Cautious Optimism Emerges Amid Calming US–China Trade Relations | 14th October 2025

Cautious Optimism Returns

Financial markets opened the week on a cautiously optimistic note as signs of easing tension between the US and China lifted sentiment across major asset classes. The US Dollar Index steadied above 99.00, while commodities such as WTI crude oil edged higher amid renewed hopes for dialogue and trade compromise. However, investors remain guarded, awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key macroeconomic releases later in the week to confirm whether this optimism has sustainable backing.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index trades around 99.05, holding above recent lows as investors digest encouraging signs from renewed US–China dialogue. Market participants appear hesitant to take large directional bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which could set the tone for near-term monetary policy expectations.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Easing US–China tensions have tempered safe-haven demand, providing modest support to risk assets.

US Economic Data: Traders await US CPI and retail sales figures later this week for inflation guidance.

FOMC Outcome: Markets expect Powell’s comments to clarify the Fed’s stance on future rate adjustments.

Trade Policy: Prospects of resumed trade talks between Washington and Beijing underpin a cautious recovery in sentiment.

Monetary Policy: Rate-cut bets remain in play, but reduced trade risk could limit dovish momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish bias as DXY stabilizes above key support.

Resistance: 99.40 and 99.75.

Support: 98.70 and 98.30.

Forecast: The Dollar may consolidate within a tight range, awaiting clarity from Fed communication.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Balanced, as traders shift from defensive positions to cautiously optimistic tones.

Catalysts: Powell’s speech, US inflation data, and geopolitical updates.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast (WTI/USD)

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades near $59.50, supported by improving market risk sentiment and optimism that US–China relations may stabilize. The commodity rebounded after dipping last week, as investors priced out immediate concerns of escalating tariffs.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Cooling tensions between the US and China lift demand expectations.

US Economic Data: US inventory data from the EIA will offer near-term direction.

FOMC Outcome: Softer Fed language could support growth-sensitive assets like oil.

Trade Policy: Positive developments in US–China trade discussions improve the global growth outlook.

Monetary Policy: Potential rate cuts would likely boost consumption and energy demand. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mildly bullish after reclaiming $59.50 support.

Resistance: $60.20 and $61.00.

Support: $58.50 and $57.80.

Forecast: WTI could aim for a short-term recovery toward $60.50 if sentiment remains stable.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Improving, with investors shifting back into risk assets.

Catalysts: API/EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ commentary, and trade headlines.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2590, holding steady as traders await the UK employment report. The pair remains sensitive to shifts in US yields and Dollar sentiment, with limited domestic catalysts ahead of the Bank of England’s next meeting.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global risk mood and trade developments indirectly weigh on Sterling.

US Economic Data: Powell’s remarks and US CPI data to drive short-term moves.

FOMC Outcome: Hawkish hints could pressure the pair further.

Trade Policy: Calmer global trade tone may provide Sterling some support through risk appetite.

Monetary Policy: BoE expected to maintain a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Consolidative, with mild downside risk.

Resistance: 1.2630 and 1.2680.

Support: 1.2530 and 1.2480.

Forecast: GBP/USD could remain rangebound until key UK data or Fed signals trigger volatility. 

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral; traders await fresh catalysts.

Catalysts: UK jobs report, Powell’s speech, and US CPI release.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD trades near 1.4050, slightly below recent highs as WTI’s recovery helps limit further upside. The Loonie remains under pressure from broad US Dollar firmness but gains some support from energy market stabilization.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global uncertainty supports commodity-linked currencies.

US Economic Data: Upcoming US inflation data will influence Fed rate expectations.

FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed tones could keep the pair elevated.

Trade Policy: Trade détente between US and China supports Canadian export outlook.

Monetary Policy: The BoC remains cautious, aligning with global easing trends.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Uptrend remains intact but losing momentum.

Resistance: 1.4080 and 1.4120.

Support: 1.3980 and 1.3920.

Forecast: USD/CAD may consolidate, with downside bias if oil continues to recover.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish for USD; cautious optimism for CAD.

Catalysts: Oil price swings, Powell’s comments, and Canadian data releases.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades around 0.6535, retreating slightly as the US Dollar holds ground amid improved trade outlook. The Australian Dollar continues to face headwinds from domestic softness and cautious global sentiment.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Calmer US–China tone offers limited support to risk currencies.

US Economic Data: CPI and Powell’s speech remain major catalysts for the USD leg.

FOMC Outcome: Markets watch for clues of potential rate cuts later this year.

Trade Policy: Slight improvement in US–China relations stabilizes commodity sentiment.

Monetary Policy: RBA expected to stay patient amid subdued consumer data.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mildly bearish bias.

Resistance: 0.6570 and 0.6610.

Support: 0.6500 and 0.6470.

Forecast: The Aussie could stay under pressure unless risk sentiment improves further.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish.

Catalysts: RBA outlook, US CPI, and global risk flows.

Wrap-up

Overall, today’s market tone reflects a fragile balance between optimism and caution. The moderation in US–China rhetoric is providing short-term relief, but traders continue to brace for potential policy shifts and data-driven surprises. As risk appetite recovers slowly, focus now turns to Powell’s speech and upcoming inflation indicators for clearer guidance on the Fed’s next move and the broader market direction.This week’s focus will shift toward US retail sales data, Fed officials’ speeches, and any new trade policy headlines that could reshape risk sentiment across global markets.

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