EURNOK Exchange Rate

Euro area jobless rate remained unchanged at a record low for the fifth month in a row in March and the unemployment decreased, while a tight labor market could urge the European Central Bank to remain cautious even as policymakers gear up for an interest rate cut in June. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.5 percent in March, which is the same level as in the previous four months.

Unemployment figures from the euro area and Spain, and the purchasing managers' survey results for the services sector from the U.K. are the highlights on the economics front on Friday. Eurozone jobless rate is expected to remain steady at 6.5 percent in March. Eurostat is set to release the data at 05:00 am ET.

The euro area economy expanded in the first quarter after two consecutive declines as all big four economies exhibited better performance, boosting hopes of a sustained recovery this year. Gross domestic product grew by a faster-than-expected 0.3 percent sequentially following a 0.1 percent fall each in the fourth and third quarters of 2023, preliminary flash estimates from Eurostat showed.

The German economy avoided a recession in the first quarter on exports and investment in construction, preliminary data from Destatis showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product grew a more-than-expected 0.2 percent sequentially in the first quarter, in contrast to the revised 0.5 percent decrease in the preceding three months.

As I reflect on the recent events in the foreign exchange market, it becomes apparent that stability prevailed overnight, following the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Despite the report triggering a brief uptick in volatility, the overall impact on the market seemed limited.

Late cycle dollar strength meets the carry trade. I see two key themes driving FX markets in the near term. The first is central banks continuing to battle inflation, yield curves staying inverted, and the dollar continuing to hold gains. The second is cross-market volatility continuing to sink - generating greater interest in the carry trade. Expect these trends to hold into Fed, ECB and BoJ meet