EUR/USD

USD: Payrolls may finally start softening

The post-FOMC bias has been markedly bearish on the dollar, and despite the US payrolls risk event today, markets have continued to squeeze USD long positioning yesterday and overnight. The yen remains a major contributor to the soft dollar momentum. Earlier this week, we noted how USD/JPY was showing the same kind of dynamics around and straight after FX intervention in September 2022, when the pair had steadily ground higher in the period after Japan intervened to support the yen. However, the second round of JPY intervention in one week, deployed after a less hawkish than expected FOMC on Wednesday, has sent markets the message that the Ministry of Finance is less tolerant of a post-intervention depreciation of the yen this time. With the help of a rally in short-term USD swaps, USD/JPY is trading just below 153 this morning, around 4.5% below its 160 peak on Monday.

Today’s US payrolls are a huge event for markets, as the details in the jobs report will be a key test to more optimistic bets on Fed rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell defied the hawkish repricing of the USD curve. Fed funds futures are now again pricing in a rate cut in November, with the September contract showing -20bp and the July one -10bp. The dollar 2-year swap rate is down to 4.80% from 4.95% pre-FOMC, and applying material downside pressure on the dollar.
The consensus for today’s April nonfarm payroll print is 240k, and our call is 210k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%. We note that – despite the continued strength in the latest payroll prints – business surveys still point to a substantial slowing in employment. One of those surveys is the ISM, whose services component is also released this afternoon and expected to come in at 52.0, up from 51.4 in March.

Like in previous jobs releases, the discussion around data quality will be central. The payroll survey has continued to give contrasting indications to the household employment data, which has been much weaker since 4Q23. The household survey is thought to be missing a proper adjustment for rising immigration in the US, essentially underestimating the total workforce and showing inaccurately lower unemployment rates. On the other hand, payrolls may be doing some double counting as the number of Americans holding multiple jobs is at a 30-year high and the birth-death adjustment is generally considered to be pumping up the jobs figures. A convergence of any of those series towards the other would be a crucial development in the coming months.

All in all, our 210k call for payrolls means we do not expect today’s data to dent the bearish dollar momentum as markets may fully price in a cut in September and keep short-term USD rates capped. CFTC data shows net-speculative positioning on the dollar versus reported G10 currencies was at 24% of open interest, the highest since June 2019, so the room for a further long squeeze in the dollar remains substantial should US data soften over the coming weeks.

LinoCapital posted:
USD: Payrolls may finally start softening

The post-FOMC bias has been markedly bearish on the dollar, and despite the US payrolls risk event today, markets have continued to squeeze USD long positioning yesterday and overnight. The yen remains a major contributor to the soft dollar momentum. Earlier this week, we noted how USD/JPY was showing the same kind of dynamics around and straight after FX intervention in September 2022, when the pair had steadily ground higher in the period after Japan intervened to support the yen. However, the second round of JPY intervention in one week, deployed after a less hawkish than expected FOMC on Wednesday, has sent markets the message that the Ministry of Finance is less tolerant of a post-intervention depreciation of the yen this time. With the help of a rally in short-term USD swaps, USD/JPY is trading just below 153 this morning, around 4.5% below its 160 peak on Monday.

Today’s US payrolls are a huge event for markets, as the details in the jobs report will be a key test to more optimistic bets on Fed rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell defied the hawkish repricing of the USD curve. Fed funds futures are now again pricing in a rate cut in November, with the September contract showing -20bp and the July one -10bp. The dollar 2-year swap rate is down to 4.80% from 4.95% pre-FOMC, and applying material downside pressure on the dollar.
The consensus for today’s April nonfarm payroll print is 240k, and our call is 210k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%. We note that – despite the continued strength in the latest payroll prints – business surveys still point to a substantial slowing in employment. One of those surveys is the ISM, whose services component is also released this afternoon and expected to come in at 52.0, up from 51.4 in March.

Like in previous jobs releases, the discussion around data quality will be central. The payroll survey has continued to give contrasting indications to the household employment data, which has been much weaker since 4Q23. The household survey is thought to be missing a proper adjustment for rising immigration in the US, essentially underestimating the total workforce and showing inaccurately lower unemployment rates. On the other hand, payrolls may be doing some double counting as the number of Americans holding multiple jobs is at a 30-year high and the birth-death adjustment is generally considered to be pumping up the jobs figures. A convergence of any of those series towards the other would be a crucial development in the coming months.

All in all, our 210k call for payrolls means we do not expect today’s data to dent the bearish dollar momentum as markets may fully price in a cut in September and keep short-term USD rates capped. CFTC data shows net-speculative positioning on the dollar versus reported G10 currencies was at 24% of open interest, the highest since June 2019, so the room for a further long squeeze in the dollar remains substantial should US data soften over the coming weeks.

I am a financial strategist, pay attention to the actual research of risk control management strategy, do not talk about lofty theory, only pursue in practice, the most pragmatic and feasible trading strategy, so the general conclusion of the '0.01 each time under the single' war method, for your reference. Over the years, I have repeatedly talked about it, but the response is few, and perhaps even fewer are willing to practice in the real plate. But I have broken the Guinness Book of Records in the financial world through this trading rule!!!
Therefore, I basically do not consider the influence of the world situation and policies, and I hope to communicate with like-minded friends.

Hello, I have been working on buying on forex news for almost a year and I came to the conclusion that no progress can be made with this method. There was no incense

With 10 years of experience in the forex market, this method was not useful. There was a time when I was working on cot Data and it did not make all the progress

Using the robot is much more practical and logical, even if a little weak martingale is used, including martingale roulette

asghar1234 posted:
Hello, I have been working on buying on forex news for almost a year and I came to the conclusion that no progress can be made with this method. There was no incense

With 10 years of experience in the forex market, this method was not useful. There was a time when I was working on cot Data and it did not make all the progress

We are the first person to challenge the Guinness World Record in finance with a 100% success rate of 10,000 transactions in 100 days.
Record: From May 2, 2022 to September 15, 2022, there were a total of 99 trading days. The gold variety stopped at 47 trading days, with a total of 4068 transactions and blew up.

asghar1234 posted:
Using the robot is much more practical and logical, even if a little weak martingale is used, including martingale roulette

I did achieve a steady profit with my trading ideas, so automated tools and some ideas are trustworthy

UPUPEA posted:

asghar1234 posted:
Using the robot is much more practical and logical, even if a little weak martingale is used, including martingale roulette

I did achieve a steady profit with my trading ideas, so automated tools and some ideas are trustworthy

This is my most recent record,You can go three months without checking any news and be 100% profitable

stevewalker posted:
for last 2-3 months ( heavly) market only trading news. and there are enough news actually. even on weekend or at asian session.

robots/EA s R.I.P.

Big one move with actual news then stop/consolidation until next news.

walker

Can you suggest any efficient and profitable bot for news trading. Btw I trade with HFM is it good for news trading?

I coded may news trading EAs.

Idea 1)

open Buy stop and Sell stop 5 min before news are launched. When price moves after the news, one of these 2 trades is triggered

Idea 2)

after the news is released, wait 15 minutes and open a trade within new trend (if price went up after the news, open Buy trade)

Unfortunatelly none of these 2 bots were profitable because I was not able to set correct TP and SL. It should be set differently for NFP, inlation, unemployment rate decisions etc. For profitable trading you should analyze average move after that kind of news.

Petr_Nemec posted:
I coded may news trading EAs.

Idea 1)

open Buy stop and Sell stop 5 min before news are launched. When price moves after the news, one of these 2 trades is triggered

Idea 2)

after the news is released, wait 15 minutes and open a trade within new trend (if price went up after the news, open Buy trade)

Unfortunatelly none of these 2 bots were profitable because I was not able to set correct TP and SL. It should be set differently for NFP, inlation, unemployment rate decisions etc. For profitable trading you should analyze average move after that kind of news.

Expert advisors like this, don't need a TP and SL, you must use a Trailing and account must be with fixed spread.
Because it is not about what type of news is coming out, but depend how strong it is, some times there is almost no move on NonFarm, sometimes it get huge move.
So my recommendation is exclude fixed TP, and start use Trailing Stop.