ATFX Market Outlook 28th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 28th May 2025

U.S. Confidence Rebounds, Dragging Down Gold and Crude

Market HighlightApril saw the most significant decline in durable orders in six months, amid persistent uncertainties about tariffs. However, a rebound in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index provided a pleasant surprise. U.S. equities surged on Tuesday, buoyed by President Trump’s signals on tariff relief and improving consumer sentiment. The Dow ended up 1.78%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.05%, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.47%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell, as expectations that Japan would reduce its long-term bond issuance helped alleviate concerns over rising global bond supply. The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the dollar index rebounding above the 99 level, propelled by improved consumer confidence. The yen weakened as Japanese long-term bond yields dropped significantly.

Gold declined for a second consecutive session as risk sentiment improved following Trump’s decision to delay tariff hikes on EU imports. Spot gold decreased by 1.3% to $3,299.56 per ounce. Oil prices also fell by 1% due to progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and expectations that OPEC+ may opt to increase output at this week’s meeting, raising concerns over a supply surplus.

Key Outlook

In today’s session, markets are focusing on the RBNZ rate decision, with expectations leaning towards another cut. Attention during the European and U.S. hours will shift to Germany’s May unemployment rate, which is projected to remain at 6.3% for a third consecutive month, indicating a fragile recovery in the labor market. In the U.S., the May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated to remain negative but may improve slightly to -9 from -13. Meanwhile, oil traders are awaiting the OPEC+ ministerial meeting for confirmation of a potential output increase. Late at night, traders await the FOMC minutes to guide their path on the rate cut.

Key Data and Events Today:

11:00 RBNZ Press Conference *** 

15:55 EU German Unemployment Rate MAY ** 

18:00 OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting *** 

21:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks ** 

23:00 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks ** 

Tomorrow

Switzerland, Germany and Italy Holiday

02:00 FOMC Minutes *** 

04:30 API Crude Inventories Change *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US Pending Home Sales APR ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1384 / 1.1418

· Support: 1.1273 / 1.1239

EUR/USD fell 0.61% to 1.1324 amid weak French inflation and a stronger dollar. The pair is approaching the lower end of its ascending channel, with 1.1300 as a key support level. A break lower could target 1.1273. Markets await U.S. PCE data for further direction of the dollar.

 GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3554 / 1.3594

· Support: 1.3461 / 1.3420

GBP/USD has snapped a six-day winning streak, retreating to around 1.3500 as the dollar strengthened and traders trimmed long positions ahead of important U.S. data. The pair may discover support near 1.3461, with the potential for a rebound along the trendline towards the 1.3554 resistance zone if this level holds.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.61 / 145.38

· Support: 143.66/142.87

USD/JPY rose to 144.47 as Japan’s potential reduction in long-term bond issuance and declining yields exerted pressure on the yen. Technically, the pair has broken a descending trendline and is currently pulling back below 144.61. A rebound from the 143.66 support level may trigger the next bullish leg.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 61.61/ 62.10

· Support: 60.65/ 60.05

WTI crude fell 1% to $60.89 due to progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and expectations of increased OPEC+ output, raising supply concerns. Technically, the price consolidates above key support at $60.05. Maintaining this level could lead to a retest of $61.61; failing to do so may result in a decline towards $59.00.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3338/3367

· Support: 3273/3244

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.42/33.61

· Support: 33.00/32.81

Gold fell for a second consecutive session, trading near $3,303, as risk sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened following Trump’s delay on EU tariffs. Technically, XAU/USD rejected the $3,338 resistance zone; a failure to hold above $3,273 could trigger further declines.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42966/43309

· Support: 41931/41487

Dow Futures climbed 1.78% to 42,343, bolstered by tariff relief and a robust rebound in U.S. consumer confidence. Technically, the index rebounded off the 41,931 support zone. Should this level hold during a retest, the next upside target sits near 42,966.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21743/22171

· Support: 21180/20729

The NAS100 surged by 2.47%, driven by strength in AI and tech stocks, with semiconductors rallying ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Technically, the price has broken above the descending trendline and is holding above the 21,180 support level. A successful retest could lead to a move towards the 21,743 resistance zone.

 BTC

· Resistance: 109964/110593

· Support: 107929/107290

Bitcoin remains above the crucial $104K–$107K re-accumulation zone, currently trading at $108,925 with a bullish structure still intact. A breakout above $110,593 will initiate a move towards $ 122k. Meanwhile, Trump Media has announced a $2.5B corporate bitcoin strategy, incorporating BTC into its balance sheet, which is likely to enhance institutional confidence in crypto assets.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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