Winsor's Five Trading EAs in Real Time

My Forex Trading Monthly Performance Update

February 1, 2011 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (8 months).

Haley = -910 pips (-9.1%) after 515 trades with GBPUSD
Jasmine = +10,871 pips (+108.7%) after 806 trades with EURUSD
Leah = +6,451 pips (+64.5%) after 715 trades with EURUSD
Mellisa = -283 pips (-2.8%) after 499 trades with USDCHF
Sienna = -184 pips (-1.8%) after 884 trades with EURUSD

View my real money accounts updated daily with this link

http://myfxbook.com/members/winsor

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_install/CTSFOREX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Please vouch and rate us on our thread, your help is greatly appreciated. We have provided +12,332 winning pips since May 21, 2010 for our followers.

hi, would like u to manage my 10k account but am a bit confused,
is it better to go thru ur site directly or as i also see that ur on currensee.com, better to go thru there?

thks,
mel
[email protected]
416-701-0399

am in toronto, call me if u can..

Hi Mel,

I have sent you an email.

Winsor

How to make money during the Robot Losing Streak

February 10, 2011 Update

In the past few weeks both Jasmine and Leah have been making donations back to the market. I have been bombarded with concerning emails such as the one below.

“I chanced upon your thread and I like your trading philosophy. However, I noticed that the returns for the start of 2011 have not been doing particularly well. Is there a reason so? Has the robot lost its effectiveness?”

Here is my answer: after a string of winning trades, it is impossible to continue winning without giving some back to the market. The best time to use the robot is when it is losing. When the robot is losing, it has already absorbed some of the losses; hence, you will benefit more on the upswing. This is the reason why people should NOT jump from one trading system to another.

Do you know why money management is important? You don’t compound your trading lot size when you are winning. You make sure that you have enough capital to withstand a drawdown. You don’t jump onto a trading system when it is winning. You should always hold back when a trading system is winning. No trading system will continue to win without giving some back to the market. You always wait for a pull back period in order to turn on the trading system. This is known as timing. Always look for a pullback before jumping on.

Attached is a screen capture of Jasmine with its six EURUSD sell trades. It is currently floating with 394 pips profit.

My Forex Trading Monthly Performance Update

February 16, 2011 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (9 months).

Haley = -1,095 pips (-11%) after 533 trades with GBPUSD
Jasmine = +10,813 pips (+108%) after 844 trades with EURUSD
Leah = +6,512 pips (+65%) after 750 trades with EURUSD
Mellisa = -1,600 pips (-16%) after 513 trades with USDCHF
Sienna = -1,091 pips (-11%) after 917 trades with EURUSD

View my real money accounts updated daily with this link

http://myfxbook.com/members/winsor

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_install/CTSFOREX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Please vouch and rate us on our thread, your help is greatly appreciated. We have provided +12,332 winning pips since May 21, 2010 for our followers.

My Speaking Engagement at the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts

February 22, 2011

Hi everyone,

I have been busy with preparation for my speaking engagement tonight. It is going to be fun as I have done it many times before. Below is tonight revenue.

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, Vancouver February Meeting
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Burnaby Public Library, Tommy Douglas Branch 7311 Kingsway Burnaby, BC V3J 0A2
Burnaby, British Columbia
https://store.csta.org/event_registration.php?key=468


Speaker: Winsor Hoang, Registered Professional Engineer

Men vs. Machines in Currency Trading

Why do more hedge funds opt for Engineers instead MBAs? A new chess player with the aid of a computer can beat a grandmaster. Why can’t computers help a trader succeed in trading? Everyone has greed, fear and lack of discipline. Can automated algorithmic trading be the solution?

Winsor graduated first class from BCIT in 1994 and received his electrical engineering degree with honors from the University of Victoria in 1997. Winsor has worked for large Canadian high tech companies such as: PMC-Sierra, Sierra Wireless, Nortel Networks and Research in Motion (RIM) as a Test Engineer specializing in automated test systems.

Winsor Hoang has over 12 years of trading experience in both stock and Forex markets. Guided by a belief that automated trading would be a valuable tool for the average investors, he began developing expert advisors for the Metatrader 4 platform. Being both a good trader and a talented engineer, Winsor was able to apply his skills in high tech automation and transferred them into Forex automated trading systems. He currently has over 1,000 followers with a total balance of more than $5,000,000 trading his software. His proprietary currency trading solutions help financial institutions, and traders make more money in trading.

My Forex Trading Monthly Performance Update

March 2, 2011 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (9 months).

Haley = -1,024 pips (-10.21%) after 533 trades with GBPUSD
Jasmine = +10,472 pips (+104.68%) after 904 trades with EURUSD
Leah = +5,623 pips (+56.17%) after 811 trades with EURUSD
Mellisa = -1,673 pips (-16.74%) after 519 trades with USDCHF
Sienna = -1,907 pips (-19.07%) after 952 trades with EURUSD

View my real money accounts updated daily with this link

http://myfxbook.com/members/winsor

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_install/CTSFOREX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

IBM Computer Taking on 'Jeopardy!' Champs

Here is another example of Man vs. Machine. Guess who came out on top and how this can be applied to forex trading?

My Forex Trading Monthly Performance Update

March 31, 2011 Update

FYI, April Fool is tomorrow; hence, I am posting the results one day early. Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (10.5 months).

Haley = -2,115 pips (-21.2%) after 647 trades with GBPUSD
Jasmine = +10,621 pips (+106.22%) after 988 trades with EURUSD
Leah = +5,583 pips (+55.83%) after 918 trades with EURUSD
Mellisa = -995 pips (-9.96%) after 574 trades with USDCHF
Sienna = -1,270 pips (-12.7%) after 1076 trades with EURUSD

View my real money accounts updated daily with this link

http://myfxbook.com/members/winsor

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_install/CTSFOREX_dot_COM.zip

1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Excerpt from "Fooled by Randomess", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: If you engaged in a Russian roulette-type strategy with a low probability of large loss, one that bankrupts you every several years, you are likely to show up as the winner in almost all samples - except in the year when you are dead.

btw, Taleb's book mostly about options trading.

Are you sure that we are talking about the same book? I would highly recommend it to any traders. It is funny to read, very insightful, and extremely brilliance.

Since all of my trading are done by my expert advisors, I am reading lots and am enjoying my free time.

I am sure we are :) What I meant is Nero and Taleb himself were trading options, right?
I have been through few black swans by now starting form August 2008 till few weeks ago Japan earthquake.
None had any impact upon me. Went to appointment, came back, saw market dropped on May 6. I was flat. same with Japanese earthquake :)
But options traders they are always in the market...

This book actually help me to improve my risk control significantly. we never know when sh*t can hit the fan. it might happen any moment, hence risk control must be top notch.

Chikot,

Yes, you are correct. Taleb is an option trader but the book is not about option trading. It is about luck in life, in business, and also in trading. Trading without a stop loss or using martingale betting is playing Russian Roullette with your account. Most of the time, you will come out a winner until the black swan catches up with you.

yeah, as soon as I see no stop trading and consistent returns I know the final results. not interested.

I found the concept of Monte Carlo experiments very interesting in the book. Consider the difference between finding a square root using the Newton-Raphson method, and estimating the value of Pi with the Buffon's needle experiment.

In the first case, you are closer to the final number in every iteration.
In the second case, you don't know if the next needle drop will get you any closer, in fact, quite often it won't:



http://www.angelfire.com/wa/hurben/buff.html

Similar in trading and in those Monte Carlo experiments mentioned in the book, that you never know the next roll of the dice ...

Speki,

Thanks for sharing the link with us. It took me 1869 tries to get to pi. I designed my trading systems before I read his book. It was intuitive for me to have more than 1,200 trades over a period of 12 years. Having a large statistical sample, I was able to avoid curve fitting. Also I was able to identify the drawdown period also known as the black swan. Fooled by Randomness is truly thought-provoking.

Confessions of an Investor by Niels Jensen

Absolute Return Partners

“When models turn on, brains turn off.”
–Til Schulman

The Japanese disaster

Contrary to common belief, the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was not a direct result of the 9.0 earthquake which hit Northeastern Japan on 11 March. In fact, all 16 reactors in the earthquake zone, including the six at the Fukushima plant, shut down within two minutes of the quake, as they were designed to do. But Fukushima is a relatively old nuclear facility – also known as second generation - which requires continuous power supply to provide cooling (the newer third generation reactors are designed with a self-cooling system which doesn’t require uninterrupted power).

When the quake devastated the area around Fukushima, and the primary power supply was cut off, the diesel generators took over as planned, and the cooling continued. But then came the tsunami. Around the Fukushima plant was a protection wall designed to withstand a 5.2 metre tsunami, as the area is prone to tsunamis. However, this particular one was the mother of all tsunamis. When a 14 metre high wall of water, mud and debris hit the nuclear facility, the diesel generators were wiped out as well. But the story doesn’t end there, because Fukushima had a second line of defence – batteries which could keep the cooling running for another nine hours, supposedly enough to re-establish the power lines to the facility. However, the devastation around the area was so immense that the nine hours proved hopelessly inadequate. The rest is history, as they say.

Other tail risk events

I have included this sad tale in order to put the concept of risk into perspective. You cannot quantify a risk factor such as this one because, if you try to do so, the prevailing models will tell you that this should never happen. Take the October 1987 crash on NYSE. It was supposedly a 21.6 standard deviation (SD) event. 21.6 SD events happen once every 44*1099 years according to the mathematicians amongst my friends1(1096 is called sexdecillion, but I am not even sure if there is a name for 1099). The universe is ‘only’ about 13.7*109 years old (that is 13.7 billion years). Put differently, 19 October 1987 should quite simply never have happened. But it did. (My source is Cuno Pümpin, a retired professor of Economics at St. Gallen University.)

So did the Asian currency crisis which resulted in massive losses in October 1997, which statistically should only have happened once every 3 billion years or so. By comparison, our planet is ‘only’ about 2 billion years old. And the LTCM which created mayhem in August 1998 was apparently a once every 10 sextillion years (1021) event. And I could go on and on. The models we use to quantify risk are hopelessly inadequate to deal with tail risk for the simple reason that stock market returns do not follow the pattern assumed by the models (a normal distribution).