System8 (by pinball) Statistiques en bref
Gain: +121.39%
Drawdown: 0.99%
Pips: 13622140.0
Trades: 5666
Gagné:
Perdu:
Type: Réel
Levier: 1:50
Trading: Automatisé

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System8 Discussion
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pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Jan 04 2010 at 02:35
As per 2010 jan 4, 03:32 CET, NAV is 3334

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Jan 08 2010 at 22:31
As per 2010 jan 8, 23:31 CET, NAV is 4221 since last week, eur 156 has been withdrawn

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Jan 16 2010 at 14:37
On jan 16, 2010 15:36 CET, NAV was 4263


knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Jan 24 2010 at 16:34
On Jan 24, 2010 17:28 CET, NAV was 2832 EUR (100 EUR was moved from this system to system3 over the weekend)

General comments on the week :

usd kept getting stronger and gold and silver crashed. That's opposite to my longterm macro expectations and with enough volatility to make the most levered systems loose almost all their money (again). I decided to triple the bankroll of system2, and double system3, while taking off about 10% from system7 and 5% from system8 to fund this. If my lt macro view takes over again this week S2 and S3 can pay back what they borrowed with a nice interest. If not, i'll refund them next time they crash and burn. I am far from certain that the usd rally is over, or the comodities crash is over, the recent chinese decision to freeze credit the rest of the month, as well as the obvious trouble in greece and spain could pressure euro and comodities in the short run, and by a side effect make the usd rise some more. However i don't think the us can keep attracting money for much longer - they do not have the funds to pay interest and debt. their creditors ought to start trying to take some money out of the us, moving rates higher and perhaps support the usd in the very short term, but trigging a default in the longer term. (or a devaluation of usd)

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Jan 31 2010 at 18:07 (édité à Jan 31 2010 at 18:08 )
On Jan 31, 2010 18:56 CET, NAV was 1973 EUR(200 EUR was moved away from this system, 100 to system2, and 100 to system3 - these funds were moved late last week).

General comments on the week:

USD kept getting stronger and gold and silver continued to crash. While this is likely a shortterm usd rally inside a longterm usd crash, it has decimated all systems. I keep funding system2 and system3 from system8 as I think the probability of finding a bottom rises fast at these levels. However, i might have to try a few more times before getting it right.

The greece situation is surely not good, but i can't agree as most in the media that a greek default on bonds should be such a great problem for the euro.. i mean, it's just some stupid country having borrowed a lot of euros they won't be paying back. Why should their default pressure the euro? The euro is fine-fine, it's greek bonds that are in peril.

However, if somehow the greek are saved by ECB by printing more euros to them then of course it will increase the euro M0, which is in the end inflational.

I hope and expect ECB to tell the greek to start spending less than they earn, and tough it out. The problem is greek people , companies and government spending more than they produce, the problem is NOT the value of the euro. If they want a declining currency to borrow they can start issuing bonds in icelandic kronor, i don't care..

The story is the same for spain, but i think the problems are worse in greece than in spain.


Looking back half a year or so, one can see that the currencies i invest in have unlocked from each other and are again living their seperate lives. That is a big plus - adds to lowering my volatility as the noise in their moves cancel out each other a little bit.


knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Feb 06 2010 at 20:07
On feb 6, 2010 20:57 CET, system 8 had 1047 NAV. several times during the week, funds have been moved away from S8 to fund other crashing systems, in eur 100 chunks.

This week we saw euros tank from already low levels of 1.38 to a bottom of 1.358 before ending at 1.367 About at the bottom i moved some funds out from S8 and S7 into the more levered systems 3 and 6. midweek i did something similar, taking money from s8 and putting it into s2 and s3.

Gold and silver are still rather expensive compard to a few years ago, but i don't think the rising worldwide money supply have started to take gold and silver up even more.. Not sure when it happens, but hope i still have my systems running to make a good profit. The euro has been really weak lately, some say because several countries might have problems paying back their debt (which is in euros). As the usd is at least as weak as the euro fundamentally (if not weaker) i find it a bit strange that people rush to usd for safety, but bad habits die hard i guess.

In my other account i am looking at oil.. i hope it tanks some more, then i will start to build a longterm long position in oil futures. Will probably go long oil when i think the sp500 is done crashing. A guesstimate would be around 600 to 800.

Since the top, my combined forex accouts are down about 90% - bad dollar rally ;-) - it will take a visit into 1.6s on eurusd to get those losses back on the book.

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Feb 14 2010 at 19:14
On feb 14, 2010 20:13 CET, system 8 had 1264 EUR NAV. Very volatile week, but most systems ended up with gains, mostly due to gold and silver rising some during the week. volatility was almost within limits for system3, it was too much for system2, the other systems did great in that respect.

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Feb 21 2010 at 18:21
Account value as of 21 feb 2010 19:16 CET 1431 EUR

Finally a week where things moved relatively reasonably my way. All accounts were up, the gold and silver concetrated ones were up sharply. Need a few more weeks like last one to get back to where i came from, i guess it depends on the relative performance of usd and other currencies. i'm quite sure gold and silver are heading up as they will get more and more important as safe heavens when various fiat currencies get some flak.

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Feb 26 2010 at 22:51
Account value as of 26 feb 2010 23:33 CET is EUR 1413. 86 usd = 63 EUR were taken out of the account to pay for the API

This week we saw silver and gold crash (sort of) and the dollar rallying (sort of) into midweek only to have the moves almost entirely reversed when we hit friday. The swings were inside tolerance levels for all systems except system2, which got so wiped out that it couldn't hold on to its single gold position of one ounce. After it lost its gold position (and thus were quite badly 'balanced' between gold and silver, i transferred 100 euros from system 7 (also a silver+gold long against usd) to system 2, to get it back up working. It promptly bought 2 ounces of gold and rode silver and gold a bit down, then back up. This week i had to transfer 600 usd from the systems to the primary account to pay for the oanda fee. 86 usd was taken from each system, so percentage wise it was a big hit for system2, and only a minor hit for system8. My combined trading accounts stands at 3546 euros, after the $600 fee has left the trading accounts.

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
pinball

Membre depuis Oct 24, 2009  159 messages Pinball (pinball) Mar 05 2010 at 23:18
Account value as of 5 mar 2010 23:59 CET is EUR 1299 375 euros was withdrawn from system8 on thursday, so adding them back in shows that S8 had a great week, going from 1413 to 1674. Bear in mind that system8 is not very levered, is very diversified and thus not very agressive.

In general a very good week for most systems - especially the gold and silver moves were highly profitable. If the next several weeks are the same, I will get back to some reasonable NAV values. It was a bit unfortunate i had to withdraw 1500+ euros thursday, but i really needed the money somewhere else. I decided to withdraw half of what was avaialble acc. to oanda, so the least levered accounts had to pony up with the highest amounts of money. The trade system was running as i did the withdrawals and the trading system reduced positions to match the new NAV automatically. I love stuff that adapts dynamically even to quite bizarre events like money disappearing from one second to the next...
The total combined account NAV is now 3344 euros, down from 3546 the week before - but remember i took out 1500+ on thursday. Had i not, we would be at around 5000 euros combined, sharply up from 3546 the week before.

knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
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