"Just Oil"

Apr 29, 2011 at 16:28
54,941流覽
1,794 Replies
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 10:20
stocks should be better but it is totally different environment. frist I should complete my mission on FX. then should move next step.
have some odds to change in my mind. stop thinking mass and start thinking retail. one by one.

會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 13:41
Yeah, environment is completely different. market makers do run stops and greed and fear rule! There is no greed and fear in FX market. Most of the money are institutional and banks.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 20:54 (已編輯Jun 23, 2012 at 21:04)
I was thinking that trading with no hard stop might have sense. The leverage obviously has to be kept lower and trade should be closed at loss only when signal is given that trend reversed. The logic is simple, if I start looking for trade in one direction after I have a signal then it also should be a signal to close trade at at loss. otherwise trades might get stopped and whipsawed leading to more losses than needed.
All in all I will open 2 accounts and trade one same way i trade now and second will be with smaller position size per trade but hard stop only for catastrophic loss if something unexpected happens and in all other cases whatever signal made me starting looking for trade will take me out of trade gone against me.
The rest will be the same. The difference is smaller size per pip and no hard stop (except far catastrophic stop) and stop on opposite signal.
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 21:12
that is the correct way.
I ahd tested that with coding and manually,

here are the results.
by coding profits getting lover while system is wating for exit signal. mechanical. most of the time closing with loss instead of profit.

by manuallly,
when you make correct desecions it gives great results. and you can double your account, but if not you can half your account.
the issue is the desecion you take is doubling with that system. and the worst scenario is making wrong desecins on both entry&exit

walker




Chikot posted:
I was thinking that trading with no hard stop might have sense. The leverage obviously has to be kept lower and trade should be closed at loss only when signal is given that trend reversed. The logic is simple, if I start looking for trade in one direction after I have a signal then it also should be a signal to close trade at at loss. otherwise trades might get stopped and whipsawed leading to more losses than needed.
All in all I will open 2 accounts and trade one same way i trade now and second will be with smaller position size per trade but hard stop only for catastrophic loss if something unexpected happens and in all other cases whatever signal made me starting looking for trade will take me out of trade gone against me.
The rest will be the same. The difference is smaller size per pip and no hard stop (except far catastrophic stop) and stop on opposite signal.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 21:44 (已編輯Jun 23, 2012 at 21:44)
exit at loss is mechanical. also position at profit closed mechanically completely if signal at opposite direction happens but entry depends on additional price action signal thus it is discretionary.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 23, 2012 at 22:19 (已編輯Jun 23, 2012 at 22:19)

stevewalker posted:
that is the correct way.
I ahd tested that with coding and manually,

here are the results.
by coding profits getting lover while system is wating for exit signal. mechanical. most of the time closing with loss instead of profit.

by manuallly,
when you make correct desecions it gives great results. and you can double your account, but if not you can half your account.
the issue is the desecion you take is doubling with that system. and the worst scenario is making wrong desecins on both entry&exit

walker




Chikot posted:
I was thinking that trading with no hard stop might have sense. The leverage obviously has to be kept lower and trade should be closed at loss only when signal is given that trend reversed. The logic is simple, if I start looking for trade in one direction after I have a signal then it also should be a signal to close trade at at loss. otherwise trades might get stopped and whipsawed leading to more losses than needed.
All in all I will open 2 accounts and trade one same way i trade now and second will be with smaller position size per trade but hard stop only for catastrophic loss if something unexpected happens and in all other cases whatever signal made me starting looking for trade will take me out of trade gone against me.
The rest will be the same. The difference is smaller size per pip and no hard stop (except far catastrophic stop) and stop on opposite signal.



There are three keys here:
1. Low leverage. Lower than usually
2. Close at loss when signal given
3. Let profits run
4. Good trade / Money management which is discretional part.
5. preferably good entry
會員從Jan 02, 2012開始   44帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 10:44
Yes i know my loses are problematic, but you have to know that i opened the account in the beginning of the year, then i opened a few positions without looking at them again for some time..thats why i lost almost 9% at the beginning of may, but since then i handled the account daily and i managed to turn things around. The reason for my negative pips is that i close my losing position in several times, so a 100 pips loss closed in 5 times becomes 500 pips loss, not so pretty to look at :) Anyway I'm working on the MM part too, I lose too many little trades too, like Walker says it's difficult sometimes not to trade every day...trading is like hunting, you can not run around shooting on everything that moves..one day you will shoot in your foot and that will hurt :)

I notice that you have a lot of Winners, but when you have losses they are very big..it's the complete opposite of my trading :D

How long have you been trading FX?

Good luck next week!

mino
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 11:01
what I want to say is.
as there are wrong desecions on trade entries with fix tp sl, ( nature of trading ) there will be wrong desecions also on exit.
when desecions are correct, great but when things go wrong down speed is very fast.

key is desecions taken.

walker



Chikot posted:

stevewalker posted:
that is the correct way.
I ahd tested that with coding and manually,

here are the results.
by coding profits getting lover while system is wating for exit signal. mechanical. most of the time closing with loss instead of profit.

by manuallly,
when you make correct desecions it gives great results. and you can double your account, but if not you can half your account.
the issue is the desecion you take is doubling with that system. and the worst scenario is making wrong desecins on both entry&exit

walker




Chikot posted:
I was thinking that trading with no hard stop might have sense. The leverage obviously has to be kept lower and trade should be closed at loss only when signal is given that trend reversed. The logic is simple, if I start looking for trade in one direction after I have a signal then it also should be a signal to close trade at at loss. otherwise trades might get stopped and whipsawed leading to more losses than needed.
All in all I will open 2 accounts and trade one same way i trade now and second will be with smaller position size per trade but hard stop only for catastrophic loss if something unexpected happens and in all other cases whatever signal made me starting looking for trade will take me out of trade gone against me.
The rest will be the same. The difference is smaller size per pip and no hard stop (except far catastrophic stop) and stop on opposite signal.



There are three keys here:
1. Low leverage. Lower than usually
2. Close at loss when signal given
3. Let profits run
4. Good trade / Money management which is discretional part.
5. preferably good entry
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 11:05
BTW

please understand that leverage or Lot size has no effect on your trades unless you,
- stay in margin level
- manage your money with your win/loss frequency


those 2 parameters has effect on cost nothing else.

walker
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 13:22

minosd777 posted:
Yes i know my loses are problematic, but you have to know that i opened the account in the beginning of the year, then i opened a few positions without looking at them again for some time..thats why i lost almost 9% at the beginning of may, but since then i handled the account daily and i managed to turn things around. The reason for my negative pips is that i close my losing position in several times, so a 100 pips loss closed in 5 times becomes 500 pips loss, not so pretty to look at :) Anyway I'm working on the MM part too, I lose too many little trades too, like Walker says it's difficult sometimes not to trade every day...trading is like hunting, you can not run around shooting on everything that moves..one day you will shoot in your foot and that will hurt :)

I notice that you have a lot of Winners, but when you have losses they are very big..it's the complete opposite of my trading :D

How long have you been trading FX?

Good luck next week!

mino




Hi Mino, my losses are limited to about 1% of original balance so not very big and winners are taken by small increments... so, actually you need to calculate all small winners for certain trade... not just one compared to when i am 100% wrong and trade goes to stop without me taking something. I would say we have not see any big trend so far within this month. say 1000 pips or more. otherwise if my position were to survive even 01% close of my remaining position would be greater than total 100% position risk. why I am doing so, cause no one know if trend will continue.
I have been trading for about 3 and a half years by now. How long have you?
I see you do not have hard stops. I wonder, what's your criteria for closing trade at loss?
from what you say you are probably closing losing trades partially in small increments same way I am closing my winners, right?
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 13:24 (已編輯Jun 24, 2012 at 13:27)

minosd777 posted:
Yes i know my loses are problematic, but you have to know that i opened the account in the beginning of the year, then i opened a few positions without looking at them again for some time..thats why i lost almost 9% at the beginning of may, but since then i handled the account daily and i managed to turn things around. The reason for my negative pips is that i close my losing position in several times, so a 100 pips loss closed in 5 times becomes 500 pips loss, not so pretty to look at :) Anyway I'm working on the MM part too, I lose too many little trades too, like Walker says it's difficult sometimes not to trade every day...trading is like hunting, you can not run around shooting on everything that moves..one day you will shoot in your foot and that will hurt :)

I notice that you have a lot of Winners, but when you have losses they are very big..it's the complete opposite of my trading :D

How long have you been trading FX?

Good luck next week!

mino


Steve, no one can be 100% right and no amount of back testing can fix it.
I like how one trader told me: " You enter according to the system and you leave trade as best as you can." There is no sure thing in this business.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 13:26

stevewalker posted:
BTW

please understand that leverage or Lot size has no effect on your trades unless you,
- stay in margin level
- manage your money with your win/loss frequency


those 2 parameters has effect on cost nothing else.

walker



position size has influence upon DD. when you manage OPM you gotta have things in this regard under control, again, anything is possible. Remember May 6 , 2010? I went to appointment in the morning with market doing generally nothing special, I came back to see 700-1000 pips drop. Just an example. But overall trading with no hard stop requires far smaller position sizing.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 15:49

minosd777 posted:
Yes i know my loses are problematic, but you have to know that i opened the account in the beginning of the year, then i opened a few positions without looking at them again for some time..thats why i lost almost 9% at the beginning of may, but since then i handled the account daily and i managed to turn things around. The reason for my negative pips is that i close my losing position in several times, so a 100 pips loss closed in 5 times becomes 500 pips loss, not so pretty to look at :) Anyway I'm working on the MM part too, I lose too many little trades too, like Walker says it's difficult sometimes not to trade every day...trading is like hunting, you can not run around shooting on everything that moves..one day you will shoot in your foot and that will hurt :)

I notice that you have a lot of Winners, but when you have losses they are very big..it's the complete opposite of my trading :D

How long have you been trading FX?

Good luck next week!

mino


Mino, you looks like trend trading ? right? cause your winners are big. I actually looking to have total winners bigger than what i risk. obviously when you keep the whole position through the whole trend winner is bigger but I was hurt in the past by not taking profits on pretty big trades hence take profits in small increments. for you not trading every day should not be a problem cause you are not looking for small pips and good entries for big trades do not come every day.
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 16:47
thats are hard stops for.

last night I understand something.
as market do, traders has also a win/loss frequency. after 2-3 months of test accounts roughly I found my frequency.
"- manage your money with your win/loss frequency"

when this known, trader can stay in margin level with reasonable %DD with higher lot size.



Chikot posted:

stevewalker posted:
BTW

please understand that leverage or Lot size has no effect on your trades unless you,
- stay in margin level
- manage your money with your win/loss frequency


those 2 parameters has effect on cost nothing else.

walker



position size has influence upon DD. when you manage OPM you gotta have things in this regard under control, again, anything is possible. Remember May 6 , 2010? I went to appointment in the morning with market doing generally nothing special, I came back to see 700-1000 pips drop. Just an example. But overall trading with no hard stop requires far smaller position sizing.
會員從Jan 02, 2012開始   44帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 17:08
Yes just like you say : i close my losers in small increments and lately i have a lot of losers :p. In the future i will evolve more to a system where i take my losers in one time and very quick.

I'm not such a trend trader, i love to open and close positions and to find new ones...the reason i'm in positive is that i very agressively play the trades in which I believe...like the Euro trend down from may, the GAPS we have seen lately, I love to trade the EUR/YEN too. When i see something i like ( eg with a good R/R) then i shoot with the bazooka to maximize damage->profitability.

About the stops on my open trades: my EUR/$ short has a stop, the $/Yen not because i plan to increase my position to average my sell price..I now it's a very risky strategy to add to a losing position, but the $/Yen just has to come down...it's happens every time again..plus we are here to learn and experiment :)

I don't use EA's, don't follow anybody ( that's the worse thing you can do), only use technical analyses, fundamental (FOREXLIVE.COM is the best forex site on the internet with good and free info, almost in real time). On the basis of both i scrutinize the horizon to find a good trade to take...I'm still mad at myself to miss the SHORT on the AUD/$ trade on friday, it's was an obvious SHORT on the DAILY resistance line with a good R/R..stop on 70-80 pips and profit 150-200 pips lower, instead i BUYED the support of the broken Daily resistance trend line.

I like your GBP/AUD alot! shorted that too, but lost faith...Your AUD/YEN buys are very good too, the NZD also...i look forward at what you will do next week ;)

mino

會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 22:48

stevewalker posted:
thats are hard stops for.

last night I understand something.
as market do, traders has also a win/loss frequency. after 2-3 months of test accounts roughly I found my frequency.
"- manage your money with your win/loss frequency"

when this known, trader can stay in margin level with reasonable %DD with higher lot size.



Chikot posted:

stevewalker posted:
BTW

please understand that leverage or Lot size has no effect on your trades unless you,
- stay in margin level
- manage your money with your win/loss frequency


those 2 parameters has effect on cost nothing else.

walker



position size has influence upon DD. when you manage OPM you gotta have things in this regard under control, again, anything is possible. Remember May 6 , 2010? I went to appointment in the morning with market doing generally nothing special, I came back to see 700-1000 pips drop. Just an example. But overall trading with no hard stop requires far smaller position sizing.



I would stay with smaller size.
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 22:50

minosd777 posted:
Yes just like you say : i close my losers in small increments and lately i have a lot of losers :p. In the future i will evolve more to a system where i take my losers in one time and very quick.

I'm not such a trend trader, i love to open and close positions and to find new ones...the reason i'm in positive is that i very agressively play the trades in which I believe...like the Euro trend down from may, the GAPS we have seen lately, I love to trade the EUR/YEN too. When i see something i like ( eg with a good R/R) then i shoot with the bazooka to maximize damage->profitability.

About the stops on my open trades: my EUR/$ short has a stop, the $/Yen not because i plan to increase my position to average my sell price..I now it's a very risky strategy to add to a losing position, but the $/Yen just has to come down...it's happens every time again..plus we are here to learn and experiment :)

I don't use EA's, don't follow anybody ( that's the worse thing you can do), only use technical analyses, fundamental (FOREXLIVE.COM is the best forex site on the internet with good and free info, almost in real time). On the basis of both i scrutinize the horizon to find a good trade to take...I'm still mad at myself to miss the SHORT on the AUD/$ trade on friday, it's was an obvious SHORT on the DAILY resistance line with a good R/R..stop on 70-80 pips and profit 150-200 pips lower, instead i BUYED the support of the broken Daily resistance trend line.

I like your GBP/AUD alot! shorted that too, but lost faith...Your AUD/YEN buys are very good too, the NZD also...i look forward at what you will do next week ;)

mino




This Gbp?Aud got stuck bad at this level. i left this last small position in case if it still breaks. If it does there might be lots of pips and even this small position might get me more than I risked full size. Cross fingers and wait. aud/jpy also might go back to 88.00
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 22:51
I am waitring for Gbp/usd confirmation. gotta get up in about 6 hours to check upon what it will be doing.
stevewalker
forex_trader_79941
會員從Jun 06, 2012開始   1434帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 22:59
good luck!
會員從Jan 14, 2010開始   2279帖子
Jun 24, 2012 at 23:06
I want to see how daily candle closes. i am taking signals from Oanda. Oanda daily on Sunday closes at 12:00 EST tonight.
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