Discussion Fxtest_EURUSD-EA_Real

fxcall posted:
Dear FxMasterGuru
You are really good in writing...!!!
I dont need to give any proof because my account is like open book.Its not only one or two week old..
Also i never said that my ea is holy grail or make you rich in one day.
If you cant compatible with my system,Than dont join.Who force you.

Thanks.

Dear FxCall,

Thanks for the compliment. 😄

Personally I will definitelly not join a strategy which could result in -40% DD with one 'basket', which would be a -20k loss on a 50k account. Even -20% DD is too much for me. I have been through many DDs, and I know my personal tolerance. Maybe -10%. At max.

I am not your enemy and my motivation here is NOT to stop people to buy your EA, but to buy it with full knowledge of what could happen. By my comments actually I am protectin you from potential cursing and angry e-mails and comments in case your strategy suffered a -40% loss.

I wish your strategy never suffers this -40% 'basket loss', but if it happens, you can refer to this blog. I am doing a service to you by giving a 'full disclosure' to your potential subcribers, so they should be aware of what MIGHT happen. I call it 'fair play'.

I think it is possible to control the risk. Seems most vendors like to show a high risk to attract customers. If your preferred max dd on the basket with a SL of 400 pips is 10% of your account equity I am sure you could adjust the lot size to make it so.

gwilym posted:
I think it is possible to control the risk. Seems most vendors like to show a high risk to attract customers. If your preferred max dd on the basket with a SL of 400 pips is 10% of your account equity I am sure you could adjust the lot size to make it so.

Thanks for pointing it out. That is absolutely correct. My concern is still (the 'heavier' version of) the Worst Case Scenario. In one of my previous comments I mentioned only the 'light' version of it.

So let's say, we adjust the risk so that one 'basket's' loss is -10%. First you also have to adjust the monthly profit expectation to 7%. Which is not bad at all.

On the other hand, what if you run into 3-4 'basket losses'? You are immediately at 30-40% DD. It is very unlikely, but it can happen. And WHEN it REALLY happens with a larger account it can be very painful.

In my opinion one basket trade is ONE trade. According to the rules (which one can find in the most respected trading books), one trade should not risk more than 2% of the capital. If you are an aggressive trader with market-tested 'steel nerves', maybe 3%. But already pushing it. Investors with large accounts may tolerate 1% per trade, but the conservative ones probably just 0.5% or even less.

You can say, lets reduce the 'basket's' risk to 1%, so we can trade a $100k account with this EA so, that even a really bad and long serial 'basket loss' would be reasonably tolerable. OK. Then let's calculate the potential monthly profit: approx. 0.8%, i.e. 9.6% yearly. Just slightly better than the government insured bank interest rate on deposits (6% per year) where I live.

Would I invest my funds for an extra 3% yearly profit (or even for a 9.6% yearly profit) without any government guarantees, but with extra costs and time (EA/subscription fee, VPS, supervision of the EA, etc.)...? No, definitely not. To put up with 9.6% yearly profit I would want no additional costs, no hassle and 100% government guarantee for the capital and the interest.

Hello, Fxmasterguru..

I value your opinion.Thanks for your advise.And also i know Worst Case Scenario.That is the reason i am thinking to add more pairs and share risk to all added pairs. so we can reduce the risk.
And of course as mentioned kookoo we can run this system on low risk also.

Dear Fxmasterguru..
I can understand that every trader has their own risk limitation.So you dont want to join now.No problem.But i have confidence on my system.I am sure that you will join my service in future.After official release of my service all picture will be clear and in very short time you will better understand the risk settings and trading style.i will be happy to welcome as my client.

I am very serious in my service and my goal is to start one of the most profitable,reliable and very stable signal service on the market with very stable performance and best support to all clients.

Thanks.

Dear Fxcall:

I really wish you the best. I have no reason not to. My comments were simply intended to 'enlarge the Small Print' for those who are not familiar with all the aspects of grid trading strategies. Peace! 😄

Just one more thing how subscribers may react to occasional DD when risking their hard earned dollars:

This is a blog entry from DonnaForex about FxAmp, one of the 'hit strategies' of the recent months: 'Currently -2.78% this month, this is really disaster.' (https://www.donnaforex.com/forum/index.php?topic=9627.1395)

Well, -2.78% = DISASTER for a subscriber of FxAmp... It may sound funny, but that is exactly what I referred to in my previous comments about risk tolerance. Usually most traders have 'high risk tolerance' until that 'risk' materializes itself. Then most people forget about their 'risk tolerance' and panic. I guess that the trader who wrote this comment has the same issue.

Using FxAmp's basic risk settings the max. historical DD of it was about -5% from the beginning. So this trader probably had accepted the strategy's -5% DD risk... Nevertheless, when the month is -2.78% down, then it is a 'disaster'. 😄

If -2.78% is a 'disaster' for some (accumulated over approx. one week) then what about -40% (happening in an instant), or even -10%...??

trades are not matching the vendors account. On one account I have 4 x SELL trades opened on Friday, on another I have 4 X SELL trades opened today. On the vendors account there are no trades....

gwilym posted:
trades are not matching the vendors account. On one account I have 4 x SELL trades opened on Friday, on another I have 4 X SELL trades opened today. On the vendors account there are no trades....

Oh, my...! Here we go... 😕

I also got 4 sell today , closed manually with loss, but had 4 wins in the night and this morning. seems this is very broker sensitive

gwilym posted:
trades are not matching the vendors account. On one account I have 4 x SELL trades opened on Friday, on another I have 4 X SELL trades opened today. On the vendors account there are no trades....

Have you put new version of fxtest entry ea.
Please contact me.

vanupips posted:
I also got 4 sell today , closed manually with loss, but had 4 wins in the night and this morning. seems this is very broker sensitive

This ea is not broker sensitive.Do you have new version of fxtest_entry..
If not than contact me by mail..

vanupips posted:
I also got 4 sell today , closed manually with loss, but had 4 wins in the night and this morning. seems this is very broker sensitive

Oh, my... Oh, my...!! Here we go AGAIN... 😲

But at least Fxcall could profit on his account. Congratulations to him!

'Well deserved' 400 USD EA licence fees for Fxcall for an EA which produces different trades and losses...

Thanks for the comments from the volunteer 'guinea pigs' (sorry for the symbolism). Your sacrifices are greatly appreciated!

FxMasterGuru posted:
[...]
2. Sure, sure... It is always comforting not to discuss the WORST CASE SCENARIOS, because it might be too painful to face them.

I am here as a defender of newcomers, as I have seen too many GRID strategies to fail. Just show me even one GRID strategy on MyFxBook which could survive even one year without major (>20%) drawdown. I would call >20% DD as 'major', as subscribers of ANY strategy start to curse and panic when hitting 20% DD. So to evoke such emotions, a 20% DD has to be 'major'.
[...]

I generally agree with all what you are trying to communicate here but I don't agree on your method :) Just to prove that grid systems can work (this is not for advertising) https://www.myfxbook.com/members/TulipFX/kangaroo/68427
And your calculations on 400 pips SL are a bit off; checking history reveals that 100 pip is for 1st trade, the others have the same price level not distance. My rough calculation tells it's about 28% with the published settings - which is still very high. The only question which needs to be evaluated is how much is the mean time between stops (let's call it MTBF :) ). If it can recover much more than it loses than it's OK, if not, then it is garbage.

Cheers,
MikKi

Hi

how to get it?

venox250 posted:

FxMasterGuru posted:
[...]
2. Sure, sure... It is always comforting not to discuss the WORST CASE SCENARIOS, because it might be too painful to face them.

I am here as a defender of newcomers, as I have seen too many GRID strategies to fail. Just show me even one GRID strategy on MyFxBook which could survive even one year without major (>20%) drawdown. I would call >20% DD as 'major', as subscribers of ANY strategy start to curse and panic when hitting 20% DD. So to evoke such emotions, a 20% DD has to be 'major'.
[...]

I generally agree with all what you are trying to communicate here but I don't agree on your method :) Just to prove that grid systems can work (this is not for advertising) https://www.myfxbook.com/members/TulipFX/kangaroo/68427
And your calculations on 400 pips SL are a bit off; checking history reveals that 100 pip is for 1st trade, the others have the same price level not distance. My rough calculation tells it's about 28% with the published settings - which is still very high. The only question which needs to be evaluated is how much is the mean time between stops (let's call it MTBF :) ). If it can recover much more than it loses than it's OK, if not, then it is garbage.

Cheers,
MikKi

Dear MiKKi (Kedves Miklós!)

You are right. I did consider that the grid entries do not have equal losses, that is why I used the word 'approximately' in my comment.

It is funny that you bring up FxTulip today, which EA has been doing great for almost 3 years. Until TODAY when it has created a 19% DD, wiping out approx. 6 months' of profits. If you had started FxTulip a few weeks ago with 100k, your losses would be around 18k today. Would you add 18k to your account and continue FxTulip...?? Possibly, but I doubt.

As this above example shows 'sh.t can hit the fan' at any time with grid strategies. And sooner or later it will. The question is whether you are lucky enough to build up some profit before it happend. But if we have to talk about luck in regard to any strategy, then probably its not worthwhile even to consider. Unless a 'touch of gambling' is what a trader needs to spice his days up.

Best regards (Üdvözlettel):

FMG

FxMasterGuru posted:

It is funny that you bring up FxTulip today, which EA has been doing great for almost 3 years. Until TODAY when it has created a 19% DD, wiping out approx. 6 months' of profits. If you had started FxTulip a few weeks ago with 100k, your losses would be around 18k today. Would you add 18k to your account and continue FxTulip...?? Possibly, but I doubt.

As this above example shows 'sh.t can hit the fan' at any time with grid strategies. And sooner or later it will. The question is whether you are lucky enough to build up some profit before it happend. But if we have to talk about luck in regard to any strategy, then probably its not worthwhile even to consider. Unless a 'touch of gambling' is what a trader needs to spice his days up.

Best regards (Üdvözlettel):

FMG

'wiping out 6 months..'? I suggest you look again.

While I truly appreciate your posts here, as I tried to get a sense of risk for this system as well by asking questions about max DD at default risk (see previous posts), you also seem to exaggerate a bit.

In defense of TulipFX, the potential drawdown at default risk settings was always clearly communicated and documented. So every trader knew well in advance what could happen should they run Kangaroo on default risk.

FxMasterGuru posted:

It is funny that you bring up FxTulip today, which EA has been doing great for almost 3 years. Until TODAY when it has created a 19% DD, wiping out approx. 6 months' of profits. If you had started FxTulip a few weeks ago with 100k, your losses would be around 18k today. Would you add 18k to your account and continue FxTulip...?? Possibly, but I doubt.

If you look at that chart, SL's happened in the past too. I was only a reflection to your inquiry about a grid system that is more than a year old and has less than 20% drawdown. Kangaroo is still like that even with today's SL.

san4x posted:

'wiping out 6 months..'? I suggest you look again.

While I truly appreciate your posts here, as I tried to get a sense of risk for this system as well by asking questions about max DD at default risk (see previous posts), you also seem to exaggerate a bit.

In defense of TulipFX, the potential drawdown at default risk settings was always clearly communicated and documented. So every trader knew well in advance what could happen should they run Kangaroo on default risk.

This is my point too: know the risks involved and see if risk:reward is okay.

Hi dear fxtest.
As i mentioned before i run fxtest on semi auto mode and working great.
I read your post you mentioned that you are going to add more pairs.Which pairs do you want to add? Have you tested before?
No doubt fxtest is working fine on eurusd.I want to see how its working on other pairs.gbpusd,usdchf or other jpy pairs may be good for this strategy.When will you start your signal service?

Always thanking you.
Keep it up.
GOLDY

san4x posted:

FxMasterGuru posted:

It is funny that you bring up FxTulip today, which EA has been doing great for almost 3 years. Until TODAY when it has created a 19% DD, wiping out approx. 6 months' of profits. If you had started FxTulip a few weeks ago with 100k, your losses would be around 18k today. Would you add 18k to your account and continue FxTulip...?? Possibly, but I doubt.

As this above example shows 'sh.t can hit the fan' at any time with grid strategies. And sooner or later it will. The question is whether you are lucky enough to build up some profit before it happend. But if we have to talk about luck in regard to any strategy, then probably its not worthwhile even to consider. Unless a 'touch of gambling' is what a trader needs to spice his days up.

Best regards (Üdvözlettel):

FMG

'wiping out 6 months..'? I suggest you look again.

While I truly appreciate your posts here, as I tried to get a sense of risk for this system as well by asking questions about max DD at default risk (see previous posts), you also seem to exaggerate a bit.

In defense of TulipFX, the potential drawdown at default risk settings was always clearly communicated and documented. So every trader knew well in advance what could happen should they run Kangaroo on default risk.

Thanks for the correction. You are right. I was visually estimating Kanga's DD based on its profit curve. It seemed that the profit dropped to the visual level of approximately January of 2013. Since it is not possible to determine exactly when the profit was at that level, using the average monthly profit %, ONE BASKET has wiped out more than 4 months' of profit. In one day.

For most people the losses are really 6 months of profit or even more. Why? Because with any profitable strategy 95% percent of the traders increase their stake. Most of them want more profits, they reinvest their profits, even add to the capital and increase their lots. So their losses today were exponential and that is why 95% of Kanga's followers' profits are set back by at least 6 months. The only exceptions are those traders who have been trading Kanga with the same exact lot number for years. Like FxTulip's portfolio. I doubt that there is even one Kanga subscriber who would run it with the same exact lots for years....

So after all, my estimation was probably right for 95% of Kanga clients. Or even too optimistic.
__________________________________________________________________________________

So, what are the chances that Kanga will not wipe out another 4 months' profit in a few days? I don't know, but statistically much higher than yesterday, as it just happened.

Why now? Why most strategies stumble after some time? Well, because market behaviour can change unpredictably. So only those strategies and traders can survive and be successful on the long run, who can SENSE and ANTICIPATE these changes. (We all have indicators letting us know about these changes. But too late. After the facts.) That is why fund managers producing 30-40% YEARLY profits can collect millions of dollars monthly salaries.