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UK ELECTIONS 2017
Členem od Sep 12, 2016
59 příspěvků
Jun 08, 2017 at 06:42
Členem od Sep 12, 2016
59 příspěvků
Hello all respected traders and visitors of this topic.
I think everyone wonder about the results of the upcoming UK elections, who wins and what would be the market reaction. I want to show you one method that was tested by me on several previous elections to predict the outcome. It is as simple as it may be. I analysed google trends statistics to check on the results tagged by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. As you can see on the image, Theresa May has slightly more public interest, than Jeremy Corbyn.
So the question of the day is what does this mean for the market in general, and, particularly, for us?
To my mind this data shows us very well the balance of force in UK parliament wont change so all that play was just sucking money from Britain's pocket.
As a result, GBP, after a very high volatility, shooting down buy stops, should return to the pre-election mid April levels.
In case you opinion is different, please feel free to express it.
P.S.: All pm's would be answered after this weekend.
Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
Členem od Apr 18, 2017
45 příspěvků
Jun 08, 2017 at 10:34
Členem od Apr 18, 2017
45 příspěvků
Thanks a lot for your contrition! I am agreeing with your opinion, same strategy I’m setting here for this election session! Let’s see what market offers us!
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
Jun 08, 2017 at 13:48
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.
Členem od Dec 16, 2011
297 příspěvků
Jun 09, 2017 at 08:43
Členem od Dec 16, 2011
297 příspěvků
ha ha ha google trends statistics - please , its got nothing to do with forex ...waist of time
your results r set for 5 years . change it to 7 days
your results r set for 5 years . change it to 7 days
Členem od Sep 12, 2016
59 příspěvků
Jun 09, 2017 at 08:53
Členem od Sep 12, 2016
59 příspěvků
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.
'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.
Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
Jun 09, 2017 at 11:22
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
maxulr posted:BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.
'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.
Opening the positions prior event is more or less close to gambling. During the event may depend from market conditions, but still due to the high volatility and low liquidity the stops could be triggered quickly. After the event is much better, after the sharp market reaction :).
To be honest, I was missed last night UK election market party - being on another event :)
Členem od Feb 03, 2017
29 příspěvků
Jun 11, 2017 at 06:36
Členem od Feb 03, 2017
29 příspěvků
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Don't panic over drawdown, instead manage it !!
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
Jun 11, 2017 at 13:20
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
Jun 11, 2017 at 16:24
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
It will be a disaster if May forms any party with DUP in N.Ireland ,a through back to the dark ages, 300,000 have signed a petition against any such move in the first 12 hours.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Členem od Jan 18, 2017
1 příspěvků
Jun 12, 2017 at 06:03
Členem od Jan 18, 2017
1 příspěvků
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??
Členem od Apr 18, 2017
718 příspěvků
Jun 27, 2017 at 10:56
Členem od Apr 18, 2017
718 příspěvků
ANSHU870 posted:
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??
You already got your answer! Actually, these types of news events are too much critical! Only good skilled Forex traders are able to understand the actual movements of market! By the way, right now I am with EUR!
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
Jun 27, 2017 at 12:31
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
There was a bullish hint earlier this morning at London open.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Členem od Jun 29, 2017
11 příspěvků
Jun 29, 2017 at 13:48
Členem od Jun 29, 2017
11 příspěvků
mlawson71 posted:Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
Jun 29, 2017 at 14:08
Členem od Feb 12, 2016
522 příspěvků
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
Jul 01, 2017 at 11:56
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
ZacThePac posted:mlawson71 posted:Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going
Those are my thoughts exactly too. I don't know how am I going to trade the GBP, I might even avoid it altogether. It depends.
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
Jul 01, 2017 at 13:45
Členem od Sep 12, 2015
1948 příspěvků
BaldoN posted:
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.
We've never had a brexit before though, prices can be calculated for other events because they've happened before, two other things effecting the UK, inflation and wage growth .
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Členem od May 05, 2017
15 příspěvků
Jul 04, 2017 at 10:07
Členem od May 05, 2017
15 příspěvků
Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
Jul 11, 2017 at 09:36
Členem od Dec 11, 2015
1487 příspěvků
MyNewBank posted:
Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years
I agree. I think the question is how long that will last before the UK begins to recuperate.
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