Backtest in the past is good, in the past is bad. What's happening?

Aug 21, 2016 at 07:06
439 개의 뷰
2 Replies
JHenrique
forex_trader_318221
Apr 07, 2016 부터 멤버   게시물32
Aug 21, 2016 at 07:06
Hi guys!

I have an EA and it works without none indicator or fundamental decision. The EA is purely statistical (NO martingale). And it seems work very very well!

See the backtest since 2013 until today:


Initial deposit = 10 000 USD
Fixed lot = 1.00





But, I have a problem, this graphic is common in all pair of currencies. The EA always make too much money, but, in the last three months, it doesn’t gain money. I don’t why! The number of positions in the last three months is equal the number in the last 3 years. In others words, this EA lost money with spread.

Why!?!? Would be the last thee mounts the real performance of this EA? Would be that database is with bug? Would be that is possible or impossible reproduce the past performance in the present moment?

Someone here has had the same problem?
forex_trader_25447
Dec 21, 2010 부터 멤버   게시물131
Aug 21, 2016 at 21:23
One of the possible reasons is NEGATIVE SWAP.
 It is accumulated daily to any open trade, but You see this result only on close !
If You have many trades opened for more than 1 day
 It is normal when You have Positive Profit, to get Negative Swap, and final Negative result.
Watch more detailed to the orders closed by tester at the end of test.
 (comment in journal like this : 'Tester: order #xxxx is closed')

One-other reason is a bit complex for me to explain, I will try.
If Your account currency is USD , and You trade EURUSD. You Profit is in USD.
Many people use PIPS to calculate PROFIT , but if price made some bigger move (form 1.10 to 1.15)
the price of 1 pips at 1.10 is higher than price of 1 pips at 1.15 (USD is cheaper at 1.15)
This way, if you have 100 pips loss at 1.10 , and 100 pips profit at 1.15,
the result is 0 PIPS, but it is NEGATIVE in money.
Simply EA must calculate MONEY, not PIPS.
I hope You understand me.
Nov 14, 2015 부터 멤버   게시물325
Aug 22, 2016 at 00:17
n/a model quality. Means your backtest is likely broken, should always have 90% if you get the data from history, or 99/99.9 if you use one of the tick backtests.
로그인 / 가입하기 to comment
You must be connected to Myfxbook in order to leave a comment
*상업적 사용 및 스팸은 허용되지 않으며 계정이 해지될 수 있습니다.
팁: 이미지/유튜브 URL을 게시하면 게시물에 자동으로 삽입됩니다!
팁: @기호를 입력하여 이 토론에 참여하는 사용자 이름을 자동으로 완성합니다.