Dollar Falls, Pound Gains: May 15, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 20th May, 2025

Dollar Falls, Pound Gains: May 20, 2025

Global financial markets on May 20, 2025, are driven by central bank actions and geopolitical developments, with focus on the RBA’s press conference post-rate cut, PBoC’s LPR reduction, and potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. The US Dollar weakens (DXY at 100.60) after Moody’s downgrade, lifting GBP/USD and NZD/USD, while AUD/JPY softens amid JPY strength. Gold and silver face pressure, with Fed rate-cut bets (September start) and US data in focus.

Gold Vulnerable Above $3,200

Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,200, down from recent highs.

Market Dynamics: Optimism over Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and US-China trade truce (90-day tariff pause) reduces safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. Moody’s US credit downgrade (Aa1) and softer US data (CPI 2.3% YoY, PPI -0.5% MoM) boost Fed rate-cut bets, capping USD strength but failing to lift gold. Geopolitical risks (Gaza offensive) offer limited support. Fed speeches today are key.

Technical Outlook: Support at $3,178; resistance at $3,252. Bearish oscillators signal downside, with $3,120 as a target.

 AUD/JPY Softens to 93.00

Current Level: AUD/JPY trades near 93.00, down 0.55%.

Key Drivers: RBA’s 25 bps rate cut to 3.85% weakens AUD, with Governor Bullock’s press conference (05:30 GMT) critical for guidance on global trade risks. BoJ’s hawkish stance (Uchida’s rate-hike comments) and Japan’s PPI pressures bolster JPY. US-China trade optimism caps JPY gains, with RBA’s tone and Fed speeches as catalysts.

Technical Outlook: Support at 92.50; resistance at 94.00. RSI below 50 favors bears, with press conference pivotal.

 GBP/USD Holds Above 1.3360

Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3360, up for the second day.

Key Drivers: USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade (Aa1) and soft US data (PPI -0.5% MoM, Retail Sales +0.1%) lift GBP. Strong UK GDP (1% projected) and steady unemployment (4.5%) reduce BoE easing bets. UK CPI (Wednesday, core 3.6% YoY expected) will shape BoE policy views, with Fed speeches influencing USD.

Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3400; support at 1.3300. RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum, with CPI key.

 NZD/USD Subdued Near 0.5920

Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.5920, slightly down.

Market Dynamics: PBoC’s LPR cut (1-year to 3.00%) pressures NZD due to New Zealand’s trade ties with China. Q1 producer price spikes signal inflation, supporting NZD, but Russia-Ukraine ceasefire optimism weighs. Moody’s US downgrade weakens USD, aiding NZD/USD. RBA’s rate cut and press conference are focal points.

Technical Outlook: Support at 0.5900; resistance at 0.6000. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation, with RBA tone critical.

 Silver Falls Toward $32.20

Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $32.20, down for the third day.

Market Dynamics: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring silver. Moody’s US downgrade and Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) limit losses, but risk-on sentiment dominates. US data (CPI 2.3% YoY) and Fed speeches drive sentiment, with Middle East tensions offering minor support.

Technical Outlook: Support at $32.00; resistance at $32.50. Bearish RSI below 50 signals downside, with $30.00 in view.

 Japanese Yen Lifts USD/JPY

Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 144.80, below 145.00.

Key Drivers: JPY strengthens on BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish comments) and Japan’s inflation pressures. USD weakens post-Moody’s downgrade and dovish Fed signals (74% chance of September cut). Russia-Ukraine talks cap JPY’s safe-haven demand, with Fed speeches and G7 FX talks (Bessent absent) as catalysts.

Technical Outlook: Support at 144.65; resistance at 146.00. Bearish oscillators favor downside, with 144.00 as a target.

Today’s Data: No major US data releases, but Fed speeches (Bostic, Jefferson, Kashkari, Williams) will shape rate-cut expectations (two cuts priced in). UK CPI (Wednesday) and US UoM Consumer Sentiment (last week: 53.4 expected) remain in focus. Australian jobs (+89,000) and RBA’s rate cut influence AUD sentiment.

Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks (Trump’s announcement) and Gaza escalations (Israeli offensive) reduce safe-haven flows, though Middle East risks persist. US-Iran nuclear talks add optimism.

China Data: PBoC’s LPR cut (3.00%) and mixed April data (strong industrial output, weak retail sales) pressure NZD and AUD. Trade surplus ($96.18 billion) reflects slower export growth (8.1% YoY).

US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks

Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) and chipmaker blacklist concerns sustain risk-on sentiment, but uncertainties linger. US-UK deal (10% tariffs) supports GBP.

Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine talks and US-Iran nuclear optimism reduce JPY and gold demand, while Gaza operations and India-Pakistan risks maintain some safe-haven interest.

Outlook

On May 20, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 100.60) lifts GBP/USD (1.3360) and NZD/USD (0.5920), while JPY strength pressures AUD/JPY (93.00) and USD/JPY (144.80). Gold ($3,200) and silver ($32.20) face downside amid ceasefire optimism. RBA’s press conference, Fed speeches, and UK CPI will drive volatility, with geopolitical risks and US data in focus.

Stay tuned for further updates.