Posts de psaTrading - Página 24

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 17, 2016 at 11:13

A freeze on production will not generate a profound change in the supply/demand relationship for crude, but is a stabilizing base to its price. However, many investors argue that this agreement was less than expected (it was agreed a freeze in production but its not a cut), and they also had shown skeptical if this freeze will be extended to other countries and if it will be fully met. Despite all this engaging, at this stage, European investors seemed more focused on the banking sector yesterday which was once again penalized. Last week, Deutsche Bank had been a kind of “health” b...

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 16, 2016 at 20:09

If several central banks engage in negative interest rates, we will be able to watch a currency war in which each country tries to devalue the most of their currency in order to gain a competitive advantage in terms of exports.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 15, 2016 at 12:22

At a time when many investors fear about the growth of the American economy, because of the weakness of other economies, the signal given by retail sales is comforting for two reasons. The first is that retail sales account for about a third of private consumption, which in turn corresponds to 70% of GDP. The second is that after several months, the American consumer seems to have a greater propensity to consume, justified by the increase in wages and the positive effect of fuel price drop in their disposable income.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 12, 2016 at 10:56

At a time when many investors and economists fear a potential recession in the global economy, the publication of the preliminary reading of the Eurozone GDP gains greater relevance. Compared to the previous quarter, the Eurozone economy will have grown 0.40%, which would put the annual increase in 1.50%. Underpinning this growth was essentially domestic demand and to a lesser extent investment. These items should have offset the slowdown in exports due to the weakening of China and other emerging economies. For 2016, estimates point, on average, for an increase between 1.50% and 1.80%, helpe...

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 11, 2016 at 11:26

The banking sector will continue to be the protagonist of the European session. Until last week Italian banks had been chosen as a representative sample of the sector, but at this stage that role was taken over by Deutsche Bank. The bank’s activity has been penalized by restructuring costs and the legal costs associated with the various processes in which the bank is or was involved, the costs associated with greater regulation and also by the low levels of interest rates. In addition, investors will monitor developments in the oil and also the testimony of Janet Yellen in the Senate (15...

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 10, 2016 at 15:26

In recent sessions, European equities have been under strong selling pressure and since the beginning of the year have recorded a underperformance compared to their US counterparts. The reasons for this pattern are several. The first is that the European economy is far more exposed to China than the US. Another reason has to do with the resurgence of fears about the banking sector in different European countries. Another cause of selling pressure on European equities is that in December these equities are the first choice of global investors who had overexposure to European equity indices, jus...

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 09, 2016 at 17:28

It looks like European stocks are heading for 2013 low.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 08, 2016 at 09:08

With closed Asian markets, oil prices should capture the attention, and the trading volume should be more restrained. In terms of consolidation movements, the French retailer Casino has agreed to sell a majority stake in the Thai operator of supermarket Big C Supercenter by 3,100 M €, excluding debt to the Thai TCC Group. On the other hand, the Air France KLM said passenger traffic grew 3.20% in January, while the traffic loads decreased 6.40%.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 05, 2016 at 15:29

Despite the recent acceleration, wages are not fully mirroring, the improvements in the labor market.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 04, 2016 at 14:54

The Governor of New-York Fed, said that conditions in financial markets and the global economy serve as compelling evidence to the US economy, with the same effects of a rise in interest rates. Investors interpreted the words of William Dudley as a lower propensity of the Central Bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting in March.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 03, 2016 at 19:38

Perhaps the overperformance of the Chinese market was due to the approach of the New Year festivities and the possibility (purely hypothetical) that the Bank of China to surprise the financial markets during this period with some monetary measure

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 02, 2016 at 20:27

It seems that the GBP/USD move to the downside is over for now.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Feb 01, 2016 at 19:34

Regarding the potential of the ongoing recovery, this will depend on the behavior of oil and Chinese financial markets. From a technical point of view, and considering the DAX as a sample of European markets, the first obstacle relevant to the rise of the German index is located in the zone of 10170-10270. The recovery is expected to be much more volatile than in the last years. It is not excluded that this upward movement is interrupted by negative sessions, in which may occur sharp devaluations.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 29, 2016 at 17:21

Asian markets closed with sharp gains, due to the somewhat surprising decision by the Bank of Japan. Challenging economists’ forecasts, which point to an extension of the asset purchase program, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce the interest rate on deposits which the Nipponese banks have with this institution to -0.10%. This measure is not innovative but takes the surprise character in that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently to have shown skeptical to the adoption of negative interest rates.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 28, 2016 at 14:11

In the European session will be the scene of two opposite forces: a negative reaction from Wall Street to the Fed decision and the appreciation of oil in the New York session.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 27, 2016 at 15:36

The meeting of the Fed today will not bring major changes in relation to what was broadcast to the market at its December meeting. Last month, the oil retreated over 25%, with a negative impact on inflation and hindering the task of driving the Fed to levels close to 2%. Given this trend, investors will monitor the reference of the Fed for inflation, it is not excluded the minutes to reveal the apprehension of the members of the Central Bank, which would lead investors to believe not only that the Fed will not raise rates at the March meeting as the number of increases may be smaller than ant...

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 26, 2016 at 14:43

From a technical point of view, while the S & P stays above 1800 points, there remains a reasonable probability that the stock markets entering into a recovery.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 25, 2016 at 15:00

he value of crude oil was undoubtedly the main catalyst of Wall Street’s rise on Friday. Oil posted the largest daily increase since August of last year valuing up 9%.

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 22, 2016 at 16:16

For a more enduring reversal of investor sentiment, the statements of Mario Draghi do not seem to be enough. To attend a recovery of stock markets, it should be confirmed any of the following conditions:– The decline in fears about a devaluation of the Yuan (which has already been happening)– The stabilization of the Chinese markets– The oil recovery

Trading Journal em Novos Negociantes Jan 21, 2016 at 15:45

Today US oil reserves will be released. In recent weeks, there has been a fairly volatile and distant readings forecast of economists. Despite this volatility is possible to trace a pattern, characterized by a much smaller increase in oil reserves and a sharp increase in gas reserves. Economists estimate that crude oil reserves have increased 2.6 M.USD and gasoline 1.9 M.USD.

EURUSD	1.12837	GBPUSD	1.32644	AUDUSD	0.6451
USDJPY	144.055	USDCAD	1.38388	USDCHF	0.8247

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