HI guys,
two questions here. I have been studying a course on macro fundamentals, which at the bedrock implies that inflationary conditions are bad for currencies, while deflationary conditions are good. I understand the argument, but actually I dont really see a strong correlation between GDP growth and currency performance. Should they not be quite strongly inversely correlated?
Secondly, a lot of the analysis takes the form of using statistical distributions to look for percentage changes outside of the norm. I just wonder how much of this is theory, and is it really an effective and efficient means to determine price movement? The course quoted above suggests 80% fundamental analysis vs. 20% technical. How would experienced traders view this?
thanks,
Tom