Posts de NextLevelForex - Page 7

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 22:20

Breaking news! Please listen to this!I installed FFM on a real money account; the market has been opened for 19 whole minutes, and the account did not double in value! Worse, the EA has not traded yet! What do I do now?...Joke aside, I was able to setup a real money account with FFM, and will post link later today.

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 21:44

You are not being paranoid at all Alec! Withing an industry where SCAM is the primary way of doing business, I think it's more than ok to have all these concerns. Here is my take on this.Towards the end of last year Clickbank enforced rules that limit ability of vendors to hype their product (http://www.clickbank.com/product_requirements.html, see bullet point I.d; also see Will's blog post on that topic: http://www.pipinvestment.com/software/more-transparency-towards-clickbank-vendors)Just couple of days ago Plimus cut access to all Forex EA vendors (very radical and un-business-like ...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 21:29

Very well said, Steve ;)Here are the 2 main things that attracted me to FFM:- the first commercial EA I ran across, that claims Pips Expectancy higher than 3 (they have those stats on the sales page, and I was very happy to see them; they said 22.9 for EURUSD, while I got 8.5 for my “Decent broker 2011 test” - still good), which indeed would make it a lot less broker dependent than most all other EAs in my portfolio- if the future results are only half of what is advertised, I don't need to pay someone up to 40% as performance fee. Although I did not give up on that front, and ...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 20:47

FFM should not suffer at all from the problems MDP had, if it is indeed trading as the vendor says (and so far seems to be true). To recap, the biggest MDP problem is getting good fills, which is only getting worse as more people are trading it.And it's too early to say anything about forward performance yet, so I would draw any conclusions. Once we have 100 trades, then we can talk (and the good thing is that the EA seems to be trade as often as advertised, so in very few weeks we could have those 100 trades).On a related note, I'll do my best to start forward testing on a real money ...

20-40% performance fee (with high watermark) for Forex traders dans Traders Expérimentés Jan 22, 2012 at 20:17

Wow, what's up with these hate comments? Did I hurt you so bad by saying your strategy is very risky, by my standards, and by pointing out you decided to hide the history after I shown an example of very risky basket of trades?Those were just my opinions, and you and everyone else reading them is free to dismiss them right away! I surely did not expect such a reaction from someone looking for clients, and asking $50,000 as minimum investment...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 17:31

Yes, I'll do that later today!The "revealing the strategy" document (Secret Report.pdf) you mentioned is close to a joke, imo. I'll let everyone to decide its value, but I don't think I would have released a report that seems to have no practical value (for the user).About optimization: none done, nor planned. I attempted to do it once, MT4 crashed, and I won't try again anytime soon, since there are other areas I need to focus on. The developer said the "out of the box" settings are optimized, so now I just want to see how good that corresponding performanc...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 17:20

Yes, Alec, that's the conclusion you can draw from 2011 BT. And if you look at the very low DD (2.95%), that's actually very good. If you use 0.02, you'll get double each month, for double the DD. Of course, it's just a BT :)I like my testing with fixed lots to see how the performance is throughout the testing period (otherwise a recent great performance could hide the very bad period that happened 1 year ago, for example). And I used 0.01 for a $1,000 account, since I really see no point in those backtests with million dollar accounts, trading 1000 lots each time - 99% of the...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 17:14

Thanks Steve for adding to my comment. Larger TP is essential to what I said, indeed. To be even more clear, for anyone still not believing this, just consider 2 EAs, ones expected to make 10 pips each trade, and one expected to make 1.5 pips each trade (that is the Pips Expectancy, btw, reported by myfxbook in the stats). If your broker slips you 0.5 pips on average, the first EA will lose 5% of profitability, and the second will lose 33%. For higher slippage they'll lose more, with the second going into negative territory fast. FFM is shown to have a 22 Pips Expectancy on the sales page,...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 17:09

Thanks, I did not know about that, but remember seeing that option, so I'll use it next time!

20-40% performance fee (with high watermark) for Forex traders dans Traders Expérimentés Jan 22, 2012 at 16:54

Thanks Pedro for your efforts, and I agree managing risk is one key to sustained profitability. I believe you worked on this a lot, so there is a good chance that with the right account size you could have enough profit on a monthly basis to cover the cases when it loses big. I won't try it now, since the lot sizes are too disproportionate compared with my target, but I appreciate your effort to share and improve the EA through collective thinking!Good luck!

20-40% performance fee (with high watermark) for Forex traders dans Traders Expérimentés Jan 22, 2012 at 08:34

Hi Pedro,We were talking about Martingale in the sense that it's almost always bad. Especially if you go too far with it. And looking at your account, I see exactly the same thing: you start with 0.01 lots, and end with 1.28 lots. What happens if the pair did not retrace after you opened those 1.28 lots? You'll open 2.56, right? Then 5.12 and so on, until the margin call will end your suffering.http://www.myfxbook.com/members/bfe00325/forex-farmer-v20-gallant-fx/19442201.04.2012 17:48 01.09.2012 06:40 EURUSD Buy 0.01 1.16870 1.27220 1.29470 1.27220 -225.0 -22.49 4d -0.39% 01....

20-40% performance fee (with high watermark) for Forex traders dans Traders Expérimentés Jan 22, 2012 at 08:22

One fact is that you decided to hide the history for that account.I'm sorry, but increasing the lot size 100 times inside a basket of trades is totally not in line with my risk management approach, so I won't be following your account. If it will last 100 years from now on, good for you and your clients!

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 08:17

Thanks a lot, Will!I'm 99% sure the algo does not use ticks. I have 2 reasons for saying that:- processing for trades (open, change SL, close) is done at 15 minutes mark (exception: trades closed via SL, but that happens outside of the algo - the broker just closes the order because SL level is hit); that tells me the algo is only doing its calculation at the beginning of each new M15 bar, and does not care about intra-bar ticks- backtesting was extremely fast; it was so fast that in the beginning I though something went wrong and the terminal just ran through the whole data just reporting...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 01:40

Thanks Krana!Yes, I also want to see more tests before trading real money with more than 1 microlot.But I will disagree with "demo is no proof" in this particular case. Considering the EA enters trades at normal times (as opposed to MDP which trades only on volatility spikes, for example), a demo and a live account would have almost the same exact fills.Yes, depending on the broker you could get slipped a bit on the real account, which does not happen on the demo, and that's why I said "almost the same exact fills". I plan to move the EA to real money account(s) after i...

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 22, 2012 at 01:34

Hmm... All I have is the strategy report .gif and .htm. They don't show the entries/exist better than what I already posted on myfxbook. I imagine you want something like the attached image (taken from the forward test account). Can you tell me how you get that for backtesting? (other than running a visual backtest, which I'm not going to do, since is taking too long).

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 21, 2012 at 22:15

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 21, 2012 at 21:58

Not much. I mean, I don't have anything like "insider info". I have the results of 2011 tickdata backtesting, which I uploaded to myfxbook and just made public, for all 4 tested pairs (USDCAD is missing). You can see them in my profile, and I'll write a short post here, in a moment, with all the links.

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 21, 2012 at 20:22

Thank you, Mike! I'm in a very similar position: MDP works for me (after a lot of work - by now it's recognized as the most broker sensitive MT4 EA), and FFM looks like a very complementary strategy. If it lives up to only half or even a third of the sales page "proof", I'll be happy. If not, I'll have the opportunity to test how click2sell refund works ;)

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 21, 2012 at 20:19

Thanks Steve! Yes, forward testing will show more light, absolutely. Over the weekend I'll post more about the reasons I decided to jump in so early and do all this experiments.

Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus dans Général Jan 21, 2012 at 09:21

Hi everyone,FFM seems to be the new kid on the block. I decided to jump in as soon as the early bird doors opened, and started 2 forward tests right away. Then on Friday and today did a bunch of 99% quality backtests, out of which 4 (all for EURUSD) ware uploaded to myfxbook and made public. For links and more details, see the post on my blog:http://nextlevelforex.com/blog/2012/01/21/fast-forex-millions-metatrader-expert-advisor-review/I'll use this thread to post updates on my analysis and testing.Cheers,Remus

EURUSD	1.0846	GBPUSD	1.274	AUDUSD	0.66473
USDJPY	157.267	USDCAD	1.3628	USDCHF	0.9023