Market Fundamental Context

I decided to keep a short report on what the market thinks. This is the most difficult thing for beginners to understand: what is important at the moment and how to dance from this starting point.

The main idea on the market right now is promotion within the framework of trade war deals between the US and other countries. Let me remind you that the US recently reached an agreement with Japan and some other Asian countries. Prior to that, the US reached an agreement with England, while the pause with China has been extended for a longer period. All in all, this leads to (risk on). Risk assets should perform well, especially indices. It is worth paying attention to trade negotiations between Europe and the US, as well as the independence of the Fed. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could lead to additional sanctions against Russia and its partners, such as China, which could destroy the agreement between China and the US.😁

Risk Appetite Up: S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new record highs; DOW surged 500+ pts, boosted by US-Japan trade deal optimism.Asia: Japan’s Nikkei rallies strongly, eyeing a record high. Broader regional sentiment is positive.Trade Outlook: Hopes rise for progress in other trade relationships as tariff fears ease, though uncertainties remain.

Top Performers: Yen leads, followed by Aussie (supported by RBA’s cautious tone and risk-on flows).Mid-pack: Euro, Sterling, and Kiwi hold steady.Laggards: USD, Loonie, and Swiss Franc.

ECB Decision Today: No rate change expected (Deposit Rate at 2.00%). Lagarde likely to stay vague amid global uncertainties. September seen as the pivotal meeting.Fed Watch: Trump to visit the Fed, first presidential visit in nearly 20 years. Raises questions on Fed independence. Succession speculation eased by Treasury’s comment on year-end timeline.

South Korea-US: Key 2+2 meeting postponed, making a pre-August 1 deal unlikely. Extension of talks seen as best-case.EU-China Summit: Held in Beijing to mark 50 years of ties. Little progress amid trade and Ukraine tensions. Summit shortened to one day, reflecting fragile relations.

Key Themes:

ECB Rate Cut Expectations Pushed BackEuro gained notably against Sterling and Swiss Franc, after ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed near-term policy easing. Markets now lean toward an October rate cut, rather than September, supported by resilient July services PMI data and unchanged June forecasts.USD Recovery Amid Fed Stability SignsThe Dollar rebounded slightly as institutional risk faded—President Trump walked back threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, softening rhetoric during a symbolic Fed visit. Although frustrations remain over Powell’s rate stance, market fears of leadership disruption have eased. President Trump and Fed Chair Powell toured the Federal Reserve’s construction site on Thursday. As expected, Trump handled the media spotlight with ease, while Powell appeared notably less comfortable. Trump later dismissed speculation he might remove Powell from his post, saying:

“To do that is a big move, and I don’t think that’s necessary.”

Trade Positivity from US-AustraliaAustralia’s reopening to US beef imports marks a rare upbeat note in global trade. The decision, backed by enhanced US biosecurity measures, was celebrated by Trump as a boost for American agriculture and US-Australia relations.

We are risk on / we need retracement to open longs on indices and so on... I think dollar rebound depends on when tariffs will end, and good economic data ( right now it is neutral but still weights on USD ) Also next FED moves will likely to be cuts, they cant hold rates forever so we wait, that can make dollar weaker

Now we have EUR and USD negotiations in focus overall...

FED rate cuts...

Choose best economic data divergences and open risk on trades will be my approach for now

This weekend, an agreement was signed between the US and Europe. This is a risk-on event, but we may see a situation where investors buy on rumors and sell on facts because the deal was expected. Despite the deal between the US and Europe, the euro fell because the terms caused a lot of discontent in Europe, and the USD was essentially the main victim of the tariff war. Now we see that the situation has stabilized. We see a strengthening of the dollar, which has further weakened the euro as a reserve currency. 

I would be cautious about opening long positions on the euro until this week's data confirms the bullish position.

As for the US dollar, I would wait until next week, as it is a very difficult week, and the FOMC is unlikely to announce anything. We should pay attention to the economic data, which will allow us to judge how soon interest rates will start to fall, and listen to the statements that will be made.

Personally, I am considering short positions on the pound sterling and the yen. I am also considering long positions on the US and Japanese indices. The NZD looks interesting, but as for the AUD, I would wait for the inflation results.In general, I recommend being cautious and not trading on Thursday and Friday, at most scalping on news surprises, or waiting until Friday and entering after the ISM service PMI and NFP.

Too many meetings and unknowns. At least for me it is risk...

In any case, you should understand that we are Risk On, with unemployment data, GDP, and central bank meetings in focus this week. We may get a chance for good longs on the dollar (BUT THIS IS ONLY A GUESS, ALTHOUGH THE ECONOMIC DATA IS NOT BAD).

Key Drivers of Market Moves1. Disappointment Over US–EU DealThe agreement, initially expected to signal renewed transatlantic unity, is being viewed more as a political concession from the EU than a true partnership.Tariff hike to 15% on most EU goods significantly undermines European export competitiveness, particularly for industries like autos and machinery.Energy and investment commitments made by the EU further tilt the scales toward US advantage.2. Broad Euro WeaknessEUR weakness isn’t limited to the Dollar — EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY also turned lower, suggesting widespread bearish sentiment on the common currency.The lack of internal EU cohesion and increasing political backlash (e.g., from France) amplifies uncertainty around future trade and economic policy coordination.3. Dollar ResurgenceUSD strength is underpinned by:

Widening rate differentials — markets are now dialing back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.Safe-haven demand, as the deal’s fallout creates regional instability in the EU.Renewed appeal of US assets amid economic and policy clarity.4. Commodities and Risk CurrenciesThe drop in AUD/USD highlights risk aversion and sensitivity to global trade dynamics.USD/CAD surge shows that commodity-linked currencies are diverging — with CAD benefiting from energy ties to the US, unlike the Aussie or Kiwi.

Aussie weakened broadly on Asian session after Australia’s Q2 CPI data cemented expectations for another RBA rate cut in August. However, the decline in Aussie lacks strong momentum so far. The softness in both headline and core inflation readings has effectively given the central bank the green light to proceed with its cautious easing cycle. But the absence of more significant economic weakness—especially in labor markets—means there’s little pressure to accelerate easing. Governor Michele Bullock’s recent dismissal of June’s uptick in unemployment supports the case for steady, quarterly rate reductions.

Elsewhere in the currency markets, Yen is leading gains as traders brace for Thursday’s BoJ meeting, with speculations of a hawkish tilt in tone or projections. Kiwi and Euro are also firm. Aussie is sitting at the bottom, followed by Sterling and Dollar. Loonie and Swiss Franc are largely in the middle of the pack.

Markets are facing a busy schedule ahead, with Eurozone GDP, US ADP employment, and US Q2 GDP advance release coming in quick succession. These will be followed by the BoC and FOMC rate decisions. The combination of macro data and central bank signals could drive sharp intraday moves across currencies and yields.

 On trade, US-China negotiations in Stockholm ended without breakthrough. Officials indicated it’s now up to US President Donald Trump to determine whether to extend the current tariff truce past the August 12 deadline. A failure to do so could see tariff rates snap back to triple-digit levels.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stressed that only Trump can finalize any extension. He hinted at another round of discussions in about 90 days and noted “good personal interaction” with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Talks reportedly made progress on technical matters like rare earth exports.

We had really strong USD data this week. Dollar remains the clear outperformer this week, holding firm despite mild retreat in Asian session. Stronger-than-expected US Q2 GDP data have prompted a significant paring back of expectations for a September Fed rate cut. Adding to the hawkish tilt, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more guarded tone at the post-meeting press conference. Markets are now keenly focused Friday’s non-farm payrolls for further clues. 

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump declared a “Full and Complete” trade agreement with South Korea. The deal caps blanket tariffs on Korean exports at 15%, down from the 25% initially threatened. Auto tariffs were also reduced from 25% to 15%. The timing of the agreement is critical, coming just ahead of the August 1 implementation window for new tariffs.

Yen’s sharp intraday reversal became the central focus in FX markets today, as traders reassessed BoJ’s latest policy guidance and economic projections. While initial positioning leaned toward hawkish interpretations, especially after last week’s US–Japan trade breakthrough, sentiment quickly pivoted as markets leaned into a more dovish read of BoJ’s inflation outlook.

On the one hand, BoJ did indicate confidence that underlying inflation would rise and stabilize around its 2% target within the projection horizon—a signal that supports gradual policy normalization. However, the near-term inflation picture was tempered. The central bank emphasized that the projected jump in core CPI to 2.7% this fiscal year was largely due to food prices, which do not reflect sustained demand-pull inflation. This cautious tone signaled no rush to raise rates again.

The reaction in FX was clear. Traders who had cut Yen shorts ahead of the meeting—in anticipation of a hawkish surprise—quickly reloaded those positions as the perceived risk faded.

Asian equities slipped slight today after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a long-anticipated executive order updating tariff rates following the August 1 trade truce deadline. But losses were relatively restrained as many of Asia’s key exporters avoided the harshest duties. While tariffs now top out at 41%, nations like Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan saw their rates reduced from previous threats. US equity futures were also little changed while the currency markets are largely stable. As the latest trade war escalation may already be well priced in, traders are now turning attention to upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data. Among major takeaways, Switzerland and South Africa face sharp tariffs of 39% and 30%, respectively. In contrast, Thailand and Malaysia see their rates trimmed to 19%, down from 36% and 24% respectively. Taiwan will face a 20% tariff, cut from the earlier 32% level. Importantly, China remains untouched under this directive, as both sides continue to negotiate toward a longer-term deal after the 90-day truce expires on August 12.

Dollar fell sharply Friday after a dismal July jobs report cast doubt on the resilience of the labor market. While the headline job growth missed expectations, the bigger blow came from a stunning downward revision to June’s figure. The data raised alarm bells that the U.S. labor market may be losing momentum far quicker than previously thought.

Adding to the pressure was a coordinated release by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, both of whom dissented at this week’s FOMC meeting in favor of a rate cut. Their remarks, published just before the payrolls release, emphasized the risks of delayed action in the face of labor market weakness. Waller argued for a proactive path, while Bowman called the July cut a necessary step toward neutralizing policy. While perhaps coincidental, the synchronized release raised eyebrows and intensified market concerns.

The combined impact of soft jobs data and dovish Fed messaging sent the Dollar lower across the board. Though the greenback still clings to the top spot among major currencies for the week, its lead is looking fragile. If selling persists into the weekend, Dollar could lose its weekly crown. Loonie holds second place, followed by Yen. On the other end, Euro remains the weakest, trailed by Kiwi and Swiss Franc. Sterling and Aussie are middle-of-the-pack. But with volatility likely to persist, rankings could shift before the week closes.

 Meanwhile, equity markets in Europe and US are trading lower, showing a sharper reaction than Asia to US President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariff regime. The latest executive order establishes “reciprocal” duties ranging from 10% to 41%, with a 40% penalty on goods transshipped to dodge tariffs. All unlisted countries face a blanket 10% duty. The new rules will take effect August 7.

Canada is among the hardest hit with a 35% tariff, although items covered under the USMCA are exempt. Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed disappointment and rejected Trump’s justification that tariffs were linked to drug trafficking. Switzerland faces a steep 39% duty despite what its government called “constructive” talks with Washington. The Swiss federal council expressed “regret” and signaled it would evaluate its options while continuing diplomatic engagement.

By contrast, Australia escaped with just a 10% rate. Trade Minister Don Farrell called the outcome “a vindication” of Australia’s calm diplomatic strategy. New Zealand wasn’t as fortunate—its rate was raised to 15%, prompting Trade Minister Todd McClay to warn that exporters may begin to feel meaningful strain at that level.

Overall i would like to use this as indices corrections to open longs, GbpUsd shorts + UsdCad longs could be great for next week, i think market is OKAY with tariffs, as expected so no big deal or risk off. Lets see how it goes. NZD still strong, GBP still weak fundamentally, AUD also have pressure from economic data. Maybe AUDNZD shorts and OIL longs but lets see... 

AUD shorts

NZD longs

USD longs 

GBP shorts

US Indices longs 

OIL longs

Markets Snap Summer Rally Amid Political, Economic CrosswindsNarrative Shift: From Optimism to UncertaintyEarly in the week, markets responded positively to:

US trade agreements with EU and South Korea.Strong GDP growth surprise.Hopes for tariff stabilization.But momentum quickly faded, as:

Tariff tensions with China reemerged.Labor data underwhelmed significantly.Political interference in institutions like the Fed and Labor Department raised red flags. Jobs Data Spark PanicJuly Payrolls: +73k (vs ~150k expected).Revisions: May & June cut by a combined 239k.Triggered a rapid reprice of Fed policy expectations:

September cut odds rose to 80% (from 40%).Now 46% chance of three rate cuts by December.Market takeaway: The economy may be slowing faster than the Fed or traders expected. The Fed may move into an “insurance cut” cycle. Institutional Integrity in QuestionFed Governor Kugler's sudden resignation adds drama to the Fed's succession landscape.Trump’s firing of a senior Labor Department statistician, Erika McEntarfer, following the weak jobs report, raised alarm over data politicization.Market concern: Political interference in economic data and central banking may erode confidence in U.S. institutions — a longer-term systemic risk. Currency MoversYen: Top performer, lifted by falling global yields and haven demand.Dollar: Held up early but stumbled as rate cut expectations surged.Euro: Strengthened as ECB tightening expectations faded — markets see rates at terminal levels.Aussie & Kiwi: Lagged amid rising risk aversion and Asia-Pacific vulnerability. Equities and YieldsS&P 500: Fell sharply Friday after technical breakdowns and loss of institutional confidence.10-year Treasury yield: Dropped meaningfully, reflecting a rush into bonds and mounting Fed easing bets.Weighted average U.S. tariff: Edged up to 18% — less severe than feared, but overshadowed by political concerns. Looking AheadCPI Data (Aug 12, Sep 11) and Jobs Report (Sep 5) will guide the Fed’s next move.September 17 FOMC now in focus, with strong odds of a rate cut.Watch for further signs of political intrusion into data and Fed decisions — a major wildcard. Bottom Line:Markets may have topped for the summer, with risk sentiment turning fragile. While rate cuts could cushion downside, confidence in institutional integrity is now a key variable. This is not just a macro story — it's a political one, and the stakes are rising.

Let me know if you'd like a version of this in chart form, bullet digest, or tailored for a newsletter.

I will be very carefull after this NFP ( it changed all my cards now ) i think USD is not so interesting now, indices need some confirmation to go long... OIL no more interested in ... I think GBP have potential to go lower... Maybe NZD can get nice support an EUR

Macro Snapshot: U.S. Services PMI – Sluggish Growth Amid Tariff HeadwindsHeadline Services PMI fell to 50.1 (from 50.8) → marginal expansion, barely above contraction.Broad-based weakness: 7 of 10 components declined.Imports: 45.9 (↓ 5.8) – now in contractionNew Export Orders: 47.9 (↓ 3.2) – also in contractionBusiness Activity: 52.6 (↓ 1.6)New Orders: 50.3 (↓ 1.0)Employment: 46.4 (↓ 0.8)Prices surged to 69.9 (↑ 2.4) → highest since early 2023, showing strong cost pressures.Tariffs heavily cited in business feedback (mentioned 9 times) → driving higher input costs, project delays, and altered sourcing strategies.

rump Interview Highlights (CNBC)Dismissed official data as politically biased; accused Fed and BLS of manipulationReiterated praise for Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh for future Fed rolesClaimed gas prices down to $2.40 (real avg: $3.17)Tariff policy intensifying:

Chips/Semiconductors → new tariffs “within a week”Pharma → tariffs could rise to 250%India → tariffs targeting Russian oil importsEU → threatened unless they “invest,” with promises of $600B in commitmentsClaimed lower energy prices would weaken Putin’s aggression

NZD rose after jobs data aligned with RBNZ rate cut expectationsAUD supported by record ASX gainsUSD slightly weaker across the board, but price action contained

No follow-through selling post-ISM Services dataLoonie and Swiss Franc underperforming

Key TakeawaysU.S. services growth is stagnating, with trade tariffs emerging as a dominant headwind.Cost pressures rising, while demand and hiring weaken.Market volatility and policy unpredictability (especially on trade/tariffs) creating risk-off sentiment.Investors remain cautious, watching for:

Sector-specific tariff escalation (semis, pharma)RBNZ decision (Aug 20)Fed's next moves (amid political pressure and growth worries)

Sterling surged across the board after the BoE delivered a widely expected rate cut to 4.00%, but with a much tighter vote split than markets anticipated. Four of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to keep rates unchanged, signaling persistent concerns about upside inflation risks. This hawkish undercurrent, paired with Governor Andrew Bailey’s cautious tone, undercut expectations for an accelerated easing cycle and helped Sterling lead currency gains on the day.

The hawkish composition of the vote suggests that a follow-up cut in September can be basically ruled out. Odds for a November reduction remain slightly in play, but confidence has diminished. Much will hinge on whether inflation indeed peaks at 4% in September as projected, and if it visibly starts to retreat in October. Until then, investors may treat incoming inflation and wage data as binary catalysts for the next policy move.

Bailey reiterated in the press conference that while the policy path remains downward, it is now clouded by uncertainty. “We do not cut too quickly or by too much,” he warned, highlighting energy and food prices as short-term distortions. His response to questions about the policy direction was telling: while still confident about the eventual path, the Governor acknowledged that the timing and scale of future moves are more uncertain than before.

After a week of volatility, the forex markets settled into a quieter rhythm during the Asian session on Friday. Swiss Franc stabilized somewhat, but remains the weakest performer this week after a heavy blow from Washington.

Switzerland’s diplomatic efforts fell short as the harsh 39% US tariff on Swiss imports officially kicked in. The import levy is among the highest imposed under Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” regime. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter lamented the impact on industry, calling it “an extraordinarily difficult situation.” Despite intense eleventh-hour negotiations, no compromise was reached, and Swiss officials now say a resolution will take more time.

Nevertheless, talks continue behind closed doors, with Swiss officials offering new concessions in hopes of tariff relief. “Talks are already underway based on the new offer,” Keller-Sutter said, adding that while the US is a key partner, “not at any price.” It’s also estimated that the new tariffs could wipe out US market access for many Swiss manufacturers, trimming GDP by 0.3% to 0.6% over the next year.

 On a more positive note, Japan appears to have secured corrective action from the US after a dispute over double tariffs. Tokyo’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said U.S. officials admitted to “a regrettable error” and would amend the presidential order. Duties already collected on Japanese goods since August 7 will be refunded, and the auto tariff will be formally lowered to 15%—as originally agreed in last month’s deal.

As the week nears its end, Sterling is still leading the pack, supported by BoE’s hawkish rate cut yesterday. With BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill scheduled to speak later today, markets may get a clearer sense of internal debate within the MPC—and whether a follow-up cut later this year is truly on the table.

Aussie and Kiwi follow behind in strength, while Swiss Franc is the weakest, trailed by Dollar and Yen. Euro and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack as markets await the next catalyst.

To be honest it was hard week for me ( got GbpNzd short but lost it ) but made some profit on EurGbp longs and some Eurchf and AudJpy shorts scalps hit BE... So BE week overall... 

Be carefull with CHF cause tarrifs harmed outlook on that currency ( this is why i made only scalps ) 

Next week we have Trump + Putin meeting, if we get some sort of relief on this conflict, we could see more risk on unless it was priced in ( i dont think so)

Next week will have a lot of data ( especially US CPI if it goes lower we surely get those cuts next meeting ) So be carefull and adapt...

AUD have CB meeting and employment

GBP can get supported if we get stronger GDP and other data because we had hawkish meeting before, if we get bad data it will continue short... 

See you next week

Markets began the week in tight ranges, with traders reluctant to take big positions. The August 12 deadline for a US–China trade deal is a major headline risk. For now, markets are betting heavily on an extension, with another 90-day truce seen as the most probable outcome.

Still, the threat of escalation lingers. US President Donald Trump has floated the idea of higher tariffs on Chinese goods linked to Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil — mirroring his 25% additional tariffs on India for similar ties. Such measures would raise the stakes in the talks, though most expect them to stay on hold this week.

Diplomacy may play a role in that calculation. A meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set for Friday in Alaska, where efforts to broker a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire will be in focus. Trump could hold off on targeting China until after gauging the outcome of that meeting.

 On the economic front, traders face a packed schedule: an RBA rate cut on Tuesday, US inflation readings, UK GDP, and jobs data. The overlap of geopolitical and macro drivers creates a backdrop where range trading could give way to sharp moves if headlines surprise.

Dollar came under renewed selling pressure in early US session following the release of July’s CPI report. Equity markets responded positively, with stock futures pushing higher as investors focused on the softer-than-expected headline reading, largely downplaying the firmer core figure. Market reaction suggests the report does little to disrupt expectations for the Fed to deliver its anticipated September rate cut.

Futures pricing in fed funds markets even firmed slightly for a follow-up move in October. However, the policy outlook beyond September remains highly uncertain, as the impact of recent US tariff increases is expected to start filtering into the data later in the year.

In the UK, labor market data offered little to bridge the divide on the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. Payrolled employment has been declining steadily since late 2024. At the same time, wage growth remains well above pre-pandemic norms.

 For BoE’s hawks, still-strong pay growth outweighs the risks of a weaker jobs market, while doves argue that continued payroll declines should take precedence. Complicating matters is the possibility that falling employment is not entirely demand-driven, but partly a response to rising labor costs. Either way, elevated wage growth remains a key contributor to domestic price pressures.

For Sterling, the figures were mildly supportive, as wage resilience keeps the case for a slower easing cycle alive. Market attention now turns to Thursday’s UK GDP release, which could add some decisive information to the BoE policy debate if growth data surprises in either direction.

Elsewhere, Aussie extended losses during the European session after RBA’s expected 25bps rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that “the cash rate might need to be a bit lower” to ensure low inflation and steady employment but emphasized the high degree of uncertainty and reiterated the Bank’s data-dependent approach. RBA appears in no hurry to cut again before the Q3 CPI release in late October, keeping November as the most likely timing for another move.

The interplay between Nikkei and Yen remains crucial. A softer yen improves exporters’ competitiveness, lifting equities. At the same time, robust equity performance can in turn weigh on the currency as investors channel funds into riskier assets. The feedback loop is evident again today, with Yen sliding broadly.

In the currency markets, Yen leads losses, followed by Dollar and Euro. On the flip side, Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie are outperforming, reflecting demand for higher-beta plays in a risk-on environment. Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.

With the economic calendar light today, some attention is turning to geopolitics. US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders will be closely followed. The talks come after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, which Trump called “productive” despite yielding no breakthrough.

 Before European leaders join the broader conversation, Trump and Zelenskiy are due to meet one-on-one. European capitals are keen to help Zelenskiy avoid another public confrontation like the one in February, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance criticized him in the Oval Office.

To bolster Zelenskiy’s position, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened allies on Sunday. Their aim is to secure stronger security guarantees for Ukraine, ideally with the US playing a central role.

Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar is heavy later this week. Markets will parse Canada CPI on Tuesday, RBNZ, UK CPI, and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, global PMIs on Thursday, and Japan CPI on Friday. All of this culminates with the Jackson Hole Symposium from Thursday to Saturday, where Fed officials’ comments will set the tone for September policy expectations.

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index improved slightly in July, rising from 47.6 to 48.9. But the sector remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Also, the latest reading is still well below the long-run survey average of 52.9.

Details showed mixed conditions. Activity/Sales stayed in contraction at 47.5, and New Orders stalled at 50.0. On the positive side, Inventories expanded for the second month at 51.4. Employment component slid to 47.1, extending its losing streak to 20 months.