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Siitari
Nov 22 2010 at 11:57
posts 111
I'm a bit confused about this. I didn't know what this means and had to look it up.

Is '0.26 (99.98%)' as it's supposed to be? The percents seem to indicate that the 0.26 should actually be calculated as 1/n = 3.85?
Or have I misunderstood this completely? Has this been 'turned around' so that the smaller the number the better the expectancy?


I found this chart:

Z-Score & Confidence Limit (%)

3.00 / 99.73%
2.58 / 99.00%
2.33 / 98.00%
2.17 / 97.00%
2.05 / 96.00%
2.00 / 95.45%
1.96 / 95.00%
1.64 / 90.00%


EDIT: Seems that everyone has got a 99.98%?

Less effort, better results.
Kyle K (Holoverse)
Nov 22 2010 at 18:41
posts 7
Yeah, Im confused too. Mine is at -19 (99.98%)
That seems either really good. Or really bad....lol
Any ideas?

Quitters Never Win, Winners Never Quit
Elkart
Elkart
Nov 22 2010 at 18:48
posts 941
Kyle K (Holoverse)
Nov 22 2010 at 18:54
posts 7
Bbut what does it mean to me?

Is the 99.98% a confidence figure?
Or a probability of bankruptcy figure?

Which is why I say, either its really good
Or really bad :)

Quitters Never Win, Winners Never Quit
Elkart
Elkart
Nov 22 2010 at 19:03
posts 941
I don't know. I was reading it but got distracted by a beer. Now I can't concentrate....



Kyle K (Holoverse)
Nov 22 2010 at 19:08
posts 7
lol

Quitters Never Win, Winners Never Quit
Ethan (Staff)
Nov 25 2010 at 11:33
posts 1394
Guys, I've just noticed this topic.

Here's an explanation we've posted in our blog:

The sign doesn’t make the z-score value any better or worse – what we’re looking to see is a z-score value greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 (Equal to 95% probability or better).

While z-score tells us if the streak of losses/wins are random or not, the sign simply tells us if the dependence is positive or negative, meaning:

Z-Score negative – dependence is positive.
Z-Score positive – dependence is negative.

Positive dependence – a profit will be followed by a profit and a loss by a loss.
Negative dependence – a loss will be followed by a profit and a profit by a loss.

And how certain can we be that it will happen? This is the percentage that is shown to you in your system’s z-score value. So for example, if z-score = 2.17(97.0%), it means there is a 97% confidence level that a loss will be followed by a profit and a profit by a loss (negative dependence). In such case you would want to miss a trade after a profit and take a trade after a loss to maximize profits and minimize losses.

Hope that’s clear enough! We’ll add a section describing it in full, in the next several days.

Siitari
Nov 25 2010 at 11:41
posts 111
Thanks for the explanation! I read the comments on your blog and the links too.

What is still confusing me is that the probability percent always seems to be 99.98%. On every system. There's a bug in the code? Or does it update at certain times only and gets calculated correctly later?

Less effort, better results.
Ethan (Staff)
Nov 25 2010 at 11:51
posts 1394
Looks like an issue on our side - currently checking it, please stand by.

Ethan (Staff)
Nov 25 2010 at 12:08
posts 1394
Ok, we've found an issue in our calculations - the fix is ready, however it will be applied only during the weekend as it involves a short period of downtime.

I apologize for any inconvenience.

Thanks for reporting it!

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