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The reflexion that proved to me by a+b that you can't be profitable in trading
Jan 04 at 14:34
Jan 04, 2025 부터 멤버
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I'm going to try to be as clear as possible, I hope you'll understand, if the trader's aim to be profitable over the long term would be to find a strategy based on observations of series of signals that are repeated historically in the chart allowing to have data, fixed and permanent variables in order to be able to repeat it in an identical way to try to anticipate the next price movements, and thus reduce the randomness as much as possible which also allows to avoid the trap of emotions, fomo, biased vision etc... in order to aim for the most predictable and regular results over time, and that the way to find the strategy would be to carry out backtests in order to build a data and solidify the probabilities that the results are the same. . in order to aim for the most predictable and regular results over time, and that the way to find the strategy would be to carry out backtests in order to build up data and solidify the probabilities that the results will be similar on the real market, but! The golden rule is that the market will always do what it wants and that it is unpredictable, so how can a strategy be so reliable as to ensure consistent results in the market, how can I be sure of the consistency of my strategy if no matter what the market will always do what it wants, How can I be sure that I'm really increasing the probability of anticipating the price result if, in the end, the market is random, no matter how many simulation trades are tested, because, for example, whether it's 50, 100 or 10,000 test trades that, let's imagine, bring a promising result, what's to say that it's not going to be the same? Forecasting the future of the market is equivalent to doing infinity in terms of the number of test trades, which is impossible. In conclusion, we couldn't predict what the price is going to do reliably and regularly over time, whatever the strategy... that seems absurd to me because it would mean that it's impossible to be profitable over time and that it calls into question the usefulness of backtests...

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