ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

Fresh Tariff Shock as Markets Eye Fed Policy Path

Market HighlightOn Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and reiterated that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also imminent. U.S. equities ended mixed as investors awaited further clarity on trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, but the U.S. dollar index gave back gains into the close. The Japanese yen weakened sharply after Trump reaffirmed plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea.

Gold prices fell by over 1% as optimism about U.S. trade negotiations with key partners diminished safe-haven demand. A stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields further pressured the price of gold. Spot gold declined 1% to $3,300.45 an ounce, reaching its lowest level in more than a week during the session.  Crude oil prices increased to a two-week high, influenced by downward revisions to U.S. production forecasts, a new Houthi attack on a Red Sea merchant vessel, concerns over copper tariffs, and technical short covering.

Key Outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its policy decision. After delivering the sixth rate cut of the cycle in May, markets widely expect the RBNZ to keep rates steady this time. The central bank is anticipated to maintain a dovish stance but is unlikely to commit to a specific timetable for further action. In the early hours of Thursday (Asia time), the Federal Reserve will release the Minutes of its June policy meeting. The Fed held rates steady in June, citing reduced but still elevated uncertainty, and projected two rate cuts in 2025. Investors will be scrutinizing for any additional details on the Fed’s outlook and policy guidance.

Key Data and Events Today: 

09:30 CN CPI MoM JUN **  

10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision *** 

11:00 RBNZ Press Conference *** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

Tomorrow

02:00 FOMC Minutes *** 

07:50 JP PPI YoY JUN ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1786 / 1.1831

· Support: 1.1683 / 1.1637

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1729 as optimism over an EU–U.S. trade deal continues to support the euro. Reports suggest the EU could receive a 10% baseline tariff exemption, offsetting Trump’s broader tariff threats. Technically, the pair is bouncing off the ascending trendline and the 1.1683 support level, with bulls targeting a potential move toward the 1.1786 resistance area.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3628 / 1.3689

· Support: 1.3529 / 1.3479

GBP/USD hovered near 1.3580 as Trump delayed tariffs to August 1 but ruled out further extensions. Price remains capped by the downtrend line and resistance at 1.3628, with support at 1.3529. Bearish bias holds below the trendline.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.23 / 148.02

· Support: 145.99/145.37

USD/JPY rose to 146.63 after Trump reaffirmed the 25% tariff threat on Japan and South Korea. Markets expect a gradual implementation, which should keep sentiment steady. The pair is now approaching the 147.24 resistance and the descending trendline, with a potential pullback if momentum wanes.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 69.00/ 70.55

· Support: 65.09/ 65.52

WTI crude rose to $68.12, marking a two-week high, supported by lower U.S. production forecasts, renewed Red Sea shipping threats, and technical short covering. Price is approaching the $69.00 resistance zone, where sellers may return if upside momentum stalls.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3320/3337

· Support: 3278/3264

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.76/37.00

· Support: 36.24/36.01

Gold fell over 1% to around $3,302 amid renewed optimism on trade negotiations, reducing its safe-haven appeal. Rising U.S. bond yields and a stronger dollar further pressured the price. Technically, XAU/USD stays capped below $3,320 and may retest the $3,278 support if the rejection persists.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45215/45921

· Support: 43541/42822

The Dow Jones dipped 0.37% to 44,240.76 as renewed copper tariff threats and rising trade tensions weighed on risk appetite. Investors await the Q2 earnings season and the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes for policy clues.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22882/23564

· Support: 22223/21381

The NAS100 closed slightly higher at 20418.46 as investors digested mixed trade headlines and sector rotations. Despite short-term hesitation near the 22,882 resistance, the index remains in a bullish structure. A dip toward 22,223 could spark fresh buying interest, with the potential to retest recent highs if sentiment stabilizes.

BTC

· Resistance: 109954/110587

· Support: 108503/107859

BTC/USD is attempting a breakout from the descending trendline while maintaining its position above the ascending channel. Price has formed a higher low near 108,500 and is testing the confluence zone around 108,800. If bulls defend the rising support and break above 109,000, the next upside target sits near the 109,954–110,587 resistance zone.

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