ATFX Market Outlook 9th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th June 2025

NFP Cools Rate Cut Bets, Spotlight Shifts to U.S.-China Trade Talks

Market HighlightThe U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May—slower than in April, but still enough to sustain economic expansion thanks to steady wage growth. The report dampened hopes for a third Fed rate cut in 2025, with markets now pricing in just two cuts for the year. U.S. equities closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% for the week, the Dow rising 1.17%, and the Nasdaq climbing 2.18%.

Stronger-than-expected payroll figures eased concerns about the U.S. economy. Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened as the data signalled a resilient labour market, reducing the urgency for the Fed to resume rate cuts anytime soon.

Gold prices slid 1.3% to $3,309.67/oz after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Still, gold posted a 0.8% weekly gain. Silver briefly surged to its highest since 2012. Crude oil rose by over 2%, marking its first weekly gain in three weeks, as supported by upbeat employment data and optimism over revived U.S.-China trade talks, which boosted hopes for global growth.

Key Outlook

Markets will continue digesting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payroll report on Monday while monitoring U.S.-China trade talks held in London. On the U.S. data front, focus will be on April wholesale sales and the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations for May. Any further rise in inflation expectations could reflect the impact of tariffs and weigh on consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook.

Key Data and Events Today:

European Trading Session, US-China Trade Talks

11:00 CN Trade Balance MAY ** 

22:00 US Wholesales Inventories APR **

23:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY ** 

Tomorrow

08:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence JUN ** 

09:30 AU NAB Business Confidence JUN ** 

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate APR ** 

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1444 / 1.1469

· Support: 1.1388 / 1.1314

EUR/USD dropped to 1.1395 as strong U.S. payrolls and rising Treasury yields weighed on the euro. Despite the decline, the pair remains within its ascending channel. Traders now eye the 1.1388 support area. If held, the euro may rebound toward the 1.1444 resistance on expectations that the Fed may delay its rate cuts.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3593 / 1.3614

· Support: 1.3481 / 1.3455

GBPUSD has eased from its highs as broad USD strength resumed following the release of positive NFP data. Investors are now turning to the potential divergence between the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance and the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decisions. The price hovers below the 1.3593 resistance; a breakout or rejection may define near-term momentum.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 145.25 / 145.70

· Support: 144.33/143.86

USD/JPY surged to 144.87 as strong U.S. job data pushed back Fed rate-cut expectations. The yen weakened on improved risk sentiment, while the pair now consolidates near a key support-turned-resistance zone. A break above 145.25 may open room for further upside, while a dip back below 144.33 could trigger deeper retracement.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 65.44/ 65.82

· Support: 63.82/ 63.43

WTI crude climbed over 2% to $64.58, representing its first weekly gain in three weeks. The rally was driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls and renewed trade negotiations between China and the U.S., enhancing demand optimism. Price action remains above the breakout zone, with 63.82 serving as key support and potential upside towards 65.44 if the trendline holds.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3343/3366

· Support: 3287/3269

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.44/36.85

· Support: 35.29/34.80

Spot gold fell over 1% to $3,309/oz after stronger-than-anticipated U.S. payrolls diminished market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although the metal still concluded the week up by 0.8%, the loss of trendline support and breaking below $3,343 indicates a short-term downside risk. Attention now turns to $3,287 and $3,269 as near-term support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43016/43194

· Support: 42451/42275

The Dow Futures climbed 1.05% to 42,762.62, as stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls eased recession fears and supported risk sentiment. Price broke above the long-term triangle resistance and is now testing the breakout zone. If support near 42,451 holds, further upside toward the 43,016 handle remains possible.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21920/22003

· Support: 21567/21485

NAS100 gained 1.20% to 19,529.95, driven by a sharp rebound in technology shares. Tesla rallied 3.8%, recouping part of its prior losses. Price action is approaching trendline support near 21,485, and a successful retest could pave the way for an extension toward the 21,920 resistance level.

 BTC

· Resistance: 106841/108072

· Support: 104380/102858

Bitcoin hovered around $105,500 after Saylor hinted at continued accumulation and Strategy’s $1B stock offering. Despite bullish sentiment, resistance at $106,841 remains intact, while technical structure suggests a potential pullback toward $104,380 if momentum fades. Monitor price action for directional clues ahead of CPI data later this week.

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