Posts de psaTrading

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 08, 2016 at 13:43

Chinese economic indicators support the decision of the IMF, the OECD and more recently the World Bank to reduce estimates for global growth. Yesterday, the World Bank said it expects the world economy to grow only 2.40% in 2016 compared to the previous 2.90%.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 07, 2016 at 12:50

Beyond the issue associated with the future of interest rates in the US (and its impact on the Euro), European investors will begin to give increasing weight to the referendum on the United Kingdom staying in the European Union, to be held on 23 this month. After a great advantage in favor of permanence, recent surveys point to a minimum differential between the two camps. In addition to surveys, investors have monitored the odds that the bookmakers have assigned to each scenario. Another barometer is the evolution of the British Pound. An appreciation of the British currency may indicate a gr...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 06, 2016 at 14:26

Although the unemployment rate is very sensitive to statistical adjustments, a decline as steep unemployment in weak job creation scenario is a rather contradictory combination. The only certainty that stemmed from this report is that wages continue to grow (0.20% monthly; 2.50% in annual terms), confirming the trend of recent months. The main reading from this report is that increases uncertainty about the future of monetary policy in the US. This indicator raises the question whether after this data (which should probably be revised upwards next month) is sufficiently striking for the Fed to...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 03, 2016 at 11:41

On one hand, rising wages increases consumption and reflexively boosts GDP. On the other hand, the increase in wages generates inflation (increasing production costs and intensifying the demand for goods and services), helping the Fed to achieve the desired 2%. Thus, the two main employment report variables will be job creation and change in wages. Most likely, it is sufficient that only one of the two variables increase to reinforce the likelihood of an increase in US interest rates. Even if there a significant reduction in employment but accompanied by a rise in wages, the Fed may consider t...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 02, 2016 at 10:23

During the press conference, Mario Draghi should reiterate that monetary policy remains accommodative. It will be interesting to see if Mario Draghi will mention some risks approaching on the horizon, as the referendum in England (June 23) and the legislative elections in Spain (26 June).

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Jun 01, 2016 at 09:06

After trading above 50 USD / barrel on both sides of the Atlantic, crude has in recent hours a sharp devaluation. This downward movement is explained by the approach of the OPEC meeting tomorrow (which led some investors to profit taking), the statements of the Minister of the UAE oil (which reports that it is satisfied with the current market conditions, away so the scene of a freeze on production) and the disappointing data of the Chinese economy.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 31, 2016 at 10:22

After a few weeks of under-performance, Chinese stocks were boosted by a Goldman Sachs study that assigns a probability between 50% and 70% of some types of Chinese shares to be included in the MSCI indices. These indices serve as a benchmark for many global managers. So, after being included in these indexes, global managers necessarily have to buy them for their portfolios. In Japan industrial production rose 0.30%, while household spending has retreated to 0.40%.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 30, 2016 at 15:03

Today, US markets will be closed, celebrating the Memorial Day. On this day are reminded Americans who have died in all military conflicts since the Civil War. This date marks the beginning of the period in which Americans begin to enjoy the summer holidays.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 27, 2016 at 17:02

The Chairman of the Fed has been, within the executive committee, the more conciliatory with the financial markets, and the one whom have shown more prudent in relation to a change in monetary policy.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 26, 2016 at 15:24

The stock market is extending the gains made in the previous sessions, supported by the statements of a member of the Fed, the positive indications of the real estate market, and the buying that have flocked to the technology sector.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 25, 2016 at 10:41

The rise in European markets during yesterday’s session was due in part to the recent decline of the euro. Despite the depreciation of the European currency has started two weeks ago, only recently (when finally broke the 12.01 against the dollar) is that stock markets began to react to this movement. The depreciation of the Euro does not always translate into a recovery of European markets; often translates into a mere over-performance compared to their American counterparts. Despite the devaluation of the past few weeks (which was due to a higher probability of a rise in US interest ra...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 24, 2016 at 15:18

What an expressive rising effect on European Shares as Euro Falls!

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 23, 2016 at 14:28

Today begins one week quite intense in terms of interventions of members of the Fed. After the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, investors will find out whether the position of the various members of the Fed remain. In fact, the meeting was held on 26 and 27 April, before they were published a series of economic data which pointed to a slowdown in the US economy. For today are scheduled interventions of Governors of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, San Francisco and Philadelphia.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 20, 2016 at 18:42

The first consequence of the prospect of an increase in interest rates was a generalized rise in US interest rates in the bond and money markets. With this increase becomes more attractive hold dollars because they are remunerated at a higher interest rate than the Euro and the Yen (two currencies with a perception of risk almost identical to the US dollar). But the appreciation of the dollar makes the purchase of commodities (whose price is expressed in US dollars) more expensive for European and Asian buyers. On the other hand, with the appreciation of the dollar (depreciation of the Euro) b...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 19, 2016 at 15:32

From now on, investors will scrutinize with greater attention the publication of economic data and the behavior of monetary and bond markets, which are the most sensitive to monetary policy.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 18, 2016 at 15:12

The reason for yesterday’s fall is related to the relationship between inflation, the Fed and economic growth. Inflation, as measured by consumer prices, recorded the largest monthly increase in the last three years (0.40 +%). To this increase contributed the rising fuel prices, housing rents and some medical services. In annual terms, the consumer price index stood at 1.10%. When excluded the most volatile goods, inflation stood at 02.10%, up from 2% desired by the Fed. Although the Central Bank has a preference for inflation associated with the household expenses, today’s data co...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 17, 2016 at 19:57

Today is the anniversary of the New York Stock Exchange, which was founded on May 17, 1792, when it was signed the Buttonwood Agreement.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 16, 2016 at 16:28

Asian indexes closed higher, despite the worrying signs coming from the Chinese economy. The economic data in China continue to justify the seizure of investors. On Saturday, it was published that industrial production grew 6% in April, less than 6.50% anticipated by economists. Equally disappointing was the investment in fixed capital, in the same month increased 10.50%, short of the 10.90% forecast. Retail sales, which include some public entities expenses increased 10.10% in April, a lower variation than 10.50% anticipated. As private investment, domestic consumption is one of the prioritie...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 13, 2016 at 11:58

Asian markets closed with losses of more than 1%, explained by the weakness of Wall Street. The declines were particularly marked in Japan due to the appreciation of the Yen. The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan, whose decision not to adopt more stimulus measures deeply disappointed the market, revealed that the Commission estimates a moderate GDP growth, although lower than previously anticipated.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders May 12, 2016 at 12:06

Although private consumption has been one of the most resilient elements of the US economy in the 1st quarter, its growth is still modest especially in the light of the various positive factors that have favored household income as rising wages, the psychological effect caused by low unemployment, reduced interest rates (to reduce the financial burden), the decline in fuel prices, etc. Thus, the weakness of the retail sector and doubts at the macroeconomic level have spread up to more cyclical sectors, with the exception of the oil sector.

EURUSD	1.13029	GBPUSD	1.32807	AUDUSD	0.64652
USDJPY	144.079	USDCAD	1.38127	USDCHF	0.82326

Advertisement