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EUR/USD
Jun 16, 2016 at 05:08
Membre depuis May 01, 2015
posts 675
On Wednesday the single currency was trading elevated against the US dollar, following the highly awaited FOMC decision. The pair opened at 1.1206 and closed 52 pips higher. If the uptrend continues, the pair will move to the first resistance located at 1.1286.
Membre depuis Feb 19, 2014
posts 61
Membre depuis Jul 10, 2014
posts 1117
Jun 16, 2016 at 16:05
Membre depuis Jul 10, 2014
posts 1117
csc2009 posted:victoriajensen posted:
EUR/USD has risen with only about 40 pips all day because everyone are waiting for the FOMC statement which is coming out in less than two hours.
The pair has been rejected from 1.13 level despite Fed decision to stay on hold at its June meeting and back to it's usual range.
Indeed, now it's back to testing the support at 1.1130. If it breaks below that level it will likely reach 1.1050.
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
Jun 17, 2016 at 06:25
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
csc2009 posted:
The pair made sharp U-turn yesterday, the price back to near its opening price with unclear reason. Immediate resistance is still at 1.1300 level, ranging between 1.13 to 1.1130.
In my previous postings I have explained how consolidations, congestions and trading ranges work.
consolidation = 5 to 10 bars
congestion = 11 to 20 bars
trading range = 21 to 29 bars
all of the above have a so called 'measuring bar' (MB)
a MB is a bar, where all following bars have either the open price or the close price or both within the high and low of the MB.
when counting bars, the MB needs to be included.
Monthly chart - currently 14 bars
Weekly chart - currently 12 bars
Daily chart - currently 11 bars
on either one of the above mentioned time frames, count the bars back in history, and you will find the MB
Yesterday, prices broke out to the low side, just 20 pips below the low of the MB on the weekly chart (and only about 5 pips below the low of the MB on the daily chart!), then traded back to the middle of the MB on the weekly (as well as the middle of the MB on the daily).
Best way to trade these congestions is on a faster time frame and stay within the confines of the MB
IT HARDLY EVERY FAILS!
But - one must be aware of the situation!
That's why it is extremely important to know how consolidations/congestions/trading ranges work and how they can be traded.
Because 90% of the time, prices are in one or the other, in any given time frame!
Conclusion... there was a VERY GOOD REASON why prices made a 'sharp u-turn' yesterday!
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Membre depuis Feb 19, 2014
posts 61
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
Jun 17, 2016 at 08:14
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
Balaaue86 posted:
please suggest me my by order is in 1.12600 can i close that or market moves up .... how many pips it moves in upside .....
The 4 hr chart is in congestion, currently on bar nr. 6 (worst bar to trade)
The 1 hr chart is in congestion, currently on bar nr. 10 (last bar to trade out of consolidation)
With a little luck, prices may trade to near 1.1300 in the next few hours.
Important question of course is... WHERE IS YOUR STOP placed?
Many trades trade without a stop... don't do it.
The stop/loss is the most important aspect in trading!
Without it, you are 'hoping'
And hope is one of the emotions one should not trade with!
Hope, greed, fear, anger and pride are a trader's worst enemies.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
Jun 17, 2016 at 12:18
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
EURUSD / 1 hr chart.
The current bar is bar nr. 14.
count 14 bars back and you'll find the MB.
If you are in a trade too soon, often bars 13 & 14 offer a chance to close a losing position with very little or no damage.
Sometimes even with a small profit.
First bar we trade out of congestion is bar nr. 17.
Best bars to trade out of a range is a bar between 21 and 29.
Often a doji bar is the first indication of the nearing end of the trading range.
If a congestion breaks before the 17th bar, then wait for the first hook aber the break.
It is the safest way to open a position.
The price bar formation rules have to be strictly followed.
This discipline completely eliminates any guessing and emotions.
The current bar is bar nr. 14.
count 14 bars back and you'll find the MB.
If you are in a trade too soon, often bars 13 & 14 offer a chance to close a losing position with very little or no damage.
Sometimes even with a small profit.
First bar we trade out of congestion is bar nr. 17.
Best bars to trade out of a range is a bar between 21 and 29.
Often a doji bar is the first indication of the nearing end of the trading range.
If a congestion breaks before the 17th bar, then wait for the first hook aber the break.
It is the safest way to open a position.
The price bar formation rules have to be strictly followed.
This discipline completely eliminates any guessing and emotions.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
Jun 17, 2016 at 15:08
Membre depuis Oct 08, 2011
posts 137
EURUSD / 1 hr chart update
it is important to notice, that the fake-break occurred on bar nr. 16, which is not a tradable bar according to the price bar formation rules.
Prices quickly turned and the bar closed right in the middle of the MB.
it is important to notice, that the fake-break occurred on bar nr. 16, which is not a tradable bar according to the price bar formation rules.
Prices quickly turned and the bar closed right in the middle of the MB.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Membre depuis Jul 10, 2014
posts 1117
Jun 17, 2016 at 15:29
Membre depuis Jul 10, 2014
posts 1117
Jun 19, 2016 at 09:37
Membre depuis Nov 16, 2015
posts 708
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