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Trading Journal
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
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May 02, 2018 at 05:58
The dollar had its biggest advance in more than a week.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 03, 2018 at 06:38
Federal Reserve relaxed toward inflation rising above 2 percent signaling no intention to accelerate a gradual tightening of monetary policy.
FED should raise benchmark rates in June.
FED should raise benchmark rates in June.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 04, 2018 at 05:50
In terms of economic indicators, the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits stood at 211,000, compared to 225 000 and then 209 000 in the previous week. The ISM index for the services sector stood at 56.80 compared to the projected 58.00 and the trade deficit reached 49 000 M.USD, below the expected 50 000 M.USD. Factory orders increased 1.60% in March (vs. 1.40% estimated), while orders for durable goods grew 2.60% in the same month.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 06, 2018 at 06:30
Wall Street was trading higher as investors reacted to the employment report, highlighting Apple's shares favoring stock indexes. The government reported that during April, the US economy created 164,000 jobs, down from 192,000 expected by economists. On the other hand, the increase in average hourly wages also fell short of expectations (0.15% vs. 0.20%). We must remember the importance of this last indicator, since in many economic cycles are the precursors of inflation. The US unemployment rate fell from 4.10% to 3.90% in April, down from 4%. In the business field, Apple rose 3.42%, after investor Warren Buffett revealed that during the first quarter acquired 75 million shares.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 08, 2018 at 06:38
European markets closed mostly, rising, favored by the weakness of the Euro. The weakness of the European currency has led it to trade at 1.19 against the Dollar, a level not recorded since December 2017. To justify the weakness of the common currency, there is the significant difference between US and German yields and the recent slowdown in the European Economy. In March, orders to industry decreased by 0.90% (on a monthly basis), compared to forecasts of 0.50%. In the first quarter, the German economy was negatively conditioned by factors such as bad weather and a series of strikes that marked that period. During the day, the mining and oil sectors stood out. Crude oil prices gained more than 1% as a result of retracement of the Dollar and the indications that President Trump would be inclined to impose sanctions again not only on Iran but on Venezuela.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 08, 2018 at 15:31
Technical traders operate on different time scales, producing detectable signals in price time series, subsequently memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics through a specific figure called supports and resistances. In fact prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 10, 2018 at 12:21
This recent positive trend US indices is explained by the strong appreciation of the oil sector, as a result of President Trump’s decision to abandon the agreement with Iran.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 10, 2018 at 21:46
European markets closed slightly higher. The telecommunications sector presented an underperformance, explained by news and results. BT reported quarterly results lower than expected and announced its intention to reduce 13,000 jobs. Its shares fell 7.15%. In the banking sector, Royal Bank of Scotland advanced 3.88%, after agreeing to pay a fine of 4900 M.USD, an amount lower than expected, to close an issue related to the sale of financial products linked to high risk mortgage.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 11, 2018 at 11:10
Recently, the evolution of yields has also been influenced by a new variable: the political situation in Italy. Debt markets, after several weeks focused on other issues, have already begun to react. Italian 10-year yields reached 1.94% (the highest of the last 7 weeks) and the differential between Italian interest rates and their German counterparts (the best indicator for measuring the country’s political risk) widened from 1.14% up to 1.37% in just two weeks. FTSEMIB, the Milan stock exchange index, has not yet reflected this perceived risk of the bond market. Stock market investors have focused more on the positive effects than rising yields will have on bank results. The increase in yields may be due to the prospects of higher economic growth (which is positive in the bottom) but may also be due to increased risk aversion. In the current situation, it is this last hypothesis that explains better the movement of Italian yields.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 14, 2018 at 18:47
European markets closed lower, with most sectors also in negative territory. Among the worst performers were the financial services and telecommunications companies. The price of oil maintained the upward behavior that characterized it last week, so stocks of major oil majors closed today’s session higher.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 15, 2018 at 19:58
European markets ended today's session in different directions, with investors attentive to political and economic issues. The behavior of the foreign exchange market also influenced the course of the market, and the Euro registered a devaluation against the US Dollar. In sectoral terms, oil companies were among the best performers (still reflecting the recent rise in the price of oil), while the telecommunications sector lost more than 1%. For the banking sector, Commerzbank rose 3.79%, after having reported a quarterly profit of 250 M. €, surpassing the forecasts of 178 M. €. This differential was achieved through lower provisions and a tax credit. Banking income declined 3.70% to 2300 M. €, slightly higher than the forecast of 2270 M. €. In a statement, the bank mentioned the conditions caused by the slowdown of the German economy in the first quarter and by the growing tensions between the US and China. Still in Frankfurt, but as an opposite reaction (-5.82%), ThyssenKrupp reported an EBIT of 500 M. €, substantially in line with forecasts. Profits from steel production, the company's largest activity, doubled over the same period last year. In terms of economic indicators, the GDP of the Euro Zone for the first quarter showed an annual growth of 2.50%, in line with expectations.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 16, 2018 at 12:01
The behavior of the bond and exchange markets will continue to dictate the course of the European stock exchanges. Yesterday, the strong rise in US yields generated a strong increase in world yields. This increase in interest rates could be strengthened by the increase in geopolitical risk. The intensification of geopolitical tensions has two focuses: the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula. In the Middle East, the situation in the Gaza Strip adds yet another focus of potential conflict in the region. The main difference with similar situations is that Iran has bases in Syria where it can reach Israel and also suffer the attacks of this country. As already mentioned, Syria is a country where several powers intervene with objectives often antagonistic. North Korea's cancellation of talks (threatening the meeting with President Trump in June) could push back steps in the past month. It is not yet known whether this North Korean decision (fomented by joint US-South Korean military maneuvers) is a negotiating strategy or a real retreat in the pacification process of the peninsula.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 18, 2018 at 00:10
European stock markets ended higher, with utilities among the best performers. French Suez reported results that were well received by investors, with revenues surpassing forecasts. Its shares gained 3.60%. Also the stocks of retailers stood out positively, favored by the behavior of the online retailer Ocado. However, the rise in the price of oil benefited the respective sector. Total rose more than 1%. According to CNBC, the French oil company is considering abandoning its activity in Iran. In the telecommunications sector, the Dutch company Altice advanced 12%, with the news that SFR, its French division, showed signs of recovery in the first three months of the year.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 18, 2018 at 10:20
In the pre-opening, the European indices rehearsed in different directions, in a context of intensification of the geopolitical tensions, after the declarations of the North American President. The debt market will continue to be monitored after the 10-year U.S. treasury yield have peaked at seven-year highs. On the other hand, the rise in the price of oil (favored by strong demand and continued cuts in production by OPEC) is expected to continue to influence its sector and the market as a whole.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 21, 2018 at 11:48
In the pre-opening, the European indices continued to rise, reflecting the positive developments in trade relations between the US and China. However, the activity of European markets will be less than usual due to the celebration of Pentecost Day in mostly Protestant countries like Germany and Switzerland. Even so, an initial positive reaction is likely from the sectors most prone to exports (especially to China) such as the automobile, mining, industrial, and others. After this reaction, European investors will focus on two interrelated themes: sovereign yields and the evolution of the political situation in Italy.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 22, 2018 at 16:23
Recent developments in the face of trade tensions between the US and China have cheered the European stock markets in this first session of the week.
The stock market activity was less intense as the Frankfurt and Swiss stock exchanges were closed yesterday for the celebration of Pentecost Day.
The stock market activity was less intense as the Frankfurt and Swiss stock exchanges were closed yesterday for the celebration of Pentecost Day.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 23, 2018 at 12:04
Recent declines in the Euro have led the common currency to the most extreme oversold levels since November 2016. Yesterday the Euro showed some signs of stabilization, which may be the prelude to a short-term technical recovery.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 24, 2018 at 23:58
BMW and Daimler fell more than 2%. On the contrary, the telecommunications companies registered gains. Deutsche Telekom said it expects average annual revenue growth of 1% to 2% by 2021.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 26, 2018 at 17:13
Yesterday European markets ended slightly lower. The uncertainty associated with the political scenario in Italy continued to influence investor sentiment and had repercussions on the stock and debt markets. Banks' stocks were the most penalized. In the foreign exchange market, the Euro maintained its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, thus moving towards the 6th consecutive week of falls.
Next Monday, American markets will be closed, celebrating the Memorial Day.
Next Monday, American markets will be closed, celebrating the Memorial Day.
Členem od Jan 24, 2018
207 příspěvků
May 29, 2018 at 17:15
The political situation in Italy and Spain created a scenario of fear and risk aversion that was seen today in the financial markets. In Italy, Carlo Cottarelli, nominated by the President of the Republic, will try to form a government that is likely to be presented tomorrow to the President and will have to submit to the vote of the Parliament and the Senate. Despite the charisma it brings, it is unlikely that Cottarelli’s team will win the vote of the two legislative chambers, both dominated by the 5 Stelle Movement and Lega Nord. On the other hand, in Spain Parliament debates on Thursday and Friday the motion of censure presented by the Socialists, after the sentence of the National Audience, which condemned the Popular Party (led by Rajoy) for one of the most corrupt cases in recent years in Spain.
