The USD/CAD pair is losing 1.04 % at 1.3013 and a breakdown of 1.2858 (2016 low Mar.31) would expose 1.2827 (monthly low Oct.15 2015) and finally 1.2124 (monthly low Jun.16). On the flip side, the initial up barrier lines up at 1.3290 (23.6% Fibo of 1.4692-1.2858) followed by 1.3390 (200-day SMA) and then 1.3500 (55-day SMA)
The pair broke below 1.2650, the next immediate target is at 1.2600, but I think we will see it fall much lower than that level in the coming weeks. I initially thought we would see some retracement once it reached 1.2660, but apparently the bearish trend is still too strong.
USD/CAD broke below 1.2600 and continues dropping, it didn't even retrace at the support at 1.2660 which is MA89 on the weekly time frame as I thought it would. The bearish trend clearly continues and next long-term target is around 1.2000, I think.
USD/CAD will continue dropping, I think. The trend is clearly very bearish still and there is no signal even for the beginning of consolidation, let alone a reversal. The pair is currently testing 1.2500 and I have almost no doubt that it will break below that level.
The pair reached the resistance at 1.3015 and formed a doji candlestick and a shooting star candlestick below the resistance at that level on the daily time frame, which were good signals that it would start falling again. Currently it's testing the support at 1.2870 and I think if it breaks below that level it will continue falling towards 1.2800.
Looking at the daily chart, keep the 1.2831-60 level in focus. The level was a swing high in March and a swing lows in July and October. Admittedly, the pair has been trading above and below the level in trading in April and also May. Last week the price fell below the area on the break to the low for the week. But on Friday, the low was 1.2834 - just above the lower extreme at 1.2831 and Wednesday, the low just squeaked below the level at 1.2829. So there is some signs of support. Keep the level in mind should there be some further downside this week. If tested - and holds - that would be more bullish for the pair.
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