correlation GDP/ Currency
Mar 06, 2017 at 07:34
Vistas 260
1 Replies
Mar 06, 2017 at 07:34
HI guys,
two questions here. I have been studying a course on macro fundamentals, which at the bedrock implies that inflationary conditions are bad for currencies, while deflationary conditions are good. I understand the argument, but actually I dont really see a strong correlation between GDP growth and currency performance. Should they not be quite strongly inversely correlated?
Secondly, a lot of the analysis takes the form of using statistical distributions to look for percentage changes outside of the norm. I just wonder how much of this is theory, and is it really an effective and efficient means to determine price movement? The course quoted above suggests 80% fundamental analysis vs. 20% technical. How would experienced traders view this?
thanks,
Tom
two questions here. I have been studying a course on macro fundamentals, which at the bedrock implies that inflationary conditions are bad for currencies, while deflationary conditions are good. I understand the argument, but actually I dont really see a strong correlation between GDP growth and currency performance. Should they not be quite strongly inversely correlated?
Secondly, a lot of the analysis takes the form of using statistical distributions to look for percentage changes outside of the norm. I just wonder how much of this is theory, and is it really an effective and efficient means to determine price movement? The course quoted above suggests 80% fundamental analysis vs. 20% technical. How would experienced traders view this?
thanks,
Tom
Mar 06, 2017 at 07:37
actually, my main point is, the majority of the analysis on the course focuses on performing througher endogenous analysis for each country to determine a inflationary/ deflationary bias. I am just starting to question whether this is needed or a good use of time?
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