Performance variations with market mood (manual trading)
Aug 30, 2011 at 16:00
853 zobrazení
4 Replies
Členem od Jun 12, 2011
51 příspěvků
Aug 30, 2011 at 16:00
Hi all,
This question is more for those that trade manually. I trade only EURUSD at the moment and basically im a day trader.
I have a feeling that i do better when the market is in the range mode as it has been for several weeks (eurusd) .
It has happened with me before that when the market swithces to trend mode i tend to make more mistakes and my performance is poor compared with when it is in range mode. I trade basically PA, candlesticks, S/R and no other indicators besides 2 MA with minor importance to the decisions. I think my performance lowers because as i use a lot S/R, when the market is in trend mode it is not so easy to locate S/R (at least for me). Im not sure why this happens though.
I wonder if anyone else has had the same kind of experience.
This question is more for those that trade manually. I trade only EURUSD at the moment and basically im a day trader.
I have a feeling that i do better when the market is in the range mode as it has been for several weeks (eurusd) .
It has happened with me before that when the market swithces to trend mode i tend to make more mistakes and my performance is poor compared with when it is in range mode. I trade basically PA, candlesticks, S/R and no other indicators besides 2 MA with minor importance to the decisions. I think my performance lowers because as i use a lot S/R, when the market is in trend mode it is not so easy to locate S/R (at least for me). Im not sure why this happens though.
I wonder if anyone else has had the same kind of experience.
Členem od Jan 14, 2010
556 příspěvků
Aug 31, 2011 at 14:42
Yeah, I had the same experience.
As always, some systems work better with certain market criteria. Since you're trading support and resistance, it's very easy to think the price is going to turn when in a trend - you're always thinking it is going to happen in the next broken support/resistance but it never happens. Psychologically, it's hard to believe the trend is going to continue as you think to yourself that everyone already got it, there's no way it's gone go further.
A good solution I found is to always look at larger time frames to get the bigger picture. Also, if the market is trending and you support/resistance levels fail you several times in a row, don't hurry to take the next trade.
As always, some systems work better with certain market criteria. Since you're trading support and resistance, it's very easy to think the price is going to turn when in a trend - you're always thinking it is going to happen in the next broken support/resistance but it never happens. Psychologically, it's hard to believe the trend is going to continue as you think to yourself that everyone already got it, there's no way it's gone go further.
A good solution I found is to always look at larger time frames to get the bigger picture. Also, if the market is trending and you support/resistance levels fail you several times in a row, don't hurry to take the next trade.
forex_trader_43716
Členem od Aug 06, 2011
345 příspěvků
Sep 16, 2011 at 21:14
All the time!
Although far from perfect, employ the ADX (Average Directional Movement) index to help identify ranging or trending price action. If ADX more than 25, market is trending; if below 25, market is ranging. Check multi timeframes as suggested by 007 (I do this constantly prior to market entry).
Although far from perfect, employ the ADX (Average Directional Movement) index to help identify ranging or trending price action. If ADX more than 25, market is trending; if below 25, market is ranging. Check multi timeframes as suggested by 007 (I do this constantly prior to market entry).
Členem od Jul 30, 2011
71 příspěvků
Sep 17, 2011 at 10:00
Yep, multiple timeframes works very well. I like applying Ichimoku as well, when they agree over various timeframes it increases confidence. Ranging is of course always easier, you never know when a breakout appears and if your stoploss isn't close enough your losses could outrun your profits easily, psychologically I always feel like extending the stoploss, but that usually just ends up in more loss ;P Good reason to automate at least parts of your trading if you're like me and become too influenced by the psychological factors.
Riding waves always leads to a fall
Členem od Aug 11, 2011
21 příspěvků
Sep 21, 2011 at 06:29
I simply think that in the range it is relatively safe to average down; range will always (98%) pull combined trades into the profit. So, in other words, working with S/R is somewhat similar to 'catching knives' - working the peaks. If selected trading time frame and the size of your deposit can withstand the DD then you will be OK. And, I think that what is happening with a lot of traders.
But that is the case only for ranging markets. Averaging down during the trend is a suicide. Quick and full of pain.
I really do not know your trading technique, in particular if you do average down or not. I know that I do, to the certain point.
I also know that when you get to the point in your training that you finally see the trend in process or while it is in the earlier stages (analysis of multiple time frame is certainly help) then trading into the trend becomes your only way to trade.
I am in training for 2 years now and I still can not see the trend in real time; only in history.
I believe my problem is in our (my) psyche - as we do what we've been trained to do - follow the crowd and think in levels. A lot of times when I do see the trend in real time, I do not join the party, because I think it is too late and most of wave C is gone and done. Instead I open the opposite trade and then when I see the first signs of trend dying I average down. Then the trend that I saw is going into correction and close my averaged positions in profit. But that is a disaster waiting to happen, because what I really i trying to do is to catch a falling knife.
IMHO: The real profit can be made ONLY if trader opens his/her positions into the trend. Everything else is just lucky gambling. The real key for success is to identify the trend when it is going into wave C. Get at least 50% of wave C and the world will be yours.😄
But that is the case only for ranging markets. Averaging down during the trend is a suicide. Quick and full of pain.
I really do not know your trading technique, in particular if you do average down or not. I know that I do, to the certain point.
I also know that when you get to the point in your training that you finally see the trend in process or while it is in the earlier stages (analysis of multiple time frame is certainly help) then trading into the trend becomes your only way to trade.
I am in training for 2 years now and I still can not see the trend in real time; only in history.
I believe my problem is in our (my) psyche - as we do what we've been trained to do - follow the crowd and think in levels. A lot of times when I do see the trend in real time, I do not join the party, because I think it is too late and most of wave C is gone and done. Instead I open the opposite trade and then when I see the first signs of trend dying I average down. Then the trend that I saw is going into correction and close my averaged positions in profit. But that is a disaster waiting to happen, because what I really i trying to do is to catch a falling knife.
IMHO: The real profit can be made ONLY if trader opens his/her positions into the trend. Everything else is just lucky gambling. The real key for success is to identify the trend when it is going into wave C. Get at least 50% of wave C and the world will be yours.😄
You see the shit on the street, you do not step into it.
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