Posts de psaTrading

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Dec 04, 2015 at 16:44

Before the joint committee of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives), Janet Yellen reiterated its confidence that the US economy is recovering, based on the improvement of the labor market and the factors that are limiting inflation should diminish in next year.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Dec 02, 2015 at 10:36

American indices closed higher, boosted by some consumption data and seasonal factors. Yesterday were published Cyber Monday sales that surprised by the positive. Given the same Monday last year, online sales grew 16%, a growth rate higher than the 12% estimated. This variation reassure many investors who had been concerned about the disappointing sales in stores and shopping centers. Another variable that inspired buyers is that December is traditionally a positive month for equities. Generally, the pattern of this month is characterized by an initial rise during the first week, followed by...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Dec 01, 2015 at 12:22

At sector level, mining shares may be highlighted by positive due to the appreciation in the price of various metals in the Asian session, which should ensure the FTSE100 one overperformance due to the weight that these companies have in the English index.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 30, 2015 at 12:43

This week will be particularly intense, with the completion of the ECB meeting on Thursday and the publication of the employment report in the US the next day. These two events are preceded by the release of other economic indicators, in an environment marked by high geopolitical risk. This environment of uncertainty should result in greater volatility. However, given what happened in recent weeks, economic issues should overlap to the terrorist threat in Europe and geopolitical tension lived in Turkey and Syria. One big question is whether the majority of European investors has positioned its...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 27, 2015 at 12:20

Yesterday, US markets were closed, to celebrate the Thanksgiving Day. Today, the session will be shorter, ending at 18h00 (GMT). The day is called Black Friday, which marks the official start of the Christmas Season sales, which coincides with the most profitable period of the retail chains. In recent years, with the expansion of online sales the importance of Black Friday has been losing some importance for Cyber Monday. At the economic level, the Christmas sales is usually a good barometer of the mood of American consumers and as such are one of the factors that influence the equity market...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 26, 2015 at 12:09

US markets ended without major fluctuations, with the Dow Jones recording the lowest intraday variation of this year. During the first phase of the session, investors reacted to various economic data. After the reaction to economic indicators, many fund managers prepared for the Action Day of Thanksgiving that will usher in a prolonged weekend, to the extent that on Friday the session on Wall Street will be shorter, so many investors are away from their trading rooms. Today is Thanksgiving Day, which is celebrated every year on the fourth Thursday of November.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 25, 2015 at 09:31

In recent weeks, the DAX has overperformed compared to its European peers. The main reason for this behavior is related to the weak expression that mining and oil companies have in the German index. The overperformance has been based on the good performance of more cyclical stocks such as chemical, automotive and industrial companies. Favoring these sectors is the fact that the Chinese slowdown have already been incorporated in the outlook of investors and the weakness of the Euro. However, in the short term, falling European currency begins to reach extreme levels, so it is not to exclude the...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 24, 2015 at 11:46

In Shanghai prudence prevailed since the new IPO’s will may lead many investors to sell shares in order to participate in such operations.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 23, 2015 at 12:34

At the moment, the Volkswagen scandal has not affected economic activity in Germany and it is too early that watch possible impacts originated by the attacks of Paris. The effects of terrorist attacks can only be evaluated in the coming months. However, for some sectors, such as tourism and transport, the consequences are already visible. According to the union of hotels and restaurants, last week in Paris revenues in bars and restaurants fell 44% and the occupancy rate of hotels was only 57%.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 20, 2015 at 10:41

Today will be the most important day of the Euro Finance Week, which began on Monday. The most important communication will be to Mario Draghi. In the last two weeks, the interventions of the ECB’s members have been quite a row, with investors waiting by the promise that the central bank will soon expand its quantitative easing policy. At the end of the session is not to exclude the occurrence of a selling pressure. Usually when the geopolitical risk is high, many short term investors avoid having a high exposure to the market during the weekend. Thus, if during this period occurs any ne...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 19, 2015 at 14:35

The rise in interest rates should not have a significant impact on the American economy. Considering a timeline of one year if the rates are situated somewhere between 0.50% and 1% (according to the forecasts of economists), remain at historically low levels and as such should not significantly affect investment nor recourse to credit by households. The impact of rising interest rates should feel via appreciation of the dollar. However, this movement is already embedded part in the current quotation of the American currency. The appreciation of the dollar should feel more in terms of the resul...

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 18, 2015 at 15:21

Despite the uncertainty and tension that exists in Europe and the Middle East, the situation of the equity markets appears to be positive and after the publication of the October employment report there has been a greater propensity to risk, however this idea results from a survey prepared before the tragic events of Paris. Interestingly, this greater propensity to risk coexists with an increased likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 17, 2015 at 18:39

The central theme of the current situation is the monetary policy of the Fed. Since the publication of the employment report for October, the currency markets gave a high probability of a rise in interest rates at the December meeting (currently 70%). This week will be published two key indicators that will allow us to have a clearer vision of what will be the decision of the Central Bank in December (The minutes of the last meeting of the Fed and inflation).

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 16, 2015 at 12:34

Because of these tragic events can not be excluded that investors will take on a greater geopolitical risk in their investment decisions in the oil market.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 13, 2015 at 15:08

Oil continues to suffer the pressure generated by solid evidence of an oversupply and strength of the dollar. Yesterday, the US Department of Energy revealed that last week the oil reserves of the country increased by 4.2 million barrels instead of the 790 000 estimated.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 12, 2015 at 17:08

A factor that marked the session was the weakness of oil. Yesterday it was reported that off the US and China are dozens of supertankers with about 100 million barrels on board. The cargo of these ships belong often to commodities trading companies awaiting the rise of crude price to sell the barrels they hold.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 11, 2015 at 12:25

Investors will now focus their attention to the intervention of Mario Draghi at an event organized by the Central Bank of England at 13:15.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 10, 2015 at 17:06

It's quite likely that there will be a relatively “traumatic event” in global markets once the current period of low interest rates comes to an end.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 09, 2015 at 14:11

It is difficult to find any weaknesses in Friday’s employment report. Thus, the odds of an increase in interest rates rose to 70% compared to 58% the day before and 39% from the end of October.

Trading Journal dans Nouveaux traders Nov 06, 2015 at 15:36

Traders boosted bets that the Fed will raise rates next month after the labor report.

EURUSD	1.13167	GBPUSD	1.32954	AUDUSD	0.64703
USDJPY	143.724	USDCAD	1.3811	USDCHF	0.82217

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