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VG intraday 5 pairs Bi-directional (de Elkart )

Lutilisateur a supprimé ce système.

Discussion VG intraday 5 pairs Bi-directional

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 11:36
posts 941
I just browsed by another super successful system. The trades were locked as usual.

So here's one with the trades open.

This system is not viable. It will fail on this amount. I can make it work $1 000 000 plus with separate MM software. But anything less than that is not viable.

Look at the stats. Gain 241.99%, Abs gain 241.96%.

Actual gain is 42% in a month, blistering fast, but not long term sustainable. I expect to be margin called in a week or so. I guess I could always TP out, but that wouldn't help prove the point.

And here is why 'professionals' have issues with EA's. They think we think we can trade this. I have no illusions about that, but chasing 30% per annum on $10k isn't worth my time. On $1 000 000 I don't have to chase it, I'll tell the software to do it and it will do it, but I don't have access to that type of cash. So I don't try perform like a professional, it's not worth it.

So damned if I do, damned if I don't....

If the figures are locked folks, browse right past. I and thus anyone can show you exactly what I want to until myfxbook goes to an equity based system.

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 12:33
posts 941
Big cahoonas to myfxbook. Awesome site, but unless we have equity based figures it's open to abuse...

PipCollector
Mar 05 2010 at 14:26
posts 92
Yes, indeed looking at the equity % gives you a different picture.

What's the difference between $10K account and $1M ? Do you have a way of maintaining the equity above a certain level? Or is the system's equity just tries to 'chase' the balance?

Does it help trading 5 pairs? What's the difference if you were to trade only 2 or 3?

Patience is a virtue.
Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 14:40
posts 941
The diff is the draw down.

On this account equity swings can be 30% in a day. On a $1 mil account that be 30% / 10 =3% / 10 =0.3%, so suddenly it's a manageable figure. I see it, I wait for the high swing and close out say 30% of the portfolio. No real risk. Equity swings drop to 0.1%

If you have $100 and lose 10%, you have $90. If you take $90 and add 10% you have $99, not $100. To recover from a 50% equity swing I have to make 100%. I can't allow the swings.

30% in a day is 3 bad days and I'm out. 0.3% is a year of bad days.

So now I can play performance, how much do I want? I go look at draw down. And adjust the trade sizes to what is acceptable to the portfolio. At this rate 4.2% a month would require 3% draw down so far on $1 mil...

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 14:42
posts 941
Kicks Buffet's butt, but who'll risk a bar on a demo? So 1000% per annum on 1k, here we come....

On pairs I'll trade up to 24. These were in preparation for a European master account, and the pairs were what those investors would expect to see.

The new account that arrives on this master will always be 10k euro, and although I can trade the 6 figure account, I can't trade the new account coming in. Just can't make it work on these trade sizes. The minimum trade sizes is 100 times to big.

PipCollector
Mar 05 2010 at 14:44
posts 92
I see.

Do you have an exit strategy with which you can close all positions and still keep a big part of your profit?

Patience is a virtue.
kennyhubbard (compuforexpamm)
Mar 05 2010 at 14:54
posts 265
So why not trade 0.01 lots......that would give you a similar risk profile? Seems to me with 0.1 lots you are asking for huge equity swings............

Wealth Creation Through Technology
Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 14:54
posts 941
I have one for my own accounts. But I can't exit this and have a happy investor.

I have to prevent this from happening, have to deal with this before it starts by bringing the balance down constantly when appropriate, but again can't do it at these trade sizes.

It's not good enough to make money. You have to make it in such a way that the investor will understand it.



Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 14:56
posts 941
CP

Varengold's minimum trade size. If I'm down to 0.01 I'm on a mini account doing 30% per annum on 10k. Not worth it.

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 15:00
posts 941
A 10k mini is the same as a 100k standard, even at 100k at 30% per annum it's not worth my while. Do 30% profit $30 000 I get maybe $3000 fee for a year. Diving is $10 000 a month and then I do nothing. No responsibility, wake up, go blow bubbles, don't die and when I'm done I go drink beer in Asia, vs. 1000 screaming clients...

kennyhubbard (compuforexpamm)
Mar 05 2010 at 15:02
posts 265
Fair enough, although 4.2% x 12 = 50% PA whch I am sure most would be happy with. I agree that 30% - 50% PA is not worth the effort, for your own account but for an outsider it is awesome.

Wealth Creation Through Technology
Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 15:11
posts 941
The risk here is huge. It is fat tail. Anything can take me out of the market.

But I could run it like this: at 400% take 50%.

So 1k to 4k, take 2k, 2k to 8k, take 4k, 4k to 16k, take 8k......don't know how far one will get, but in a sideways year I'd bet it's far...

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 05 2010 at 15:14
posts 941
As long as we call it what it is. Most of these ninja locked system are this type of system. They look awesome, but not viable.

Easy to run on a big fund and kick some sand in eyes where required for a while at least. Put away in the good days, when it folds walk away, markets did it, but for mere mortals like me, who actually wants to be ethical and provide something that works...sigh...the battle continues...and this is why the amateurs will rule eventually, we have to fight that much harder.

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 06 2010 at 00:32
posts 941
See - gone from being up 50% to almost 100% today on NFP. Gone the other way I'd be sitting within a few cents of a margin call.

And on minimum trade sizes. Nothing I can do to slow it down. Looks beautiful, but it's really just a very sophisticated coin toss.

spahiu
Mar 08 2010 at 11:19
posts 1

Elkart posted:
 Looks beautiful, but it's really just a very sophisticated coin toss.


good one :)

Elkart
Elkart
Mar 16 2010 at 10:31
posts 941
Charming. I get to VG and it says invalid account. Expired. So it's going to be like this forever. We'll never know how it ended.

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