EUR/USD

Would you mind posting your long term trading history using the method you described. If you are using MT4 then hope it is not difficult to post a verified trading account here. Cheers.

I do not trade currencies, I teach price-bar formations. Some of my students trade currencies. With price-bar formations, any market can be traded. A chart is a chart, they all look the same and show the same formations.

After good news out of Germany this morning, Euro gain slightly against the dollar, 1.2420 level was tested.

Despite its descent on Friday EUR/USD reached the support level at 1.2350 and bounced back, forming what appears to be a double bottom on the daily filter chart, so a new movement to the upside is possible. On the other hand, the bearish trend is not over, so I doubt this is a long-term reversal. That said, a new drop will be confimed when or if it breaks below the support at 1.2350.

From the med day and the pair is over 1.24, sounds its gonna be long way to break below the 1.2350 support.

takechance posted:
We may see a green UP bar for today.

I have taken a small long position at 1.2365 which I will quit either at the end of the day or will hold for tomorrow depending upon how the day progresses.

Have a nice trading week ahead.

Nicely banked 70 pips from y'day long trade.

Cheers.

this week is going to be interesting alot of strong fundamental news on the euro.

sherifFares posted:
this week is going to be interesting alot of strong fundamental news on the euro.

You are right, it will be very interesting again.

Today will be a confusing day for both the bulls and the bears.

Yesterday's pullback has disappointed the bears a bit and the market right now is exactly at the 38.2% retracement level of the whole bull rally started from 7.11 till 19.11. It can go anywhere from this point, either quickly back to 1.2357 or to the 61.8% level at 1.2506 for a test.

I am getting a confusing signal favoring both directions hence think it is prudent to sit quite for today and watch.

The daily momentum studies indicate positive divergence between them and the price action, which gives additional reason to wait for a fall.
R3 - 1.25539
R2 - 1.24990
R1 - 1.24696
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24147
S1 - 1.23853
S2 - 1.23304
S3 - 1.23010

Possible correction on the EURUSD, but the pair remains vulnerable to further loses. Be careful.

EURUSD initially fell during the course of yesterday session, but found enough support to bounce back up from the 1.24 handle. However, this is a pair that in a strong downward trend, so we may expect some sideways consolidation and the pair should continue to stay below the 1.26 level in the foreseeable future.

Fundies this week remain focused on EU:
1. EU Assessments for 2015 budgets
2. EC President Juncker unveils a new 3yr 300bln euro infrastructure program by the EIB.

In short, the program is too small in capacity and therefore too small of scale to make an actual difference. Fundamentally, agree with the technicals for a bearish break lower towards 1.2000 initially. However, would expect overextended positioning leads to a whiplash before breaking down further.

sherifFares posted:
this week is going to be interesting alot of strong fundamental news on the euro.

Yes! Expect to encash all those wild swings....😎

EUR/USD daily-chart update:
as I posted last week, Friday's bar was the 6. bar in consolidation, which is the most difficult to trade. The low of Friday's bar did not violate the low of Nov. 11, (at least not on our FXCM charts), therefore the consolidation is still valid and currently on bar nr. 8.
A consolidation cannot have more than 10 bars.
The highs from last week's Wednesday, Thursday & Friday bars are still valid buy-stop entries.
Trade-entry buy-stop prices:
Last Wednesday: exact price of high
Last Thursday: high price + 1 pip
Last Friday: high price + 1 pip.

The high from yesterday (+ 1 pip) is also a valid entry, but very high risk!

If the low of Nov. 11 is violated (1.2356), then the entries above are not valid anymore.

If the high from last Wednesday breaks (1.2599) in the next couple days (without violating 1.2356) then yesterday's bar is called a 'thrust bar' and prices may rise significantly (1.2900 to 1.3000) over the next few weeks.

EUR/USD really did form a double bottom at the support at the 1.2350, which proved to be quite strong, and is now headed for 1.2570. Between that double bottom and the strong support I am starting to wonder whether this is not the beginning of a more long-term correction.

It would be my biggest problem if it is, and i hope so not.

I am curious how the market will change course more than one time this week with all the data coming out.

Going long on this pair for today seems to be prudent.

EUR / USD continued its recovery on Monday.
Looking at the daily momentum studies, we still see positive divergence between them and the price action, which stimulates thinking that is coming soon a new fall confirming the downward trend in the long run.
R3 - 1.25900
R2 - 1.25382
R1 - 1.25051
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24533
S1 - 1.24202
S2 - 1.23684
S3 - 1.23353