Apr 09 2016 at 10:41
The USD/CAD pair is losing 1.04 % at 1.3013 and a breakdown of 1.2858 (2016 low Mar.31) would expose 1.2827 (monthly low Oct.15 2015) and finally 1.2124 (monthly low Jun.16). On the flip side, the initial up barrier lines up at 1.3290 (23.6% Fibo of 1.4692-1.2858) followed by 1.3390 (200-day SMA) and then 1.3500 (55-day SMA)
The pair will follow the direction of the oil.
USD/CAD is falling for now, but I am waiting to see whether it will break below the support at 1.2900. I don't intend to open more short positions before it does that.
I thought the correlation was negative to Oil because Canadian dollar follows Oil, as Oil increases, CAD will increase causing the USD/CAD ratio to drop, therefore short USD/CAD as Oil raises
Apr 12 2016 at 23:24
Oil has helped the Canadian Dollar and that is why the USDCAD is nearing the 1.2700 level. To the upside, the 1.2900 could act as resistance.
USD/CAD found some resistance at 1.2750 and it may retrace back to 1.2850, perhaps eveb higher, but I don't think this is the end of the bearish trend.
The pair has almost reached the support at 1.2660. Even if it breaks below that support first there will likely be a retracement first. I for one will be opening longs soon.
Apr 20 2016 at 13:53
Expecting a correction to 1.29.
Positivity
The pair broke below 1.2650, the next immediate target is at 1.2600, but I think we will see it fall much lower than that level in the coming weeks. I initially thought we would see some retracement once it reached 1.2660, but apparently the bearish trend is still too strong.
USD/CAD broke below 1.2600 and continues dropping, it didn't even retrace at the support at 1.2660 which is MA89 on the weekly time frame as I thought it would. The bearish trend clearly continues and next long-term target is around 1.2000, I think.
Apr 27 2016 at 23:40
Good drop on the USDCAD, the bearish trend is still in place, next support could be the 1.2500 level.
USD/CAD will continue dropping, I think. The trend is clearly very bearish still and there is no signal even for the beginning of consolidation, let alone a reversal. The pair is currently testing 1.2500 and I have almost no doubt that it will break below that level.
Apr 30 2016 at 15:06
Expecting a move up.
Positivity
May 02 2016 at 04:59
Seems like every round number on the daily chart of the USDCAD acts like a temporary resting area for the pair. No it is consolidating around the 1.2500 level.
I think the pair will break below 1.2500 soon and continue falling on its way down to 1.2400. Long-term target is at 1.2000, in my opinion.
The pair reached the resistance at 1.3015 and formed a doji candlestick and a shooting star candlestick below the resistance at that level on the daily time frame, which were good signals that it would start falling again. Currently it's testing the support at 1.2870 and I think if it breaks below that level it will continue falling towards 1.2800.
May 16 2016 at 04:10
The USDCAD consolidates below the 1.3000 level, a break below the 1.2900 level may take the pair to the 1.2800.
May 17 2016 at 08:32
I think it might even fall to 1.2760.
May 17 2016 at 13:01
Looking at the daily chart, keep the 1.2831-60 level in focus. The level was a swing high in March and a swing lows in July and October. Admittedly, the pair has been trading above and below the level in trading in April and also May. Last week the price fell below the area on the break to the low for the week. But on Friday, the low was 1.2834 - just above the lower extreme at 1.2831 and Wednesday, the low just squeaked below the level at 1.2829. So there is some signs of support. Keep the level in mind should there be some further downside this week. If tested - and holds - that would be more bullish for the pair.
May 17 2016 at 14:22
I'm long i think the bears are done for now.
Positivity
