EURCHF Exchange Rate

The euro area private sector growth accelerated to an 11-month high in April driven by the service sector, final survey results from S&P Global showed on Monday. The HCOB composite output index rose to 51.7 in April from 50.3 in the previous month. The flash estimate was 51.4.

Eurozone investor confidence improved for the seventh straight month in May to hit the highest level since February 2022 as both current situation and expectations rose in small but steady steps, a closely watched survey showed on Monday. The investor confidence index posted -3.6 in May, the behavioral research institute Sentix reported. The score was forecast to improve moderately to -4.8.

Euro area jobless rate remained unchanged at a record low for the fifth month in a row in March and the unemployment decreased, while a tight labor market could urge the European Central Bank to remain cautious even as policymakers gear up for an interest rate cut in June. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.5 percent in March, which is the same level as in the previous four months.

Unemployment figures from the euro area and Spain, and the purchasing managers' survey results for the services sector from the U.K. are the highlights on the economics front on Friday. Eurozone jobless rate is expected to remain steady at 6.5 percent in March. Eurostat is set to release the data at 05:00 am ET.

Expert market comment made by senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: CHF renewed its decline on weak inflation

Last Thursday marked the conclusion of February, closing with a surge in equities. The market attributed these movements to the in-line Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print, which alleviated concerns of another spike in inflation.

The CHF's Mardi Gras celebrations are devoid of any late indulgence, as its February losses have deepened due to the unexpected downturn in the Swiss CPI data. Credit Agricole longstanding warning about the CHF's robust start to 2024, coupled with the SNB's altered stance on FX interventions in December, has manifested in the currency's struggles.

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from its recent low of 1.0450, but it could struggle to find enough buyers as it approaches the 1.0530/1.0550 range. The US dollar remains an unattractive sell, and there is currently no compelling narrative in the eurozone to counter the exceptionalism story in the United States.