Profit / loss analysis and trading talks

Gert12 posted:

Raven1209 posted:

Michel_Dubois posted:
Well I have other question. Is there any point in doing a trade analysis if you trade with a scalping robot? I just wondering about my trade.

In any case, you can evaluate the overall picture of trading efficiency.

Can you give advice on how to analyze a large number of transactions? For example scalping strategy?
Where there is one trade I already roughly understand. But when are there many of them? Which method will be more effective?

For high-volume strategies like scalping, consider using automated tools like MT. This can make it easier to evaluate performance without getting lost in the details.

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

Oh profit and loss are always nearby, the only question is how you manage the risks. lol.

Hi. How long do you suppose the drawdown on Bitcoin will last?

lexusxxx posted:
Hi. How long do you suppose the drawdown on Bitcoin will last?

Oh is it a drawdown? The market is growing. lol.

If we don't get a new high on btc by the end of may then I think that we will get a protracted drawdown on btc, perhaps lasting months (or years)

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

because market behavior is changing.

lexusxxx posted:
Hi. How long do you suppose the drawdown on Bitcoin will last?

Oh do you want to sell Bitcoin? If not, then you can buy at any time; in any case, the market will beat your price sooner or later. lol.

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

There are always losses and reasons for related errors may be different. I created this thread in order to share mistakes, analyze and determine errors for further corrections.

lexusxxx posted:
Hi. How long do you suppose the drawdown on Bitcoin will last?

Hi
Just published a trading talks about bitcoin on my website.

The current Bitcoin fluctuations is part of a correction that has a horizontal channel between the key levels of 60K and 73K. At the same time, on the daily chart it is clear that the level of 60k is strengthened by the influence of EMA 100, but with some divergence and the prospect of MACD entering the zone of negative values.
The weekly chart shows pure convergence and a preliminary increase in the probability of crossing the signal line as a sell signal. Thus, if the 60k level is broken below, then I will expect a likely further decline to 50k, where the daily EMA 200 line has been formed and also the key support of 51k, which will prevent the decline.
But in the short term, I see that growth is also possible, at least within the current horizontal channel with the initial marker level at 65k. Moreover, the four-hour MACD shows initial signal to buy. In case of 65k level breaking through the level of previously maximum point 73k may be a significant resistance for further growth of BTC. And further 73k level passing will open up new prospects for Bitcoin and make it possible to realize the potential for maximum historical values, but I suppose that for now it is quite moderate (75-80k).
I see prospects for further growth within the horizontal channel, but I suggest keeping an eye on the marker and key levels of 60k and 73k, a breakthrough of which will mean a unidirectional movement.

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:
@MarcellusLux Could you tell more about post-trade analysis, how do you do it?

The is broad question for one post, so I will answer in general. If you want to know something specific, please post your questions.
After each trading session, I do a comprehensive analysis of closed trades. And according to a number of criteria, I decide what changes to make in the trading plan or trading system. That is, the result and conclusion after analysis can influence subsequent trades. The analysis that I am publishing is the initial stage: market analysis and preliminary assessment of effectiveness.

What criteria do you pay attention to?

I start with trading analysis according to the market state, this is what is published. Then I evaluate the trading effectiveness (also sometimes published). Now that I know what works well and what doesn't live up to expectations, I can adjust my strategy and trading plan.
At the next stage, I compare the previously obtained data and analysis with the current one and try to find regularities and patterns of mistakes and successful solutions.
After the market related analysis I move on to risk management and analyze information about risks during trading, whether my trades were safe and defended from losses enough. The trading system can then be adjusted again to reflect changes in risk management.
The final stage is the formation of a psychological portrait of the trading session, my behavior and reactions to events.

Thanks for the clarification! Could you specify which psychological factors, in your opinion, most affect trading outcomes?

Trading process can be influenced by the psychological state and each trader may have different reasons for destabilization. But basically I would note the following factors:
- fatigue from trading. Any trader knows that trading can be exhausting, which leads to the reducing of the mental resources.
- hesitation. It may be the result of temper or a feeling of insecurity acquired during trading after the past losses.
- over self-confidence. The situation is similar to hesitation but can be achieved through several, often random, profits.
- greed and anger. This is one of the most common problems for beginners, but it is also the simplest in my opinion, since it disappears with experience.

Great thanks for your answer. Fatigue. Can you share any tips on how to manage or mitigate trading fatigue effectively?

I guess it's mostly individual. In order not to get tired and stay active longer during trading, I would advise you to pay attention to the factors that worry you and try to minimize them. Also, it depends on the trading process. If you trade clearly according to a plan and trading strategy, then your body does not waste energy on improvisations during trading, which will inevitably lead to losses.
It is also worth remembering that we are all consciousness inside the physical body, so I always advise making the trading process as comfortable as possible. Don’t spare money on a quality workplace and equipment that you will be comfortable working with. Associate your trading with positive memories for your body and it will help you.
Try not to overwork and make it a rule not to trade more than hours you are comfortable with, otherwise trading when tired will most likely be unprofitable, which will lead to even greater psychological issues.

Raven1209 posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:
@MarcellusLux Could you tell more about post-trade analysis, how do you do it?

The is broad question for one post, so I will answer in general. If you want to know something specific, please post your questions.
After each trading session, I do a comprehensive analysis of closed trades. And according to a number of criteria, I decide what changes to make in the trading plan or trading system. That is, the result and conclusion after analysis can influence subsequent trades. The analysis that I am publishing is the initial stage: market analysis and preliminary assessment of effectiveness.

What criteria do you pay attention to?

I start with trading analysis according to the market state, this is what is published. Then I evaluate the trading effectiveness (also sometimes published). Now that I know what works well and what doesn't live up to expectations, I can adjust my strategy and trading plan.
At the next stage, I compare the previously obtained data and analysis with the current one and try to find regularities and patterns of mistakes and successful solutions.
After the market related analysis I move on to risk management and analyze information about risks during trading, whether my trades were safe and defended from losses enough. The trading system can then be adjusted again to reflect changes in risk management.
The final stage is the formation of a psychological portrait of the trading session, my behavior and reactions to events.

Thanks for the clarification! Could you specify which psychological factors, in your opinion, most affect trading outcomes?

Trading process can be influenced by the psychological state and each trader may have different reasons for destabilization. But basically I would note the following factors:
- fatigue from trading. Any trader knows that trading can be exhausting, which leads to the reducing of the mental resources.
- hesitation. It may be the result of temper or a feeling of insecurity acquired during trading after the past losses.
- over self-confidence. The situation is similar to hesitation but can be achieved through several, often random, profits.
- greed and anger. This is one of the most common problems for beginners, but it is also the simplest in my opinion, since it disappears with experience.

Great thanks for your answer. Fatigue. Can you share any tips on how to manage or mitigate trading fatigue effectively?

On my experience the better way is to set strict trading hours and stick to them. Overtrading is often a fatigue trap. Take regular breaks and give yourself time to recharge.

Great thanks for your tips. Does anyone have other effective methods?

MarcellusLux posted:

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

There are always losses and reasons for related errors may be different. I created this thread in order to share mistakes, analyze and determine errors for further corrections.

But won't it happen at some point that you will correct all possible mistakes???

WhiteWitcher posted:

lexusxxx posted:
Hi. How long do you suppose the drawdown on Bitcoin will last?

Oh do you want to sell Bitcoin? If not, then you can buy at any time; in any case, the market will beat your price sooner or later. lol.

I don't trade multi-year trades, I prefer a shorter time frame.

MarcellusLux posted:
EUR/JPY
The second trade worth discussing is EUR/JPY, the closure of which brought a profit of 153.5 points. The opening of the trade was in accordance with the downward trend after a slight corrective growth. I saw the probability of the narrowing channel formation, but decided not to wait for the market to determine, since the opening of the correction would still be downward. The further fall confirmation was the intersection of the EMA levels 100 and 200 on the four-hour chart, as well as the fairly confident MACD transition to the negative values zone and the signal line position. The 30-minute chart shows a clear touch of the EMA 100 line, the preliminary resistance at 161.654, while the EMA 200 was the key marker level for further growth. I carefully monitored these levels and if they were broken, I would close the trade as likely unprofitable. The trade was closed after reaching the level of 160.330 and although I saw a high probability of a further fall, there was also the danger of a rollback after a rapid fall and a possible long-term correction, so the decision was made to take profit and exit the market.

Thank you, man, that was great. I want more from you. Please post this kind of aspects

Cap_Marshal posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

There are always losses and reasons for related errors may be different. I created this thread in order to share mistakes, analyze and determine errors for further corrections.

But won't it happen at some point that you will correct all possible mistakes???

Haha. I have never seen anyone who could demonstrate a 100% trading system, regardless of experience and skills.

Cap_Marshal posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

There are always losses and reasons for related errors may be different. I created this thread in order to share mistakes, analyze and determine errors for further corrections.

But won't it happen at some point that you will correct all possible mistakes???

Some aspects of trading analysis are mutually exclusive and their use depends on market conditions. If I made a mistake in assessing this condition, then this leads to losses.

Moreover, there is no perfect way to analyze the market. There is always the possibility of news releases, for example, that act as game changers on the market. In such situations, my task is to most profitably limit and control the possible risk.

Of course, with each new analysis I try to become better and grow, but after many years of practice, I realized that this sword can be sharpened endlessly.

MarcellusLux posted:

Cap_Marshal posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Cap_Marshal posted:
If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

There are always losses and reasons for related errors may be different. I created this thread in order to share mistakes, analyze and determine errors for further corrections.

But won't it happen at some point that you will correct all possible mistakes???

Some aspects of trading analysis are mutually exclusive and their use depends on market conditions. If I made a mistake in assessing this condition, then this leads to losses.

yes, it definitely gonna loss