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Apr 02, 2014 at 06:56
ahuruglica posted:
@ophili
May I add that mathematically it is not possible to predict the highest draw-down. The market does not remember your last move, so it is always possible that one losing trade can be followed by one loosing trade and so on. Also it is true that one trader in a winning trade has a different view on the market that the trader in a loosing trade. Most of the time traders that end in dd change their rules and behavior, that is when they start to lose more instead of winning.
In other words its just your firm believe that dd can't get higher. But the fact is, no one can predict that. Uncertainty rules the market.
Regads
You are right, no one can actually predict that, but it also depends on the trading operations sometimes.
love pips
Membre depuis Apr 21, 2013
posts 98
Apr 02, 2014 at 06:57
Well Said Donex, trading is gambling Period and its all about probability.
Apr 02, 2014 at 10:51
@forexalertsystem
That's rather oversimplifying it...most things are. Saying that trading is 'all about probability' is unhelpful, misleading and not to mention untrue. There are such a lot of factors involved in moving the values of currencies that to try to pin it down with stats alone is a sure way to wiping out. I speak from experience and nowadays don't have that risk...and I promise you that it's way more than maths alone that gets my results.
That's rather oversimplifying it...most things are. Saying that trading is 'all about probability' is unhelpful, misleading and not to mention untrue. There are such a lot of factors involved in moving the values of currencies that to try to pin it down with stats alone is a sure way to wiping out. I speak from experience and nowadays don't have that risk...and I promise you that it's way more than maths alone that gets my results.
Apr 02, 2014 at 14:17
B1FXprof posted:
@forexalertsystem
That's rather oversimplifying it...most things are. Saying that trading is 'all about probability' is unhelpful, misleading and not to mention untrue. There are such a lot of factors involved in moving the values of currencies that to try to pin it down with stats alone is a sure way to wiping out. I speak from experience and nowadays don't have that risk...and I promise you that it's way more than maths alone that gets my results.
Well said
love pips
forex_trader_81773
Membre depuis Jun 20, 2012
posts 24
Apr 02, 2014 at 14:17
ophili posted:ahuruglica posted:
@ophili
May I add that mathematically it is not possible to predict the highest draw-down. The market does not remember your last move, so it is always possible that one losing trade can be followed by one loosing trade and so on. Also it is true that one trader in a winning trade has a different view on the market that the trader in a loosing trade. Most of the time traders that end in dd change their rules and behavior, that is when they start to lose more instead of winning.
In other words its just your firm believe that dd can't get higher. But the fact is, no one can predict that. Uncertainty rules the market.
Regads
You are right, no one can actually predict that, but it also depends on the trading operations sometimes.
My dear friends the Drawdown YES is predictable if the system can !!! If you need exmples tell me please😉
Apr 02, 2014 at 14:41
(édité Apr 02, 2014 at 14:48)
Trading can be gambling ofc if u are not doing good MM and u work with bad strategies based on Martingale or Grid. If u dont have a strict rules of trading u are gambling, its like poker, if u sometime play a cards and sometime dont with the same conditions, them u are a gambler, u dont follow a strict rules.
And is true, u cant predict ur high DD , its imposiblle predict future, u can secure ur loss per trade . When i talk about risk, i talk about loss per trade, the most common 2% per trade, and if ur strategies dont correlationate them the DD would be small. But if anyone say he can predict the max DD, he is a lier, i can give u the max DD based on history analisis of past time, but future noone knows. If someone could predict max DD them why he is not rich? It's like u talk me u can predict some price movement 100% secure, false.
And is true, u cant predict ur high DD , its imposiblle predict future, u can secure ur loss per trade . When i talk about risk, i talk about loss per trade, the most common 2% per trade, and if ur strategies dont correlationate them the DD would be small. But if anyone say he can predict the max DD, he is a lier, i can give u the max DD based on history analisis of past time, but future noone knows. If someone could predict max DD them why he is not rich? It's like u talk me u can predict some price movement 100% secure, false.
Caution ¡¡ Forex market is full of scams ¡¡
forex_trader_81773
Membre depuis Jun 20, 2012
posts 24
Apr 02, 2014 at 15:26
optimofx posted:
Trading can be gambling ofc if u are not doing good MM and u work with bad strategies based on Martingale or Grid. If u dont have a strict rules of trading u are gambling, its like poker, if u sometime play a cards and sometime dont with the same conditions, them u are a gambler, u dont follow a strict rules.
And is true, u cant predict ur high DD , its imposiblle predict future, u can secure ur loss per trade . When i talk about risk, i talk about loss per trade, the most common 2% per trade, and if ur strategies dont correlationate them the DD would be small. But if anyone say he can predict the max DD, he is a lier, i can give u the max DD based on history analisis of past time, but future noone knows. If someone could predict max DD them why he is not rich? It's like u talk me u can predict some price movement 100% secure, false.
Dear Optimo
If your system comprising a strategy and a money management that can predict you max DD it will no matter what the market do. I must to insist because it could be that it only exist the traditional aproach to the investment in financial markets. But since a few years ago it exist the mathematical and probabilistic aproach, that well combined with the fundamental analisis can result in a piece of Swiss watch!
And YES you can predit your DD!😉
Apr 02, 2014 at 17:35
(édité Apr 02, 2014 at 17:38)
Another point, if u see "Risk of Ruin" table from myfxbook of any of ur systems, u could see what u can "predict" about Drawdowns, u can have a probability of a DD, but never talk about u can predict a DD.
I studied 2 years Stadisctic in University and never asked us about prediction of a problem, just her probabilty of sucess.
Pls read about "stochastic process" and "stadistic frecuency".
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proceso_estoc%C3%A1stico ---> talk about market cant be predicted. See photo.
I studied 2 years Stadisctic in University and never asked us about prediction of a problem, just her probabilty of sucess.
Pls read about "stochastic process" and "stadistic frecuency".
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proceso_estoc%C3%A1stico ---> talk about market cant be predicted. See photo.
Caution ¡¡ Forex market is full of scams ¡¡
Apr 02, 2014 at 17:48
Briefly , u can talk about Probabilty of a DD, and the most important u must say the "sample size" ( number of trades in that case) u use for the study. And fiabilty of that sample, what spread u use for study ? Ur history data is correct ? Tick to tick? etc there's a lot of thing to consider.
Caution ¡¡ Forex market is full of scams ¡¡
forex_trader_81773
Membre depuis Jun 20, 2012
posts 24
Apr 02, 2014 at 18:24
I ask >
It could be possible to have a 0.48% drawdown, and 52% of profits in 21 days?
best😉
It could be possible to have a 0.48% drawdown, and 52% of profits in 21 days?
best😉
forex_trader_136673
Membre depuis Jun 28, 2013
posts 842
Apr 02, 2014 at 18:40
I don't think trading is investing. I also don't think trading is gambling.
I think trading is some sort of INVEGLING.
Regards 😄
I think trading is some sort of INVEGLING.
Regards 😄
Membre depuis Apr 21, 2013
posts 98
Apr 02, 2014 at 18:40
Take a look at our professionally managed forex accounts on our profile and look at the draw-down to overall account return ratios. this will give you a good idea of acceptable limits.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexalertsystem/c-1-live/843495
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexalertsystem/c-1-live/843495
forex_trader_136673
Membre depuis Jun 28, 2013
posts 842
Apr 02, 2014 at 18:40
fxOGEDI posted:
I ask >
It could be possible to have a 0.48% drawdown, and 52% of profits in 21 days?
best😉
It possible not in 21 but in less than one hour. Sometimes in seconds.
But that is irrelevant to anyone who takes trading seriously.
Apr 02, 2014 at 20:24
(édité Apr 02, 2014 at 20:44)
B1FXprof posted:
That's rather oversimplifying it...most things are. Saying that trading is 'all about probability' is unhelpful, misleading and not to mention untrue. There are such a lot of factors involved in moving the values of currencies that to try to pin it down with stats alone is a sure way to wiping out. I speak from experience and nowadays don't have that risk...and I promise you that it's way more than maths alone that gets my results.
It's untrue if you have some form of fundamental analysis, but if you are purely technical then it's 100% true. Technical analysis is purely probabilities.
No matter what sort of technical analysis you use. Whether it is patterns, advanced patterns, support/resistance, trendlines, candle formations, RSI, MAs, Stochastics, whatever, you are looking at the history and saying, when this has occurred in the past this has happened and the probability of it happening again is higher than it not happening again. Sure after that other factors such as money management, risk, lot sizing etc may affect the result, but the bottom line is that it is probabilities when using only technical analysis.
Is it gambling? Depends on the connotation of gambling. I personally don't think it's gambling if you trade a system that proves itself to have a mathematical edge.
Do casinos offering all their games gamble? No they don't. They know their games have a mathematical edge and in the long run, very important, in the long run they will make money and plenty of it. Sure they can have some variance (Drawdown) and sometimes large variances (must have a bankroll large enough to sustain the drawdown) but eventually the probabilities of their mathematical edge will cut in and they will make their expectation every single time. Nothing more, nothing less.
At any given month one particular table could be losing money due to variance, but they don't offer one table, they have many tables to overcome the variance, to overcome the drawdown.
Likewise, a trading system with a few weeks, a few months, low volume doesn't really tell you anything. The sample size needs to be reasonable, yes that is subjective, but to make a judgement of a system, you need some reasonable time, at least a year with a reasonable amount of volume, before the stats can tell you anything about the system.
Hate your losers more than you like your winners
Membre depuis Aug 30, 2013
posts 280
Apr 02, 2014 at 21:07
forexalertsystem posted:
Take a look at our professionally managed forex accounts on our profile and look at the draw-down to overall account return ratios. this will give you a good idea of acceptable limits.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexalertsystem/c-1-live/843495
LOL @ professional accounts at only 2 months old.... that's fantastic!
Membre depuis May 22, 2013
posts 9
Apr 03, 2014 at 06:16
forexalertsystem posted:
Take a look at our professionally managed forex accounts on our profile and look at the draw-down to overall account return ratios. this will give you a good idea of acceptable limits.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexalertsystem/c-1-live/843495
Hi- Got ur full trading history from custom analysis. Not fair to hide info-
Gain:-3.67%
Abs. Gain: +34.39%
Daily: -0.09%
Monthly: -2.71%
Drawdown: 66.47%
Membre depuis Apr 21, 2013
posts 98
Apr 03, 2014 at 06:18
your not to bright we have accounts that go back further, plus we have more then 1 profile on myfxbook, some accounts with over 1,000 percent return. silly boy.... when we say professional accounts, because these are individual accounts that belong to others. they turn them over and we let our system run on them we don't post every account we have. just examples from time to time...
you took 3 months to get your gains, we can pull that in a single month. these new accounts we have listed are part of a new program. that is designed to do minimum 20% a month. we will roll out more information on it in about 6 months.
you took 3 months to get your gains, we can pull that in a single month. these new accounts we have listed are part of a new program. that is designed to do minimum 20% a month. we will roll out more information on it in about 6 months.
forex_trader_81773
Membre depuis Jun 20, 2012
posts 24
Apr 03, 2014 at 06:21
ahuruglica posted:
I don't think trading is investing. I also don't think trading is gambling.
I think trading is some sort of INVEGLING.
Regards 😄
INVEGLING ??? My dear friend, That explain why your aproach can not consider the possibility of the absolute control of the Drawdown! Look:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxOGEDI/thefulllife-10/629786
