"Just Oil"

I am worried about my long sugar trade. Entered upon few considerations especially momentum and previous 5 months up move and consolidation along with failure to take last week low on weekly and subsequent reaction. Need to see how market opens on Monday night. So far everything looked like possible trend reversal but who knows. Let's see.

arigoldman posted:
I think it's all guesswork now.

Yes, it is messy.
I need to look for better easier opportunities for now. I am short eurusd. Situation so far is also unclear but if it drops even to previous lows... I won't talk about parity still it would worth the risk.

I fighting burnng desire to close my sugar long outright. I hate when trade is not going as I expected. May be will take small loss. Or can close half position outright than watching how things will go and if it continues going against me I can close the rest. On the other hand, if that 0.1390-0.1400 level is taken to upside again I can add back closed half.
It is complicated. But I hate taking full losses. Made number of mistakes this week around cad. it was fortunate I did realize what was going on in time and closed all my positions outright. cost me a bit but otherwise I would lose 4-5%. so far, it is 1000 cuts. small losers.
Now the most important is to properly manage winners and cut losers short.
I am short all grains. having doubts about corn cause unlike beans and wheat it is still in the range. But , considering all grains are coming down logic has been corn should follow. I can close it today just to reduce possible risk a bit and free some margin for some other trades.

Oil is tricky!

fter the pattern archived: as I mention the last post- the pattern suggests the bullish trend, for the coming trading sessions, pointing that the prices creating a possible bullish pattern that its confirmation wti level situated at 39-40 $, from looking at the charts we can see also the resistance at 42-43 area
This pattern also suggests some corrections after reaching the target. Breaking down 36.20 followed by 35.10 levels will send the crude oil to cope with 33-34 $

Expecting a decline.

Oil could break below the 37.00 level, but the 35.00 could act as support. The 200 day EMA around the 42.25 could act as resistance.

Tricky business hh

If oil continues dropping from the 37.00 level on WTI, then the 35.00 may act as support.

it should probably stay high and even continue up on hopes for a production freeze in Doha 17. April. As this is pretty unlikely with Irans refusal to stop raising the production, and Saudi-arabias statement that they will only agree if all agree, we will then see a sharpe drop. A comitment largely kept a float based on the oil ministers of Venezuela, Nigeria and Ecuador.

Both Russia and Iran have raised their production

ACAP posted:
no offence, but are you qualifiled?

That was my question, I believed there was a negative correlation of Oil to USDCAD, then I read a post that indicated that OIL FOLLOWS USDCAD.

WHICH IS CORRECT, CAN ANYONE JUST POST ANY BS THEY BELIEVE TO BE TRUE. IF SO, this is a very dangerous site!

A bearish bounce on oil WTI from the 200 day EMA may take the commodity to the 40.00 level.

It seems like oil is finally going up, but the fundamentals have to keep supporting the rally, otherwise the commodity may fall back down.

Expecting a move down.

The 46.00 level is acting as resistance for now on WTI oil. To the downside, the 200 day EMA may act as support.

One of my students is trading oil and making a killing on it,looking for a move higher.

Staying out at the moment.

IEA rapport out, while demand is up by 80.000, overproduction is still 250.000. The expansion of Shaybah oilfield is estimated to increase Saudi production by 250.000 by July (financial times two days ago). I see crude back below 40$ in a month unless some other OPEC countries cut production. Saudi arabia is likely not going to adjust down the production because of the IPO of Saudi Aramco.

7-month high! 49.46!