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Feb 04, 2013 at 15:47
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4 Replies
forex_trader_79725
會員從Jun 04, 2012開始
5帖子
Feb 04, 2013 at 15:47
Hi
What do you think about this search:
http://www.myfxbook.com/systems#?pt=6&p=1&profitType=0&profitValue=0&ageType=0&ageValue=730&drawType=1&drawValue=10&systemType=0&tradingType=0&accountType=2&lastTraded=90&size=20&tradesType=0&serverOid=0&sb=19&st=2
I mean: just 6 systems older than 2 years with a drawdown < 10% and with (a modest) benefit...
Coments are welcome!
What do you think about this search:
http://www.myfxbook.com/systems#?pt=6&p=1&profitType=0&profitValue=0&ageType=0&ageValue=730&drawType=1&drawValue=10&systemType=0&tradingType=0&accountType=2&lastTraded=90&size=20&tradesType=0&serverOid=0&sb=19&st=2
I mean: just 6 systems older than 2 years with a drawdown < 10% and with (a modest) benefit...
Coments are welcome!
會員從May 30, 2012開始
124帖子
Feb 04, 2013 at 15:57
Trade big or don't trade at all?
I mean, what are you looking for :)
are you just looking a low DD and > 0% gain
There are other financial instruments out there to gain money safely, if you want safe.
I mean, what are you looking for :)
are you just looking a low DD and > 0% gain
There are other financial instruments out there to gain money safely, if you want safe.
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
forex_trader_33781
會員從Apr 11, 2011開始
200帖子
Feb 04, 2013 at 19:00
(已編輯Feb 04, 2013 at 19:00)
The first system is incredibly deceptive using Custom Analysis. Go check "All" for the dates to see what they are hiding. Negative 48.5% gain and 84% drawdown. Or even use 01/2010 as starting point. Losing system. They have nice gains December 2012-present but their balance could be just a couple dollars. Anybody can tweak their results by adjusting starting/ending dates. Hiding balances also leaves out the capital perspective.
As for the other systems, 14% gain in 2 years isn't all that great.....you could almost do better just investing the S&P. And wanting drawdown less than 10% is entirely unrealistic. If you don't want drawdown then buy T-bonds 😁. Winning/losing trades come in streaks due to randomness. Restricting yourself to such tight drawdown means you will quit trading after 5 losing trades. And the probability of losing 5 trades in a row is about 91% with a 45% win rate in a sample of 50 trades. Probability of 10 losing trades in a row? Only about 10%. Say you were in that 10%, still that is only a drawdown of 20%, which is fairly reasonable. My max is 25% and I'm comfortable with that, because any more and you are having to gain double to recover losses.
As for the other systems, 14% gain in 2 years isn't all that great.....you could almost do better just investing the S&P. And wanting drawdown less than 10% is entirely unrealistic. If you don't want drawdown then buy T-bonds 😁. Winning/losing trades come in streaks due to randomness. Restricting yourself to such tight drawdown means you will quit trading after 5 losing trades. And the probability of losing 5 trades in a row is about 91% with a 45% win rate in a sample of 50 trades. Probability of 10 losing trades in a row? Only about 10%. Say you were in that 10%, still that is only a drawdown of 20%, which is fairly reasonable. My max is 25% and I'm comfortable with that, because any more and you are having to gain double to recover losses.
forex_trader_79725
會員從Jun 04, 2012開始
5帖子
Feb 05, 2013 at 13:15
Hi!
Thanks for your comments :-)
Regarding the Financialarts question (What I'm looking for), well, I'm just trying to get an answer to the question that probably many people here has in mind: it is really possible to get a good performance in the forex market for a long time and with a low drawdown...? (perhaps 10% of drawdown is too much, but I wanted to emphasize on this on purpose...).
Initially, the answer seems to be "yes", but only for very few people according this site stats. But considering the comments of Splexin about the first system, the result is even lower than I was considering...
Just would like to receive opinions about why this happens ... Is it possible expand this statistic forex market in general? Do you think this is because the forex market itself ...?
Thanks for your comments :-)
Regarding the Financialarts question (What I'm looking for), well, I'm just trying to get an answer to the question that probably many people here has in mind: it is really possible to get a good performance in the forex market for a long time and with a low drawdown...? (perhaps 10% of drawdown is too much, but I wanted to emphasize on this on purpose...).
Initially, the answer seems to be "yes", but only for very few people according this site stats. But considering the comments of Splexin about the first system, the result is even lower than I was considering...
Just would like to receive opinions about why this happens ... Is it possible expand this statistic forex market in general? Do you think this is because the forex market itself ...?
forex_trader_43716
會員從Aug 06, 2011開始
326帖子
Feb 06, 2013 at 20:55
Splexin posted:
The first system is incredibly deceptive using Custom Analysis. Go check "All" for the dates to see what they are hiding. Negative 48.5% gain and 84% drawdown. Or even use 01/2010 as starting point. Losing system. They have nice gains December 2012-present but their balance could be just a couple dollars. Anybody can tweak their results by adjusting starting/ending dates. Hiding balances also leaves out the capital perspective.
As for the other systems, 14% gain in 2 years isn't all that great.....you could almost do better just investing the S&P. And wanting drawdown less than 10% is entirely unrealistic. If you don't want drawdown then buy T-bonds 😁. Winning/losing trades come in streaks due to randomness. Restricting yourself to such tight drawdown means you will quit trading after 5 losing trades. And the probability of losing 5 trades in a row is about 91% with a 45% win rate in a sample of 50 trades. Probability of 10 losing trades in a row? Only about 10%. Say you were in that 10%, still that is only a drawdown of 20%, which is fairly reasonable. My max is 25% and I'm comfortable with that, because any more and you are having to gain double to recover losses.
Always worth reading Splexin comments! 😎
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