A follow through selling pressure below mid-112.00s has the potential to drag the pair towards 111.65-60 important support, with some intermediate support near the 112.00 handle.
On the upside, any recovery attempts might now confront immediate resistance at 100-day SMA near 113.00 round figure mark, which if cleared decisively is likely to trigger a short-covering rally towards 113.35-40 resistance, en-route 50-day SMA hurdle near 113.65 region.
Momentum above 112.90 (yesterday high) could get extended towards 100-day SMA resistance near 113.10 region, above which the pair is likely to accelerate the up-move towards 50-day SMA hurdle near 113.60 region. On the downside, retracement back below mid-112.00s might now drag the pair towards 112.00 round figure mark before the pair eventually drops to yearly lows support near 111.65-60 regio
For the sixth consecutive day the Japanese yen performs better than the US dollar. During the last session the dollar lost another 72 pips. Early the dollar was traded for 112.49 yen. The first hours the dollar was stronger and it recorded a peak level of 112.86, but later followed fairly sharp decline in the rate and bears broke first support at 112.00 to record bottom level of 111.53. The session closed at 111.77.
Dollar/yen had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 111.53 and hit 111.42 earlier this morning. The outlook remains bearish, but note that the zone 111.50/30 is key support and a good place for a long position with tight stop loss. Purchases around this area will give a better price and risk/return. Immediate resistance is 112.30/50, whose breakthrough could lead price to neutral zone for testing 113.00 or higher. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 111.30 would reactivate the bearish pattern as part of the scenario of the double top (118.60).
USD / JPY mounts to falls in the Nikkei despite the rise in Japanese exports. Nikkei is tied to declines in international stock markets, boosting demand for Japanese yen. • Japanese exports increase from 1.3% to 11.3%. • USD / JPY broke the relevant support at 111.50.
During the day yesterday the American stock markets presented a remarkable fall that was generated, mainly, by falls in the financial sector and in the energy sector. These falls were replicated by the various exchanges at the international level, where the Asian stock market was no exception. The Nikkei had setbacks between yesterday and today of more than 500 pips, which led the index to break the 19,000. The falls failed to be slowed by the strong rise in Japanese exports that show a significant recovery within the Japanese economy and augur good growth figures for this first quarter of 2017.
The yen continues to surprise the dollar. For the seventh consecutive day the Japanese yen performs better than the greenback. During the last session the dollar lost another 52 pips from its account. Early in the morning one dollar traded for 111.78 yen, and within minutes there was registered daily high at 111.79 yen per dollar. There was a long and convincing decline and after breaking the first support level at 111.20, bears took its bottom at exchange rate of 110.73. Bulls found the strength to return the rate to the level of 111.26.
USDJPY is losing 0.12% at 111.03 and a drop below 110.63 (low Mar.23) would aim for 109.91 (50% Fibo of the November-December rally) and finally 108.18 (200-day sma). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 111.77 (high Mar.22) ahead of 112.88 (high Mar.21) and then 113.38 (20-day sma).
USD/JPY marks a week of depreciation as the pair went from 113 to below 111. Lowest low was made yesterday at 110.60, price is now slightly recovered trading at 111.23. I'm expecting a move up for the next week.
Instead of trading sideways as expected, USD dipped to a low of 110.60 before recovering. While downward momentum is not strong, the undertone is still negative and USD is expected to grind lower towards 110.50. Resistance is at 111.30 but only a move back above 111.65 would indicate the start of a more sustained recovery. We still view the current decline as severely over-extended but with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards 110.00 cannot be ruled out (even though the odds for such a move are not high). All in, the current downward pressure would ease only if USD can move and stay above 112.00.
At the moment USD/JPY is losing 0.88% at 110.35 and facing the first resistance at 110.60 (daily high) followed by 111.00 and 111.50 (Mar. 24 high). On the downside, a break below 110.10/00 could target 109.35 (Nov. 15 high) and 108.75 (Nov. 17 low).
Momentum above session peak resistance near 110.80 level could get extended towards the 111.00 handle, above which a fresh bout of short-covering has the potential to lift the pair 111.30-35 resistance area ahead of 111.60-65 strong hurdle. On the downside, renewed weakness below mid-110.00s would turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards multi-month lows support near 110.10 support before eventually dropping to 109.70 support.
ADVERTENCIA DE ALTO RIESGO: El comercio de divisas implica un alto nivel de riesgo que puede no ser adecuado para todos los inversores.
El efecto de apalancamiento crea un riesgo adicional y una exposición a las pérdidas. Antes de decidirse a operar con divisas, considere cuidadosamente sus objetivos de inversión, su nivel de experiencia y su tolerancia al riesgo.
Podría perder una parte o la totalidad de su inversión inicial. No invierta dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Infórmese sobre los riesgos asociados al trading de divisas y pida consejo a un asesor financiero o fiscal independiente si tiene alguna duda.
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