on Forex Factory. I always liked your analysis on the pair. I will be posting my analysis if that's ok?

Pip Singh
Money is made Volume Analysis by anticipating what is coming- not by waiting till it happens and following the herd
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