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TFX 250k (Od BrianHarris96 )

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BrianHarris96
Sep 17 2021 at 10:26
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GBP: Economic overheating or stagflation?
The GBP has recovered some ground vs the EUR and held its ground vs the
USD on the back of better-than-expected UK labour market data as well as
further acceleration of UK inflation. Because of the data, the markets have
recently brought forward their BoE rate hike expectations and given the GBP rate
advantage a boost vs the USD and the EUR. We remain less constructive in our
GBP outlook partly because we question the durability of the recent improvement
of employment conditions in the view of the withdrawal of government support for
the labour market. Moreover, the recent tax hikes and employment benefit cuts
could further encourage UK households to save rather than spend the excess
savings that they have amassed during the pandemic. We also think that the
recent increase in inflation reflects labour market shortage and supply chain
disruptions due to the pandemic and Brexit and should not be seen as evidence
that the economy is overheating. On the day, the August retail sales could point
to some cautious recovery in domestic demand following its surprising weakness
in July. That being said, the outlook for domestic demand may not improve
meaningfully further especially if accelerating cost-push inflation starts eroding
households’ real incomes while the withdrawal of government support triggers a
rise in unemployment. Looming stagflation risks can undermine the UK’s
economic recovery and even force the BoE to downgrade its outlook. The GBP
could struggle to extend its recent gains as a result.
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