Aug 15 2015 at 08:03
Good Day Gentlemen/Women,
I am trying to get a perspective on the Fed interest Rate decision coming up. If the Fed decides to raise interest rates in September, I take it this would be a sign that the US Economy is strengthening, therefore the dollar is becoming a lot stronger versus other currency pairs. This would therefore mean that pairs pegged against the USD for example EUR/USD, GBP/USD would see a sharp drop on the day .
Please let me know if my rationale is correct...
I am trying to get a perspective on the Fed interest Rate decision coming up. If the Fed decides to raise interest rates in September, I take it this would be a sign that the US Economy is strengthening, therefore the dollar is becoming a lot stronger versus other currency pairs. This would therefore mean that pairs pegged against the USD for example EUR/USD, GBP/USD would see a sharp drop on the day .
Please let me know if my rationale is correct...
Forex is about the journey not the destination...
Aug 15 2015 at 13:21
Yes right.
Anyway, why Fed would raise interest rate?
Anyway, why Fed would raise interest rate?
Sometimes the opposite can happen, don't be too impatient and start shorting those currency pairs before the news hits.
I don't owe you pip, You don't owe me pip. Lets help each other.
Aug 18 2015 at 08:30
Expectations are part of the game. But kayz is right, markets are never obvious.
Positivity
For some time now, the possible interest rate hike this September has been on the mind of USD traders in the forex. Janet Yellen chair of the Federal Reserve has made attempts to ease the tension and concerns over higher interest rates in the market by revealing that any possible rate hike will not be too fast and well dependent on the American Economy. For really a long time interest rates were zero but this will be different from past rate hikes as it could be an on/off approach. So I think that the outcome of the non farm payroll report (NFP) which were published on Friday on September 4 will really affect the chances interest rate hike this September. Changes in the payroll are pretty volatile as a positive non farm payroll is bullish for the American dollar which is good for the dollae but one that doesn't meet expectations is bearish and negative for the USD. Should employment data be as impressive as it has been since May 8 when the American economic had recorded above 200,000 gains, then the chances of an interest rate for this September would be more solid with a greater chance of occurring. But should employment be disappointing or possibly a mixed data, the chances of a September rate hike would fade and the market could even turn against the USD.
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